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Today's Market vs. an Early '00s Movie

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Sat, Sep 24, 2022 12:31 PM

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This market reminds me of a particular movie... SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES We're Living in a Sideways Mar

This market reminds me of a particular movie... SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES [The Oxford Club Special Opportunities]( We're Living in a Sideways Market Matt Benjamin, Senior Markets Expert, The Oxford Club [Matt Benajmin] The current stock market reminds me of one of my favorite movies. [Sideways](. It's not a new release. It came out back in 2004. But I still laugh when I see clips of it. I probably liked this film so much because in part it's about wine and the love of it. It plays out among the vineyards of California's Santa Ynez Valley, after all. But it's also about a man's life - portrayed by the excellent Paul Giamatti - that isn't going particularly well or badly. It's just going kind of... blah. Or as the title suggests, sideways. And this market is about the same. If you're like me, you watch stock indexes every day. And this year they have provided thrills on a weekly and even daily basis. If you look at a chart of the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (also known as the VIX), you can see that clearly. The average volatility this year has been around 26. That's much higher than 2021's average (19.7) but not as high as 2020's, which spiked above 29 due to the COVID-19 recession and market drop. But in the eight years that preceded the pandemic (2012 through 2019), [volatility averaged only about 15](. So in comparison to the pre-pandemic years, these are indeed volatile times. Unprecedented Events Why are markets so volatile? I suppose it's primarily because we're still emerging from a catastrophic global event that altered the way we live, work and trade. It also evoked unprecedented policy responses, including voluntarily shutting the U.S. economy down and then pumping trillions of dollars of fiscal and monetary stimulus back into it to jolt it back to life. And yet, while the market has had dramatic moves since mid-May, the net change has been just about 1%. Sideways. That's why it's so important to take a step back and look at the long-term trends. My colleague Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green did just that in a recent piece on [why he's not bothered by bear markets](. When you do look back, Alex points out, you'll see that the best buying opportunities are in bear markets. In fact, like Alex, most great investors view bear markets as buying opportunities. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) made some $45 billion in net purchases in the stock market in the second quarter, one when the S&P 500 fell 16%. That followed $41 billion in stock purchases in the first quarter, when the S&P dropped about 6%. But here's what's really telling about those investments... Berkshire reported a net loss of $53 billion in the second quarter due to the overall market falling sharply. Three of its biggest holdings - Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and American Express (NYSE: AXP) - all fell more than 20%. Does this mean Buffett's purchases were a failure? Not at all. [It means he's looking at the long-term value of these stocks and ignoring daily and weekly volatility.]( We should do the same. Invest wisely, Matt P.S. In an inflationary environment like this one, it's in your best interest to get the best research and insights in order to make the best decisions for your portfolio. And Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld recently teamed up with the esteemed Larry Kudlow - veteran economist and former presidential advisor - to do exactly that. [Go here to watch their conversation.]( SPONSORED [Larry Kudlow: "If You're Worried About Inflation, Do THIS Now!"]( [If You're Worried About Inflation]( Two Ph.D. professors say one approach could create a "never-ending income stream." [Larry Kudlow investigates here.]( [The Oxford Club] You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Oxford Club Special Opportunities. Oxford Club Special Opportunities is published by The Oxford Club. Questions? Check out our [FAQs](. Trying to reach us? [Contact us here.]( Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox. [Privacy Policy]( | [Whitelist Oxford Club Special Opportunities]( | [Unsubscribe]( © 2022 The Oxford Club, LLC All Rights Reserved The Oxford Club | [105 West Monument Street](#) | [Baltimore, MD 21201](#) North America: [1.800.589.3430](#) | International: [+1.443.353.4334](#) | Fax: [1.410.329.1923](#) [Oxfordclub.com]( Your Legal Questions... Answered What is The Oxford Club? The Oxford Club is a financial publisher with a highly rated track record. We deliver unique and well-researched financial and investment ideas to our Members. What do you do? We share our team of experts' industry knowledge and timely insights with our Members so they have the financial literacy and tools needed to build a rich, fulfilling life. We do not provide any personalized financial advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. Instead, the information we share is directed toward a larger audience of all subscribed Members. So you'll make me rich? Maybe! But not exactly. Our goal is to provide the research and information required to help you make you rich. Investment markets have inherent risks, and we can't guarantee future profits. Why should I trust you? We offer information based on what we think will provide the most value to our Members. Our business depends on Members' interest in our ideas and satisfaction with their results. We've been around for 30-plus years because our Members have continually chosen to stay with us (many of them for life). We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in their own securities recommendations to readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after online publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publications before following an initial recommendation. So I can fire my investment advisor? No! Any investments recommended by The Oxford Club should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

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