“Sold Out” with Jim Rickards

From the Paradigm Shift Summit… [Altucher Confidential] October 17, 2022 [WEBSITE]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( The destruction of the dollar will not come from Russia, China, or Saudi Arabia. We will do it to ourselves. [Hero_Image] “Sold Out” with Jim Rickards By Chris Campbell Urgent Note From James – Response Requested By Midnight Tuesday [Click here for more...]( Hey, it’s James. [I just made a massive change to my Altucher’s Investment Network newsletter.]( This is one of the biggest changes to a newsletter in the history of our business… As far as I know, nothing like it has ever been done before. What’s going on? In short, I’m adding 3 brand-new benefits to this all-new “Pro level” of Altucher’s Investment Network. And as one of my readers, I’d hate to see you left behind. That’s why – for a very limited time, until the timer below hits 0 – [you’ll be able to upgrade your current subscription to this new “Pro level” by clicking here.]( [Click here for more...]( [Seriously. Just click here now to see how to claim your upgrade.]( [Chris Campbell] CHRIS CAMPBELL This time last year, you couldn’t escape the dire news… “Supply Chain is Breaking Down!” our newsfeeds screamed. And they were right. The supply chains were crumbling. So purchasing managers did the rational thing: they doubled, sometimes tripled, their orders. The logic was that if they get half of what they want, that’ll be about what they need. When the supply chain problems eased up, however, the orders actually arrived. Companies got two or three times what they wanted… but it was also at a time when demand was falling right off a cliff. A new problem emerged, which few expected. Except for Jim Rickards. Presenting… Jim Rickards Jim probably needs no introduction. Here’s the short-list just in case… Jim’s a lawyer, economist, investment banker, speaker, and bestselling author. He regularly advises top brass government officials and institutions around the world (CIA, DOD, and many more). And his latest book, Sold Out, will be released late-November. (It’s all about how the supply chains are broken… and what to expect in a sinking global economy.) “I think this is the second-largest live audience I’ve ever spoken to,” Rickards said as he began his speech. The second largest, he said, “was an evangelical church in Costa Mesa, California that was predicting the end of the world. I don’t know why they invited me… they seemed to think I was in sync with their perspective.” Draw your own conclusions as to why that is, but the point is… A.] Jim’s probably not bringing good news. B.] The crowd at our Paradigm Shift Summit in Vegas was pretty impressive. The US Economy Official estimates from the Atlanta Fed gives Q3 GDP a relatively strong 2.9%. This sounds pretty good, right? Especially given the average GDP growth of the past decade. But consider there are four main ways that GDP is calculated: 1.] Consumption 2.] Investment 3.] Government spending 4.] Exports In the investment category, is something called “inventories.” Much of the strength we saw in the third quarter, says Rickards, is inventory building. “Not all of it,” he said, “but probably half of what’s there is a piling up of inventories.” This is only a good thing if it’s matched by retail sales. “But that’s not happening,” says Jim. “What’s happening is the inventory is piling up and demand is being crushed by a number of things; including the Federal Reserve, higher interest rates, monetary tightening, etc.” The first problem here is that inventories are expensive to hold onto. Goods get stale. They can go out of season and out of fashion. People don’t want them around. So what do you do? You slash prices. Dump it on the market. This destroys margins, profits, and stock prices. What’s the takeaway here? “The fourth quarter could look dismal for two reasons,” said Jim. “One, the inventories are being dumped at discount prices. Two, it hurts stock prices. And the reason behind all of this is the demand destruction caused by the Fed.” Tightening Into Weakness? Why is the Fed tightening into weakness? “The simple answer is that the Fed always gets it wrong.” Without getting too deep into the weeds, the “Fed’s models are badly flawed. Their data does not represent the real economy.” For example, they use something called the Phillips Curve, which says there’s a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. (If unemployment is low, inflation’s going to be high and vice versa.) It’s bunk, says Jim. “There’s so much slack in the labor force that the idea that the labor force could be a source of inflation is just not true… but the Fed thinks it is.” The Fed is tightening into weakness because they don’t see the weakness, says Jim: “But it’s there.” Crypto Legend Reveals: “The Next Bitcoin” He called Bitcoin at $61. Now he says this next crypto will be even bigger. In fact, he’s targeting 25X gains over the next year alone. [>>Click here now for the details.]( It’s the Supply Side, Dummy “There are two types of inflation,” Jim says. “The first is cost-push, which comes from the supply side. The other is demand-pull, which comes from workers.” In the 1970s, we had demand-pull. Today, we have cost-push. “The Fed can’t do anything about cost-push. The Fed doesn’t drill for oil. It doesn’t drive trucks or harvest crops.” If you had demand-pull inflation, they could raise rates to squash demand. “How do you defeat cost-push inflation when your only tool is on the demand side?” Jim asks. “You have to destroy demand. You have to throw the economy into a very severe recession.” When looking at Eurodollar futures… Big money expects interest rates to go down in 2023. They expect a Fed pivot. Or, in Jim’s words, a “financial heart attack.” Supply Chain Has Broken “The supply chain has broken,” says Jim. “I talked to the single individual responsible for building the modern supply chain from 1989 to 2019. It was a thirty-year project. He said, ‘It took thirty years to build and we blew it up in about three. It’s going to take at least ten years to rebuild.’” The old supply chain is gone, says Jim. Supply chain 2.0 is coming. “Right now, we're just muddling through. There’s a lot of uncertainty. Decoupling. China and the U.S. getting a nasty divorce economically speaking… and a lot of new supply chain formats emerging, we’re just not there yet.” Is COVID to blame? Rickards says the pandemic certainly played a role. But, here’s the thing… “I was able to find some very good evidence that the supply chain breakdown started before COVID. So COVID made it worse. And the war in Ukraine made it worse. But it actually started before that.” Of course, supply chains have been around for 5,000 years. There’s nothing new about supply chains. What’s new is the science of supply chain management. And the new science of supply chains -- which is currently being formed -- will be different than it was the past 30 years. We’re the in-betweeners. Stuck in the middle between the two. And we’ll suffer from shortages and dislocations as a result. Russia-Ukraine “Russia’s still making about $21 billion per month in oil and natural gas sales. Didn’t we cut Russia out? Yes. We kicked them out of SWIFT, and by the way they’re building a new payment channel. Meanwhile, the US, EU, and Japan are all at or near recession… The Ruble is now significantly stronger than it was before the war started.” Contrary to popular thought, the attack on the Russian oligarchs, says Jim, helped Putin. “This just goes to show how politicians don’t understand Russia. The oligarchs have always been a rival power center. Putin never felt he could wipe them out. He said, ‘You can keep your money, but keep it out of politics.’ His main support is the military, the Orthodox church, Russian intelligence, and everyday Russians. He hates the oligarchs.” This war is far from over. Russia is winning. Our sanctions have made this worse. And it has far-reaching consequences… Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Kenya, and more are incredibly dependent on grain from Russia and Ukraine. That’s about 10% of the population. Germany is an export powerhouse that’s facing a full-on shutdown. They see what’s coming. They’re chopping down trees to make sure they have wood. “Germany is going to freeze in the dark this winter,” says Jim. “And this is not hyperbolic.” GOLD/CBDCs/Bitcoin The destruction of the dollar will not come from Russia, China, or Saudi Arabia. We will do it ourselves. We’ll do it through bad monetary policy, sanctions, CBDCs, or something else. And people will seek alternatives. Rickards, as you know, is a goldbug. And not for no reason… Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Philippines, Mexico, and more… They’re all buying gold hand-over-fist. And what about CBDCs? “They’re not new currencies. The difference is how you pay for things. In most transactions, you have five intermediaries. You got about 3% of fees. Under CBDCs, we can all have an account at the Fed and it goes through them. That’s the good news. Faster, cheaper. The downside? This is the perfect realization of the totalitarian surveillance state. You’re under constant surveillance. Under CBCDs, they’ll know everything.” Worse, the government will be able to tax your bank account however much and whenever they want. Bitcoin and cryptos? Rickards isn’t a fan. (But you probably already knew that.) “I know people who made $20 million in Bitcoin. The stories are true. But it’s really not different than being in a casino. Bitcoin’s really a hallucinogen. Everyone sees what they want to see.” His take? All roads lead back to gold. [Ed. note: Stay tuned for more specific opportunities from Rickards on how to survive and thrive in the years ahead.] Until tomorrow, [Chris Campbell] Chris Campbell For Altucher Confidential New LIVE Demo Video STUNS Crypto Investors In [this short 3:28 video…]( Crypto genius James Altucher reveals his most shocking crypto secret yet… A little-known secret that’s delivered over $1,170 in FREE crypto income per month. If you AREN’T using this affordable little device… You’re missing one of the best, easiest ways to earn real cash with cryptos. [Click here to watch this short 3:28 video NOW.]( [Paradigm]( ☰ ⊗ [ARCHIVE]( [ABOUT]( [Contact Us]( Altucher Confidential is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Paradigm Press, LLC. delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Altucher Confidential e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Altucher Confidential, feel free to [click here.]( Please read our [Privacy Statement](. For any further comments or concerns please [contact us.]( If you are having trouble receiving your Altucher Confidential subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox [by whitelisting Altucher Confidential.]( © 2022 Paradigm Press, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. 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