Monthly Asset Class Report

Stocks get hit again, as does crypto, but March’s open point to a big rally. Were you forwarded this email? [Sign-up to Rude Awakening here.]( [Unsubscribe]( [The Rude Awakening] If there’s anything you’ve missed as part of your membership to Rude Awakening, make sure you check out our website where you can find archives, updates, and everything else that's included in your subscription. You can access it by [clicking here now](. Monthly Asset Class Report - Big caps got hammered, small caps did ok. - Bonds rallied in February, but this will probably be short-lived. - Cryptos had a rough month, but they’ve had a great start to March. Recommended Link [The CRASH Will Be Fast, Bloody and Unavoidable]( [Click here for more...]( A massive market crash could be as early as March 10th. [This new must-see presentation]( exactly how and WHEN it could happen… You’ll learn 5 CRITICAL steps every American should take to help protect themselves. And details a strategy we believe has the power to 10X your money while the market tanks. So there is NO time to sit by and wait for it to happen. Because if and when this next crash hits… It will be FAST and it will be BLOODY. [Watch This Video Now]( Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Happy Tuesday to you! Both the SPX and Nazzie fell for February, but the Russell 2000 small caps surprisingly recovered. In the case of the Russell, I imagine that sellers just tired a bit and that selling will resume in March. Bonds across the board recovered somewhat, perhaps because the markets thought the hiking cycle might be lessened. But it could’ve been because the selling pressure had been immense for a while, and the markets required a respite. After getting crushed in the first part of the month, real estate recovered and is comfortably back in no man’s land. Copper hasn’t done much for a year, but gold and silver look like they’re off life support and are rallying nicely. I’ve set some price levels on their charts, lest I get too excited! Crypto had an ugly February, but March 1st is a treat, as there’s been a substantial rally across the crypto board. I imagine many normies are now looking into crypto, especially Ukrainian, Russian, and Canadian citizens worried about harsh regulation. One note before we begin, I’ve zoomed out on most of the charts to get a bigger picture. So most of them are weekly charts, with 10 and 40-week moving average lines, which correspond to 50 and 200-day moving averages. With that said, let’s get to the charts… S&P 500 Ukraine? I crane! We all crane for a view of the markets while the invasion of Ukraine proceeds. This is a policymaking disaster not only politically, but it throws a wrench in the cogs for Chairman Powell. Will Jay still raise? How many times? Your guess is as good as mine. But I will say that as a death cross is imminent (50-day moving average moving below the 200-day MA), this market may have already put in its top. Nasdaq Composite The Nazzie has already had its death cross. With inflation ramping up, supply chains still clogged, and a war going on, I think we’re in for an ugly first half of this year. Russell 2000 (Small caps) We slightly recovered the small caps last month, much to my surprise. I still think heading to $160 is the likeliest scenario, but it hasn’t gone that way yet. The US 10-Year Yield I zoomed out a bit on this one for context. That little blue box shows a repudiation of the uptrend, but it’s only a little one. I expect the trend to resume in line with how hard the Fed goes into the hiking cycle. Dollar Index From last month, but it nearly holds word-for-word: Ok, I’ve updated JC Paret’s chart on the USD here. Early in the month, we bounced off that 38% level of 94.80ish and rallied over the 50% line. I thought we’d be off to the races, but we traded back down immediately to 96.54. My best guess is that we’ll dilly dally around this level before rates go up and we take off from here. Next stop: 98.20, with an eye on the all-important psychological level of 100. USG Bonds In no man’s land right now, but I expect us to head down from here still to 132. Investment Grade Bonds Though we had a rally in investment-grade bonds, I expect this to be short-lived. I’m looking at the 120 level from here. High Yield Bonds We bounced off the 82 level this month. But after zooming out, I think we’ll head down to 77.50. Junk is at significant risk of rising rates and the equities markets getting hit. Recommended Link [This “Metaverse Mistake” Could Cost You A Fortune]( [Click here for more...]( Wired Magazine says it’s “arguably as big a shift as the telephone or the internet.” Which is why the biggest companies in the world are jumping in with both feet. Facebook. Apple. Microsoft. But I’m afraid most folks are making one simple mistake. And if you’re not careful, it could stop you from profiting off the biggest opportunity in the last generation. [To learn how to sidestep this critical error (and what to do instead)...]( [Click Here Now]( Real Estate It looked for a second like real estate was about to fall out of bed. But then it recovered right back into no man’s land. I don’t have anything else to add. Base Metals: Copper Just a whole bunch of nothing going on here. Precious Metals: Gold Getting there, but we really need another $150 rally to get genuinely excited about gold. Still, it’s better than a poke in the eye. Precious Metals: Silver Same story for silver, but if we get above $28.50, that’s a super positive sign. (Or negative, depending on what drives us there!) Cryptos: Bitcoin That big yellow upstick is actually today’s. And that’s positive, as February was another tough month for the mother of all cryptocurrencies. Seeing how the SWIFT takedown of the Russian banks goes, it can be a banner month for all things crypto. Cryptos: Ether I thought we were heading down to $1,800, and we still could be, but the chart may just turn around. I’m still a HODLer on Ether. Trad Asset Class Summary After finishing down 5.86% in January, the SPX fell another 3.80% in February. This is now two months in a row where stocks and commodities have moved in opposite directions. From this, we can glean a trend reversal may be coming. Commodities rallied again, but only about half as much as they did in January. The USD was slightly up against its most significant trading partners, while bond prices fell slightly. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship. With inflation rising and the market expecting a rate hike, this is normal behavior. Though how much the Fed hikes now, thanks to the invasion of Ukraine, is another matter entirely. Crypto Class Summary Last month I wrote, “We may be seeing a bottom, but I think we’ve got more to go on the downside.” I won’t say the bottom is in yet, but the descent has been steadied for now. Monero, the most secretive of the big coins, was up on the month. Wrap Up Thanks again for reading. It’s always a pleasure to see you here. The Ukraine invasion and subsequent central bank and government actions will weigh heavily on the markets in the months to come. But let’s see if Jay Powell keeps to his old ways… All the best, Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening [Whitelist Us]( | [Archive]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Unsubscribe]( Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Rude Awakening, feel free to [unsubscribe](. 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