The Good News for Trump

www.ozy.com Sponsored by Tuesday, June 23, 2020 Will today be Racial Justice Tuesday at the ballot box? While President Trump seems to have hit a low point, there are new leaders on the rise. But today's Daily Dose examines how Trump can mount his comeback. Plus, we're previewing an ex-attorney general's humiliation, introducing you to a Trump-curious Democrat and examining the prospects for peace in Libya. Read on. racial justice tuesday? 1. Multicolored Congress The 116th Congress is the [most racially diverse in history](, beginning with 116 people of color in the House and Senate, including 56 Black lawmakers. And those numbers are set to rise even more dramatically this year — with a boost from the Black Lives Matter movement. It starts today with primaries in New York and Kentucky. 2. Black Candidates Matter By now you’ve probably heard of Jamaal Bowman (pictured) — one of [our 86 Angelic Troublemakers]( — a Black middle-school principal who could take out longtime Rep. Eliot Engel in today’s Democratic primary. But you should also keep an eye on Jackie Gordon, running in the Dem primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Peter King in a competitive seat, and Mondaire Jones, running to replace retiring Dem Rep. Nita Lowey in a blue seat. More gains are likely in places like Seattle, where 2 of the top 3 Democratic contenders in the Aug. 4 primary to replace retiring Rep. Denny Heck are Black. 3. Senate Slog The Senate is much whiter than the House, with just 10 people of color, including three Black senators. New Mexico Democrat Ben Ray Lujan is likely to add a new Latino face to the mix this year, and Indian American Republican Manny Sethi has a good chance in Tennessee. The Black candidates are longer shots: Republican John James in Michigan, Democrat Jaime Harrison in South Carolina ([whom we first told you about in 2017]() and Democrat Charles Booker in Kentucky — another of our [Angelic Troublemakers](, who’s on the primary ballot today in a high-profile race. 4. What Would It Mean? Adding more color to Congress on both sides of the aisle would help the cause of police reform and add a perspective that’s sorely needed on everything from the environment to health care. But it also could help advance the cause of issues like reparations. Consider that a House bill to merely study reparations has 127 co-sponsors — and not a single additional member has jumped on the bill since George Floyd’s death. [5. Make A Splash at Your 4th of July BBQ]( Buy your Reset America gear now to get it in time for the Fourth of July and show a new kind of patriotism — one that meets the moment. All profits go to the racial justice organization of your choice, so now you can do good while looking good. Get yours from the OZY store today. [Shop Now]( [The Life Hack to Finding the Wines You’ll Love]( Drinking wine is meant to be a joyous occasion, not a struggle session. But where do you start when you feel clueless about the wine world? That’s what the Bright Cellars quiz is for! Bright Cellars is a monthly wine club that matches you with wines you’ll love. [Take their taste palate quiz]( to see your personalized matches. And now, OZY readers can [use this link for $50 off their first order!]( (applied at checkout) [Buy Now]( trump’s sunny side 1. Not-So-Teflon Don President Trump is sinking in the polls and was derided for not being able to draw much of a crowd Saturday in Tulsa, Oklahoma, for his first rally in months. He’s being battered by a bad economy, persistent racial justice protests and bombshell revelations from former National Security Adviser John Bolton. But there’s still some friendly news on the horizon for Trump … 2. Predictable Polling Bump You can almost set your watch to the polls jumping for the president right after Labor Day. Why? Because that’s when major pollsters usually change their samples from “registered voters” to “likely voters” — a metric that traditionally favors Republicans. Between mid-August and mid-September, the polls moved at least 4 points for the Republicans in the 2004, 2012 and 2016 presidential races (2008 was more of a yo-yo). Joe Biden is [up about 10 points]( in national polls right now, on average. Be prepared for that number to shrink quickly once the summer ends. But the national number is not what you should be watching … 3. Key States The name of the game is 270 electoral votes. Trump got 304 last time, and he has plenty of paths back to a winning number. We know that Dems have dreams about Texas, Georgia and Ohio, but let’s assume those are red for now, and Trump shows up to the dance with 204 electoral votes. He gets back to victory if he can hold Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin. Polling averages have Biden up in 3 of those 4 — but with margins much smaller than his national lead, meaning that Trump has a built-in electoral college advantage. Plus, he can count on extra help from the Republican governors of Arizona and Florida. 4. Debatable Team Trump is challenging Biden to an additional debate — hoping that by showing a vigorous contrast on stage, Trump can win the day. (Biden’s camp says it’s sticking with the three already scheduled.) A major slip by Biden on the biggest possible stage could seal the deal for Trump. 5. Law and Order Going all in against the protests hasn’t yet moved the electoral needle for Trump. But another spasm of violence or a coronavirus outbreak that can be definitively linked to protests could drive voters into Trump’s arms. 6. Cash Rules Biden may have outraised Trump last month, but the incumbent still has one of the biggest financial advantages in history: $187 million extra cash as of the end of April. Trump’s 2016 campaign was patched together with duct tape. This one is a well-oiled machine, perfectly in sync with the Republican National Committee and with the resources to identify and motivate anyone willing to don a red hat. 7. Miracle Cure There won’t be a widespread vaccine by Election Day, but there’s a decent chance the economy will be on the upswing after this spring’s crash. The [Congressional Budget Office projects]( 21.5 percent GDP growth for the third quarter and a fast-sinking unemployment rate (barring new coronavirus-induced lockdowns) just in time for Americans to mail in their ballots. mark your calendar 1. We’re 133 days away … From the fall elections. The Democratic National Convention begins Aug. 17 in Milwaukee (likely with a major remote component), while the Republican National Convention convenes Aug. 24, doing some business in their original site of Charlotte, North Carolina, but with Trump giving his acceptance speech in Jacksonville, Florida. Here are some other dates to watch. 2. June 30 — Another Spicy Dem Primary Former governor (and presidential candidate) John Hickenlooper was thought to be on cruise control toward a general election clash with the most endangered Republican in the Senate, Cory Gardner. But in his primary against former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff, Hickenlooper had to pay a $2,750 fine for ethics violations from his time as governor, when he accepted a plane flight, limo ride and swanky dinners. But Hickenlooper’s biggest gaffe? Saying “every life matters” when referring to BLM protests. 3. July 14 — Trump Tests In Alabama’s Senate race, Trump is backing former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville over former Sen. Jeff Sessions — mostly because Trump wants to humiliate Sessions, his former attorney general who recused himself from the Russia probe. On the ballot in a Texas congressional race is Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician whose nomination to head the Department of Veterans Affairs was torpedoed after he was [accused of overprescribing painkillers and driving drunk](. Could Congress be his consolation prize? 4. Aug. 4 — Squad Up? Rep. Rashida Tlaib — a member of the Squad of liberal first-term congresswomen — faces a serious challenge from Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones. Fellow squadder Ilhan Omar also has a stiff test against Antone Melton-Meaux, a mediator with strong community ties and endorsements ([read more about him on OZY](). Meanwhile in Kansas, Kris Kobach is back. You may remember him as the immigration superhawk who led a voter fraud commission that disbanded without finding Trump’s desired evidence of fraud in the 2016 election … and then blew a governor’s race, losing to a Democrat (in Kansas!) in 2018. Kobach is now running in a Senate primary against Rep. Roger Marshall. around the world 1. Algeria’s Radical Mediator Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune took office in December. He’s now breaking with half a century of non-interventionist policies practiced by the North African nation to carve out a major regional role for the country. Tebboune’s big gamble? Offering to mediate between Libya’s warring factions — a test many others have failed. If he succeeds, Tebboune could turn Algeria into a global power broker. 2. Populism on the Rise in Serbia A 50-year-old former journalist, Aleksandar Vucic is one of Eastern Europe’s rising new populists. His right-wing Serbian Progressive Party won in a landslide Sunday — after several opposition parties boycotted the vote, citing irregularities. As the country tips into what critics call one-party rule, its ascension into the European Union looks unlikely. the big picture 1. Tech + Politics Our senior reporter Nick Fouriezos said a year and a half ago that this election would be won at the intersection of tech and politics. Now, from Facebook to TikTok (which apparently had a role in deflating Trump’s crowd in Tulsa), that’s even more true in the social distancing era. Check out OZY’s groundbreaking coverage of how [campaigns are becoming customer service hubs]( during the pandemic, and the [Russian-born warrior against Russian meddling](. [2. Who Cares?]( In 2016, there were about 245 million voting-age adults in the U.S., and about 136 million of them cast ballots in the presidential race. We told you last fall that mobilization, more than persuasion, would be the key to the 2020 election as [we dove in on the end of apathy]( in American politics. Now, with most people’s minds made up long ago on Trump, we’re seeing how the quest for the missing 110 million is playing out — with racial justice protests spiking across America and the coronavirus throwing up new barriers to voting. Check out our [profile of LaTosha Brown](, who’s finding rural Black voters in ways no one else does. [Read More on OZY]( know these names 1. Rubén Díaz Sr. Meet the pro-life, anti-gay marriage, Trump-curious Democrat in the South Bronx. You read that right. Rev. Rubén Díaz Sr. says he might vote for Trump, despite running as a Democrat in the bluest congressional seat in the country. The Pentecostal minister, New York City councilman and former state legislator — who has crusaded against gay marriage and abortion — might well win today’s primary. Díaz, 77, has near-universal name recognition and a fractured opposition, with 12 candidates running in all. 2. Emilia Sykes Call her the Stacey Abrams of Ohio. Sykes, 34, rose up to become the minority party leader in a red state house at a young age. However, one could say she’s been training for the moment her entire life: Both of her parents held this legislative seat before her, meaning the district has been represented by her family longer than she’s been alive. She will face the same obstacles Abrams has faced, from trying to work with a Republican majority to finding ways to win national attention while still in the minority. Is she a star in the making? 3. Marc Elias and William S. Consovoy Elias, a Democrat, and Consovoy, a Republican, have been leading their respective party’s voting rights clashes across the U.S. The main thrust: Democrats want to expand mail-in balloting during the pandemic, while Republicans want to limit it (Trump says he fears increased mail balloting will juice fraud). Between a possible bump in mail-in balloting and absentee voting, both of which will cause delays in counting, there’s a good chance we won’t know the winner on election night. If it’s a close call, and methods and manners of voting are disputed around the country, could we see this duo arguing before the Supreme Court late this year? That would put Chief Justice John Roberts in the role of William Rehnquist, circa December 2000, with the future of the country hanging — like a chad — in the balance. 4. Giorgia Meloni From a Roman nightclub bartender to movement leader, she’s the AOC of Italy’s far right, as her Brothers of Italy Party gains steam with populist policies like increased public spending and restrictions on immigration. [At a rally last year, she declared](: “I am Giorgia, I am a woman, I am a mother, I am Italian, I am a Christian, and you can’t take that away from me!” To her foes, it smells like the fascism of her country’s past. [TV]( | [Podcasts]( | [News]( | [FESTIVALS]( Modern Media Company OZY Media, 800 West El Camino Mountain View, California 94040 This email was sent to {EMAIL} [Manage Subscriptions]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Read Online](