The Sinking Elephant in the Room

www.ozy.com Sponsored by Thursday, July 23, 2020 Like Donald Trump, we know how to spot an elephant [when we see one](. But rather than cognitive tests, let’s talk about the now-infamous interview in which Fox News host Chris Wallace pointed to all the signs that Trump is trailing Joe Biden. “First of all, I’m not losing, because those are fake polls,” Trump fired back. “They were fake in 2016 and now they’re even more fake.” So what’s the true state of the race, and what can we learn from the misdirections of 2016 to prepare for November? That’s what you hire us for. Read on for the state of the race, hidden players to watch and what else is around the corner. Nick Fouriezos, Senior Reporter the fundamentals 1. Rebuilding the Blue Wall Trump is pacing far worse nationally than he did against Hillary Clinton four years ago, and he’s redrawing the electoral map — but not in his favor. He’s down 6 percentage points on average in classic swing states Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, and creating new swing states out of Arizona (down nearly 3), Texas (virtually tied) and Iowa (up by 1.5). As USA Today [reports](, the newly competitive states create questions for whether Biden should go on the offensive to expand his chances at a landslide victory … or play it safe. [2. Against the Grain]( One bright spot for Trump amid an avalanche of bad polling: Biden is winning only about 59 percent of Latinos in recent polls; exit polls gave Clinton 66 percent of Latinos in 2016, and Barack Obama took 71 percent in 2012. One ex-Biden strategist says he’ll likely need about 65 percent of the Latino vote to win the presidency. Possible reasons for the slide include Trump’s persistent efforts to court Latinos — while Biden has only recently geared up outreach — and Latinos’ support for Bernie Sanders during the primary. [Read more on OZY]( 3. Diversity of Votes If the Latino trend holds and [Trump’s efforts with African Americans]( bear even incremental fruit, it represents a potentially striking shift in our politics. As Democratic data scientist David Shor recently [opined]( in New York Magazine, America may be gradually moving toward a more European voting dynamic, “where nonwhite voters are more left wing than white voters, but where they vote for the left by like 65 to 35 percent, rather than the 90-10 split you see with African Americans.” [Get On the Right Sound Wave]( Lovers of podcasts, music and all things audio, here is a [gift guide for you](. Whether it is waterproof Bluetooth speakers for some music at the beach or a statement-making OZY Flashback mug, this audio gift guide is sure to amp up how you listen. Get your must-have audio essentials from [the OZY Store]( today! [Shop Now]( the end game Trump has said he believes mail-in ballots will “rig” the election, and he’s refused to say he would accept the results if he loses. Here’s what could happen in a truly contested election. 1. Police at the Polls With Trump lagging, Republicans could pull out all the stops of voter suppression — including stationing off-duty or retired police at the polls to ensure “election security,” which would have the handy effect of intimidating minority voters. Trump has already deployed federal officers to quash dissent in Portland (with plans for more in Chicago and elsewhere). The New York Times [reported]( that the GOP is drafting 50,000 volunteers to monitor polls and challenge ballots they deem “suspicious.” For decades, courts barred the Republican Party from such acts due to documented illegal bullying of minorities, but a 2018 court reversal left the party in the clear. [2. SCOTUS Showdown]( Think of it as Bush v. Gore, the rematch. Both the Trump and Biden teams [have legions of lawyers ready]( if this is close, with the pandemic frenzy over mail-in ballots expected to create incredible voting headaches. Conservatives would seem to have the advantage, given the court’s 5-4 rightward lean, but Chief Justice John Roberts has been unpredictable, to put it mildly, in his new role as swing justice. Another presidential election decision that looks partisan would unleash a new torrent of talk about expanding the number of justices on the court. [Read more about court-packing on OZY]( 3. Putin Power Play So far, Vladimir Putin has played coy when asked about Russian interference in U.S. elections — despite [evidence implicating his minions]( in inflaming American tensions and pumping up Trump (though endless investigations could not find a conspiracy between them). Now, if Putin really wanted to embarrass America, he could go on worldwide television a week after the election … and declare that Russia had hacked its way into American brains once again to pick the winner. Cue bedlam. What’s your biggest fear about the election aftermath? [Tweet us your thoughts](. [fashion? comfort? why not both?]( This summer, you don’t have to choose between looking good and feeling good — just [buy a pair of CARIUMAs.](These ethically made sneakers are our favorites because they don’t just [look amazing](but also feel amazing. Better yet, OZY readers get [$15 off when you buy now,]( using code OZY-15! [Buy Now]( races to watch 1. Sheriff Joe Is Back The notorious Joe Arpaio — who once built an outdoor jail, calling it a concentration camp, and who was convicted of racially profiling Latinos before a Trump pardon freed him — [is running for the Arizona post]( he held for 24 years before losing it in 2016. If Arpaio, 88, returns to the Maricopa County Sheriff’s job, it would be a victory for “tough-on-crime” voters, but his public presence could backfire if it helps Democrats turn the state blue by painting Republicans as extremists. 2. Texas Bellwether Chip Roy is a former Ted Cruz chief of staff turned freshman congressman, while his challenger, Democrat Wendy Davis, made national waves for filibustering restrictive abortion regulations in Texas before making an unsuccessful run for governor in 2014. If Texas turns blue, it may become obvious in the 21st Congressional District, which sits north of San Antonio with a slice of Austin, where Davis [is closing in]( on the incumbent’s lead. 3. Show-Me Showdown An under-the-radar battle is brewing in Missouri, one of just 11 states holding governor's contests in 2020 (most are contested during midterm years). Republican Gov. Mike Parson, 64, who fell into the seat by way of the 2018 resignation of [scandal-scarred Gov. Eric Greitens](, faces State Auditor Nicole Galloway, 38, a [mild-mannered accountant]( who’s the only Democratic statewide officeholder. A recent [poll shows them basically tied](, even as Trump holds a solid lead in Missouri, with the public split evenly on Parson’s handling of the pandemic. Emerging Tech Brew At OZY, we know a good newsletter when we see one. To find out what’s brewing in emerging tech, check out Morning Brew’s free newsletter on startups and power players creating the technologies of the future: AI, robotics, mixed reality and more. Over 200,000 subscribers tune in; [join them today](. global guide 1. Hong Kong for Houston? That’s what the influential editor of China’s state-backed Global Times newspaper is suggesting — that Beijing force Washington to cut the size of its Hong Kong consulate in [retaliation for the Trump administration’s demand]( that China shutter its Houston mission. Other tit-for-tats that China is apparently considering include asking the U.S. to close down its consulate in either Chengdu — where America in 2012 [gave a top Chinese police officer shelter]( after he turned against a rising communist party leader — or Wuhan. 2. Israeli Spring? That’s how some protesters are [describing growing street opposition]( to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid concerns over his handling of the coronavirus crisis and his ongoing corruption trial. The protests — the largest Israel has seen in a decade — seek Netanyahu’s resignation at a time when the country’s unstable ruling coalition appears particularly rocky. The Blue and White Party of former army chief Benny Gantz — a part of the ruling coalition — [voted with the opposition]( on Wednesday for a bill banning so-called gay conversion therapy. 3. Water Woes On Tuesday, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that his country had reached an [agreement with Egypt and Sudan]( that could enable a breakthrough in their dispute over a dam on the Nile. Successful negotiations are critical for Abiy, a Nobel Peace Prize winner who faces his toughest political test in elections this year. The EPRDF, a broad coalition of ethnic parties that has ruled Ethiopia since 1995, [broke down in December.]( That means this year’s vote will be the most open democratic election Ethiopians have seen in a generation — and being the incumbent won’t guarantee Abiy victory. 4. Left Behind Things aren’t looking rosy for the parties of former [South American leftist leaders Evo Morales of Bolivia and Rafael Correa]( of Ecuador, pillars of the continent's pink revolutions of the early 21st century. Ecuador's national election commission has barred Correa’s party from the country's 2021 national elections. And Morales’ party — which lost power amid public protests last November — has alleged that election authorities in Bolivia are trying to ban them from presidential elections scheduled for later this year. players to track [1. The American Fringes](20) From QAnon followers running for office to anti-fascists using former skinhead slogans like “All Cops Are Bastards” to rally against police, extremists are taking over the discourse and shaping the America of tomorrow. [read more on ozy]( [2. Amber McReynolds]( The national director of Vote at Home built Denver’s pioneering vote-by-mail system and is now advising secretaries of state across the country on how to prepare for November in what likely will be the most mail-heavy election ever. [Read more on OZY]( 3. The Lincoln Project A group of GOP politicos including George Conway, Rick Wilson and John Weaver has made waves for getting under Trump’s skin with [striking attack ads]( — which they often place on shows Trump is known to watch — and now have basically gone all-in with Democrats. Yet the operatives have a number of skeletons of their own, and their time in the limelight [may begin to burn them](. [4. Chris Kubecka]( A cyberattack expert who once saved Saudi Arabia from one of the largest digital offensives ever, Kubecka is now charged with preparing NATO, the European Union and even American responses to global cyber threats. [Read more on OZY]( who could be in biden’s cabinet? 1. Secretary of State You better believe that Pete Buttigieg, who endorsed Biden almost immediately after dropping out and knows he needs to add foreign relations experience to his résumé, will make the case that his service in Afghanistan would make him a solid pick. But an even better choice might be Sen. [Tammy Duckworth](, the Thai American Army veteran who lost her legs in an explosion in Iraq. That is, if Duckworth doesn’t end up as Biden’s running mate. 2. Education After four years of Betsy DeVos, public school teachers will want a true champion of their cause … and who better than [Lily Eskelsen García](, president of their union, the National Education Association. The affable Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, a former Denver schools superintendent, may be another option. 3. Attorney General Sally Yates, the former Obama deputy attorney general who stood up to Trump and was summarily fired early in his tenure, would be an inspired pick and [one familiar]( to the former vice president. 4. Treasury If the historically moderate Biden wants to signal to progressives that he actually will make good on his more recent liberal turns, there is no better pick than Elizabeth Warren. More traditional picks could include elevating Anne Finucane, vice chairman of Bank of America, or even [Thasunda Brown Duckett]( (pictured), CEO of Chase Consumer Banking, who would be the first woman and the first Black person to hold the office. 5. Bonus Pick: Climate Czar There isn’t a dedicated U.S. Cabinet post dedicated to fighting global warming, even if the EPA comes close, but there should be … and two former presidential candidates, Al Gore (star of An Inconvenient Truth) and John Kerry (who helped strike the Paris climate accord), would both prove experienced, proven leaders for such a task. tricks up trump’s sleeve Trailing in the polls, Trump has to swing big to launch a comeback, and he’s already [dumped his campaign manager](. A few options include… 20 [1. Dump the Veep](20) Nikki Haley is the most discussed choice, but would the 2024 presidential contender even take the job? If not, another option would be New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (pictured), the 36-year-old who had a star turn defending POTUS during impeachment, and whom the campaign trotted out for a speech in Tulsa. If Trump is keen for a shake-up, there would be none bigger than dumping Mike Pence to make a play for suburban women. [Read more about Stefanik on OZY]( 2. A Supreme Step-Down Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is currently going through [treatment for cancer](, but has no intention of retiring as long as she’s breathing. That leaves Trump to sweet-talk either Clarence Thomas (whose wife, Ginni, is a leading Trump ally) or Samuel Alito (who’s [rumored to be sick of Washington]() into a shock summer retirement. A Supreme Court nomination fight would soak up headlines and deflect conversation from Trump’s mismanagement of the COVID-19 crisis and George Floyd protests … while possibly convincing waffling conservatives to stick with him to Make the Courts Right Again. 3. Attorney General Barr, Line One Trump could see what investigations Bill Barr can launch at Biden, his family or even his vice presidential choice. Sure, plenty of people would see right through an administration that got busted trying to gin up a phony scandal on Biden in Ukraine, and they’ll remember how James Comey’s infamous [letter helped shift 2016](. But elections are won on the margins, and why invent new tactics when you can go with the tried and true? 4. Announce a COVID-19 Cure The government is already [throwing billions at buying up vaccines]( not yet proven to work. But if the FDA approves something — or even is close to approving something — you can expect the biggest Rose Garden rollout imaginable from a president desperate to turn the public around on the No. 1 issue. 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