What Comes Next for Ukraine?

www.ozy.com [OZY]() Your World. Bold & Bright The newsletter to fuel — and thrill — your mind. Read for deep dives into the unmissable ideas and topics shaping our world. Feb 25, 2022 Today Vladimir Putin has been a dominant figure in international relations since coming to power in 1999, garnering almost continuous global attention in the time since. And following Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea, until then the largest land grab in Europe since [World War II](, conditions have remained generally frozen. One of the things that made Ukraine particularly vulnerable to Russian pressure is three decades of neglected reform since the country’s independence in 1991. But what will the next year hold for Ukraine? What are the implications for its neighbors and the broader expanse of the world? Today’s Daily Dose offers an overview of the risks and conditions that may affect us all in the year to come. Putin Vs. The World Putin’s Iron Fist Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea brought him [record popularity]( — around 85 percent of his citizens felt favorably about him. So he has little political incentive to change course. Moreover, he continued to [tighten control of the media](, even replacing the state news agency with a Kremlin mouthpiece. Even if people wished otherwise, the Russian public can hear only his message. Sanctions What about sanctions? The United States, the European Union and several others already [had them]( in place, but the [latest wave]( implemented this week targets the banking, technology and aerospace sectors in both Russia and [Belarus](, for their support and facilitation of the attack on Ukraine. “These sanctions are completely unprecedented in their strength,” said Julia Friedlander, a former Treasury Department and National Security Council official. On face, conditions could look ripe for the public to turn against its leader. But the Russian public is famously stoic in the face of hardship and traditionally responds well to a strong leader and nationalistic appeals. And it’s unclear any of those conditions will push Putin off course. With the media in his pocket, he can blame everything on the U.S. and Europe. The Parallel Belarus The imposition of sanctions on Belarus in addition to Russia may paint a picture of what Russia expects of Ukraine. Belarus, unlike most in the region, is so culturally, linguistically and socially similar to Russia — essentially a mirror of Putin’s own country — that any progress toward a more open, less authoritarian society there could make Russians hungrier for the same. Their own sovereignty is often questioned on the global stage. This was also a factor in Putin’s effort to destabilize and sow division in Ukraine, the region’s largest non-Russian Slavic country, which most Russians view as seamlessly connected to them. Political Risk A key motivation in Ukraine is a Russian concern about them [drifting westward politically](. While this has also been a concern with Belarus in the past, it was a more acute and immediate problem in Ukraine, which at the time of Putin’s invasion was talking to the European Union about a possible association agreement. Belarus is nowhere near that, but if President Lukashenko was overthrown, new elections held and a new democratic constitution written — and if this endured for very long — the likelihood of an approach to the European Union would grow. At that point, a desire for NATO membership could even be conceivable, and this would probably be endorsed by Belarus’ contiguous NATO members: Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. If this eventually came about, it would add a sixth NATO country to the five already bordering Russia (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Norway and Poland). But so far, Putin has not intruded into a NATO country with Ukraine-like tactics. One imagines the Baltic member states — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia — tempt him. In Estonia, for example, the economically depressed city of Narva on the Russian border is [80 percent ethnic Russian](, and 36 percent already hold Russian passports. It would not be hard for Putin to add fuel to already resentful citizens’ grievances there — they have to learn Estonian to qualify for citizenship or state jobs — and claim a need to “help” them on humanitarian grounds. Watch Sean Penn [on How He Hears the World]( NATO’s Take Self-Harm Which takes us to NATO policy, the third major factor that will determine the next year’s course. NATO would face a crisis if, say, even one Russian soldier (the “little green men,” as the Ukrainians called the Crimean invaders) crossed the Estonian border. Estonia would surely invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which calls for all members to come to the defense of any member attacked. And that would be a difficult decision for the 28-member alliance, some of whom have deep economic ties to Russia. Member Pressure NATO is already turning up the heat in Eastern Europe, according to Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who [said]( yesterday that the Alliance will be deploying over 100 warplanes to the region on high alert. [Additional troops and aircraft]( have been positioned to join prepositioned armaments in the east over the past several days. Thinking Outside the Box But tragically, these moves may be too conventional to thwart Putin’s “hybrid warfare” strategy, which subtly combines special forces, cyber tactics, propaganda, media control, mainline troops and manipulative public statements. So even if we see a quieter Putin in the coming weeks and months, we’ll do well to remember the size of his arsenal and the scope of his ambitions. As has been the case in the past, the expansion of Russia’s “sphere of influence” seems to have only just begun. COMMUNITY CORNER How do you feel about the global political climate? Share your thoughts with us at OzyCommunity@Ozy.com. ABOUT OZY OZY is a diverse, global and forward-looking media and entertainment company focused on “the New and the Next.” OZY creates space for fresh perspectives, and offers new takes on everything from news and culture to technology, business, learning and entertainment. [www.ozy.com]( / #CarlosWatson / #OZY Curiosity. Enthusiasm. Action. That’s OZY! 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