In Clown World, everythingâs backward. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was weighing on the stock, bond, and crypto markets. Were you forwarded this email? [Sign-up to Rude Awakening here.]( [Unsubscribe]( [The Rude Awakening] If there’s anything you’ve missed as part of your membership to Rude Awakening, make sure you check out our website where you can find archives, updates, and everything else that's included in your subscription. You can access it by [clicking here now](. Sell the Rumor, Buy the Fact - The Russian invasion of Ukraine was weighing on the stock, bond, and crypto markets.
- As it happened, though, all those markets were up yesterday.
- Iâve got an unpopular opinion about this. Recommended Link [Blood-curdling SCREEEAAAAAMMMMM!!!!]( [Click here for more...]( Your future just ended. And whether you realize it yet or not⦠Everything you have from the money in the bank, to the stocks sitting in your 401k⦠Are all being given to you on loan. Because if the [information this former advisor to the CIA and Pentagon]( just revealed live on camera is correct. These markets have already crashed, and itâs only a matter of weeks (maybe even days) before everyone catches on. The markets just let out a blood-curdling SCREEEAAAAMMMMM⦠And you donât have long to act. All of your wealth could be in danger... [Click Here To See Why]( Sean Ring Editor, Rude Awakening Happy Friday! Weâre here - barely - after a tumultuous week in Europe. And Asia may be next, although Iâm not sure the Chinese will gamble on America being busy in Ukraine. The Taiwan Semiconductor Company is just too important to American tech companies for the US Navy not to do something. However, one thing I shouldâve seen coming was the markets making a decent recovery once the Russian invasion actually happened. Usually, itâs âbuy the rumor, sell the fact.â But investors were positioned short prior to the invasion. So this time, they need to buy (back) the fact. We saw this with the Trump election in 2016. Mark Cuban infamously called a market crash on a Trump Victory. You remember what happened next, donât you? Oh, happy days of mean tweets, cheap gas, and 4% GDP growth. Jesus wept. Now heâs probably just shaking his head. As Pooty-Poot runs amok in Ukraine, the current occupant of the Oval Office is still wondering why it doesnât have any corners. Quick Market Snapshot Yesterday, though volatile as all hell, didnât end on a down note. In the charts above, weâve got the SPX (top left), Nasdaq (top right), and Bitcoin (lower right) all up on the day. (Thatâs the final black bar.) In the lower left, youâve got the US Treasury 10-year yield going slightly down. Ok, so there was a little bond buying yesterday for safety. Fair enough. Am I still concerned the stock market can sell off heavily from here? Yes. In fact, I think weâre in for a rough ride in the second quarter (April to June, inclusive) this year. Nevertheless, the markets didnât crash yesterday. I think thatâs because a lot of short positions were bought back to take profits. With all that said, I expect a recovery in the third quarter. And hereâs where Iâll get unpopular. Europe Simply Canât Afford This (Energy) War Hereâs a chart of the made-up currency known as the Euro (versus the USD): My son Micah tells me this chart is going from the upper left to the lower right. And that means the trend is down. With a weakening (and some would say, fake) currency, energy is getting way too expensive for the Europeans. Combine that with Germany freezing - yes, the German government used that word - the NordStream 2 pipeline and mothballing its nuclear reactors, and the picture only gets darker⦠and colder. I bet youâre no longer wondering why [Germany only sent some helmets to the Ukrainian Army]( Recommended Link [Crazy âBack Doorâ Way Into Alt Coins]( [Click here for more...]( Itâs no secret that people that are getting in on âalt coinsâ (any coin other than Bitcoin) have had the chance to make a fortune in the last yearâ¦. Virtually hundreds of these tiny cryptocurrencies have shot up 1,000âs of percent.. You donât need to risk any money at all to get into some of these. You see, our resident crypto expert James Altucher has found a weird [âback doorâ]( way into these types oftiny coins. One that requires NO monetary investment on your end..(just a few minutes of your time) I know that sounds crazy, but itâs 100% true.. Donât believe me? Just [click this link]( and James will explain everything in less than 2 minutes. Remember: [This could be your one shot to get in on some of the fastest moving cryptos of 2022 completely free.]( [Click Here To Learn More]( Clown World Missile Crisis Letâs face it: if the US didnât want to put missiles on Ukrainian soil, this whole thing never wouldâve happened. Itâs the reverse of the Cuban Missile Crisis, really, and what we need is a nimble, face-saving solution, like in the old days. Just as JFK pulled his missiles out of Turkey (albeit very quietly) in return for Russia pulling its missiles out of Mojitoland, diplomatic dexterity is required. And the situation is urgent, as the last time I checked, Cuba doesnât have a heating problem. Thankfully, weâve got some time, as summers are hot in Europe. So hereâs what I think will happen. Lots of huffing and puffing UEFA - the European soccer governing body - has just pulled the Champions League Final (the Super Bowl of European soccer - out of St. Petersburg. There are already calls for the Russian Grand Prix to be canceled. Drunk European sports fans - the majority of its registered voters - think this matters and will be satisfied âsomething is being done.â No Army, No Foul The US will not put troops in Ukraine, as that will thoroughly upset those Europeans who want a demonstration of âsoft power.â And itâs not like any European country has a functioning army. So the bloodshed will be kept to a minimum, provided Russia doesnât occupy Ukraine. If Russia does, all bets are off. The Ukrainians will defend their country with everything theyâve got. Russia Pulls Out With a Job Well Done; Europe Forgives, US Forgets If Russia can do the one thing the US canât seem to do - get a win and get out - they will have secured their weak, southern underbelly⦠and probably will still keep the gas flowing. A little bit. See, theyâve got to make sure Europe hurts. âSure, Europe, you can build alternative sources, but weâve got your cheap energy right here.â Thatâll be the message. Europe will take the bait. Theyâve simply got no other choice. And itâs not like they want to fight Putin anyway. If the US werenât pulling Europeâs strings, Europe and Russia probably wouldâve cut a viable, long-term deal about buffer zones and security guarantees ages ago. But the US canât have that while itâs clinging to the outdated Wolfowitz Doctrine. Oh, and those sanctions⦠donât work. With Russia de-dollarizing and stymying sanctions everywhere they go, Russia doesnât even care about sanctions anymore. There are plenty of buyers for their [energy]( and [wheat](. And did you notice [Germany negged the US request to exclude Russia from the SWIFT payments system]( Thatâs the USD payments system. The EU wouldnât be able to pay Russia for its energy, and Russia couldnât pay Europe for any of its imports. A ban on Russia using SWIFT could also accelerate the use of Chinaâs rival CIPS system. And it would deal yet another blow to the US dollarâs status as the global reserve currency, which would accelerate the move to cryptocurrencies. Wrap Up Here are some of the Interwebâs best concerning the situation: On a more serious note, Iâll leave you with some important words from University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer, who in 2014, authored an article â âWhy the Ukraine Crisis Is the Westâs Fault.â My colleague Brian Maher, who writes the Daily Reckoning, yesterday quoted this piece from Mearsheimerâs article: The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russiaâs orbit and integrate it into the West⦠Elites in the United States and Europe have been blindsided by events only because they subscribe to a flawed view of international politics. They tend to believe that the logic of realism holds little relevance in the 21st century and that Europe can be kept whole and free on the basis of such liberal principles as the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy. But this grand scheme went awry in Ukraine. The crisis there shows that realpolitik remains relevant â and states that ignore it do so at their own peril. U.S. and European leaders blundered in attempting to turn Ukraine into a Western stronghold on Russiaâs border. Now that the consequences have been laid bare, it would be an even greater mistake to continue this misbegotten policy⦠Putinâs pushback should have come as no surprise. After all, the West had been moving into Russiaâs backyard and threatening its core strategic interests, a point Putin made emphatically and repeatedly⦠Imagine the outrage in Washington if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico in it. Logic aside, Russian leaders have told their Western counterparts on many occasions that they consider NATO expansion into⦠Ukraine unacceptable, along with any effort to turn [it] against Russia⦠In essence, the two sides have been operating with different playbooks: Putin and his compatriots have been thinking and acting according to realist dictates, whereas their Western counterparts have been adhering to liberal ideas about international politics⦠The United States and its European allies now face a choice on Ukraine. They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process â a scenario in which everyone would come out a loser. Or they can switch gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations with Moscow. With that approach, all sides would win. Though the world got a bit more serious today, have a wonderful weekend! All the best, Sean Ring
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