Can an apartheid ally win in Angola?

www.ozy.com [OZY]() Your World. Bold & Bright [Daily Dose]( Sponsored by [Cariuma]( The newsletter to fuel — and thrill — your mind. Read for deep dives into the unmissable ideas and topics shaping our world. Aug 08, 2022 Today Democracy is messy … so messy that sometimes it can present the oddest of choices. On Aug. 24, Angola — once among the [bloodiest theaters of the Cold War]( — will vote in national elections. The two main options on the ballot: 1. A ruling party that led its struggle for independence from Portugal but has since turned authoritarian 2. An opposition force that was a friend of the apartheid regime in South Africa. This election is shaping up to be closer than any Angola has seen since its 1975 independence — thanks in part to a new opposition leader who is attracting Angola’s youth. The decisions that[Africa’s current biggest oil producer]( makes will echo well beyond its borders, and perhaps even beyond the continent. —  with reporting by Matthew Blackman in Cape Town, South Africa [Get the Timeless Look with Cariuma]( [Cariuma]( Calling all style lovers! Searching for a classic and timeless piece to add to your wardrobe? Looking for a staple sneaker? Then look no further. [Cariuma’s]( all-season low tops are favorites not only for OZY but for celebrities too. With features in Forbes, Vogue, and Rolling Stone this sneak is on everyone’s watch list. Grab them before they go out of stock with our exclusive code, OZY20, which scores you [20% off](on any sneaker of your choice!. This special offer is just for OZY readers. [Add to bag]( Winds of change Former apartheid ally Since 1975, the once-Marxist People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) has ruled Angola, presiding over an[increasingly corrupt]( and[intolerant]( administration. Meanwhile, the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) has carried uncomfortable baggage: It was supported by South Africa’s apartheid government and the CIA during the country’s 27-year civil war. But as Justin Pearce, a professor and Angola specialist at Stellenbosch University in South Africa told OZY, the country appears poised for a possible change. Since 2019, UNITA has been led by Adalberto Costa Júnior, a leader who “is for many the right candidate for the times,” according to Pearce. A[poll in July]( by the Mudei Civic Movement, a citizen-based election monitoring group, found that UNITA and its United Patriotic Alliance had 50.2% support across the country, and the MPLA trailed with only 27.9%. Simply no debate Costa Júnior, 60, is changing the political narrative in Angola and has become known for his astute[interventions in parliament](. Claudio Silva, a political commentator from the Angolan capital of Luanda, told OZY that Costa Júnior’s strong communication skills stand out in “stark contrast to the president,” João Lourenço, who has in recent months[struggled to get his message across](. Costa Júnior recently called on Lourenço to have an electoral[debate in public]( — something never done before in Angola. “What are you afraid of, Mr. President?” he asked. Lourenço hasn’t responded yet. “It is like it is beneath members of the MPLA to debate, because they are used to being supreme leaders,” said Silva. “Angola is a democratic state in name only.” Júnior’s young following But there now seems to be a mood for change. Despite leading what has traditionally been thought of as the largely rural-based UNITA party, Costa Júnior has developed a large popular following among the urban youth. Young people in Luanda[have repeatedly]( taken to the streets in frustration with the MPLA, only to be violently attacked by security forces. Elson, a young student from Luanda, messaged OZY to say, “Costa Júnior is my man.” Elson admitted, however, that his parents are supporters of Lourenço’s MPLA. But Silva insisted that even the older generations in the MPLA’s stronghold of Luanda are turning to UNITA “because the situation has become untenable.” [Walking On Sunshine]( [Cariuma]( Inspired by sunny, summer days, and lounging by the beach with a drink in hand, the [OCA Low Yellow]( is the perfect summertime sneaker. Crafted with robust canvas, this fashion-forward sneaker meets functionality, style, comfort, and fit. And with a fully-stitched lightweight outsole, it’s going to last you longer than summer (hello, quality over quantity)! OZY Exclusive: Get 20% OFF with code [OZY20]( at checkout. This special offer is just for OZY readers. [SHOP NOW]( Angola past and present Oil curse For all of its oil riches, Angola remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. Over half of its population lives in[extreme poverty](. Under the authoritarian rule of the recently deceased José Eduardo Dos Santos, the country became synonymous with dizzying corruption. The ruling party’s elites and their patronage networks have siphoned off billions of dollars into[tax havens]( around the world. In 2020, the[Luanda Leaks]( investigation proved that one of the main beneficiaries of this corruption was Isabel Dos Santos, José Eduardo’s daughter. The leaks also raised questions about how some of the world’s biggest accounting firms[enabled Isabel]( to obtain her fortune and move it off shore. Early hopes In 2017, after Dos Santos stepped down as president, Lourenço was welcomed into power by millions of Angolans with the promise that he would clean out corruption. “Lourenço was incredibly popular when he came into power,” Silva said. The initial signs were good: Several politicians and members of the military were charged with corruption; Dos Santos’ son [José Filomeno]( was sent to jail; and Lourenço also removed Isabel as head of the state-owned Sonangol oil company. As president, Lourenço[met some of the MPLA’s toughest critics](, and agreed to a long-held demand to hand over the[body of the late UNITA leader](, Jonas Savimbi. Failed promises But Lourenço — who took over amid a national economic crisis — was doomed from the start, according to Pearce. He added that Lourenço’s attempts to crack down on the Dos Santos faction in the MPLA were a way of consolidating his own power. Whatever his reasons, Lourenço’s efforts to stem corruption are now widely seen as both too selective — only pursuing those close to Dos Santos — and[largely a failure](. Weakened apartheid connection Silva pointed out that Angola’s growing momentum for change is powered by a massive demographic shift: Two-thirds of the population is[under the age of 24](. This means that “the vast majority of these people were born after the civil war and have spent their whole lives under MPLA rule, which has been catastrophic,” said Silva. While the MPLA continues to emphasize the former links between the apartheid government in South Africa and UNITA, “most of the population wasn’t alive when[South Africa invaded Angola](,” he said. WATCH TERRY CREWS on [The Carlos Watson Show](! Frigging rigging Fixed match? Reports are growing about MPLA attempts to rig the election and keep Costa Júnior from winning. Costa Júnior’s public meetings receive little coverage in the national media — which critics say is [mostly controlled by the government]( — while Lourenço’s are widely covered. Pearce is deeply skeptical about the election itself. “In a free and fair election, Júnior could win, but it was very clear from the 2017 election there was no transparency around the gathering and tallying of votes,” he said. ‘Absolute Control’ Albano Troco, an Angolan scholar at Wits University in Johannesburg, agreed with Pearce. The MPLA, he said to OZY, “has almost absolute control over the Angolan state.” The government showed this in November 2021 when it pushed through a new law that[centralizes vote counting](. Many, including opposition parties, believe that this law has been put in place to ensure an MPLA victory. Another Angolan analyst, Paula Roque, views the [“electoral machinery” as biased]( and the National Electoral Commission, which will oversee the election, as unable to act impartially. After the fact? But while Silva agreed that “a party like the MPLA does not allow itself to lose power at the ballot box,” he warned that this time, it might not be as simple for the ruling party to forcibly hold on to office. “I will also say that I have absolutely no idea what will happen if the MPLA declare themselves winners,” he said. “I think and I feel there is a lot of pent-up anger in society. You see this with the random displays of violence that have happened. There are a lot of unemployed and disaffected youth that are definitely not voting for the MPLA.” If the MPLA declares victory, Silva worries that “there is a chance of civil unrest” — two decades after the end of Angola’s brutal civil war. Community Corner Which other countries that are traditionally underreported in the mainstream media would you like OZY to cover more? Share your thoughts with us at OzyCommunity@Ozy.com. 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