She's all we've got! Look for this specific data to avoid the market dropping further... SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES [The Oxford Club Special Opportunities]( Why the Federal Reserve WANTS the Market to Drop Matt Benjamin, Senior Markets Expert, The Oxford Club [Matt Benajmin] Believe it or not, the Federal Reserve [wants the stock market to drop](. Usually, Fed officials don't comment on the stock market. They're supposed to be steering the broad economy, not stock prices. If asked about the market, they'll say investors should make their own decisions. Fed officials even feign a blasé disregard for what's going on in the stock market. But trust me when I say they are obsessed with it (I spent five years advising global hedge funds about what the Federal Reserve was thinking). Of course, the Fed at this moment does want stock prices to go sideways or even drop - anything but rise - because rising stock prices make people feel wealthier and cause them to spend more, [easing financial conditions and stoking inflation](. Rewind to Friday, August 26. At the Fed's annual monetary policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Chairman Jerome Powell spoke forcefully and directly in an attempt to convince investors that the Fed will not pivot to a neutral or rate-lowering stance later this year or early next. Essentially, he was trying to wring the last bits of optimism out of the markets. His effort worked like a charm. The S&P 500 Index plummeted 3.4% in the hours after his speech and dropped nearly 6% over the next four trading sessions. Mission Accomplished (and Admitted) Of course, Powell said nothing in that speech about wanting markets to drop. But last week one of his top deputies admitted it. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he was "happy to see how Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech was received" by the stock market. Kashkari added that he "was not excited" when the market rallied after the Fed's July 27 interest rate announcement. So there you have it. It seems the Fed is determined to send stocks lower this year and even into 2023, certainly until inflation - currently [running at 8.5% year over year]( - falls to 4% or so. No Respite for Markets? That's some pretty depressing news for investors. After all, the economy is booming if you judge by corporate profits, the labor market and consumer sentiment. So should investors just [resign themselves to a down or sideways stock market]( this year? Well, not necessarily... If the economic data comes in just right - good but not great, with the gap between labor demand and labor supply starting to close - the Fed just might be able to nail the holy grail of central banking, a soft economic landing. That would mean Powell and company could slow the economy and [tame inflation without tipping the economy into recession]( and dipping further into bear market territory. It's all about the data, [as Powell said in his Jackson Hole address](. He specifically said that upcoming Fed decisions on interest rates will depend "on the totality of the incoming data." So if the data is in the "Goldilocks zone" - neither too hot nor too cold - the Fed and investors may get a break this year, and we may even see a gently rising stock market. Fortunately, the jobs report on Friday, September 2, brought real hope for this. In fact, commentators were calling the Labor Department report "[a Goldilocks report]( That's because the 315,000 new jobs added in August matched expectations - no evidence of recession but not too robust either. Better yet, the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%, a six-month high. That's right, I said better. Remember that the unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force (those working or actively looking for work) who don't have a job. That rate can rise if people are losing jobs - that's bad. It can also rise if more people come off the sidelines and start looking for work - that's good. And that's what happened in August. The closely watched labor force participation rate jumped in August, from 62.1% to 62.4%. [Back to Work]( That small increase may seem insignificant. But it's exactly what the Fed has been hoping for. It means that many of those people who quit the labor force during the COVID-19 pandemic are starting to return. In fact, the August participation rate is the highest since March 2020, which marked the beginning of the COVID-19 era in the U.S. Maybe, just maybe, the era of workers deciding to not work anymore is coming to an end. That would mean that the huge gap between job openings and workers looking for jobs - which is [a huge part of the inflation problem]( since it drives the vicious wage-price spiral - is closing. Sure, the jobs report was just one data point. There will be many others to guide the Fed's hand on rates. The consumer price index report on September 13 will be a major one. As we watch that data roll in, let's keep rooting for Goldilocks. She's all we've got! Invest wisely, Matt SPONSORED [The One Proven Path to a "Never-Ending Income Stream"]( [One Proven Path]( If you're worried about running out of money in retirement... you need to see [what two Ph.D. professors have uncovered](. [The Oxford Club] You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Oxford Club Special Opportunities.
Oxford Club Special Opportunities is published by The Oxford Club. Questions? Check out our [FAQs](. Trying to reach us? [Contact us here.]( Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox. [Privacy Policy]( | [Whitelist Oxford Club Special Opportunities]( | [Unsubscribe]( © 2022 The Oxford Club, LLC All Rights Reserved
The Oxford Club | [105 West Monument Street](#) | [Baltimore, MD 21201](#)
North America: [1.800.589.3430](#) | International: [+1.443.353.4334](#) | Fax: [1.410.329.1923](#)
[Oxfordclub.com]( Your Legal Questions... Answered What is The Oxford Club? The Oxford Club is a financial publisher with a highly rated track record. We deliver unique and well-researched financial and investment ideas to our Members. What do you do? We share our team of experts' industry knowledge and timely insights with our Members so they have the financial literacy and tools needed to build a rich, fulfilling life. We do not provide any personalized financial advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. Instead, the information we share is directed toward a larger audience of all subscribed Members. So you'll make me rich? Maybe! But not exactly. Our goal is to provide the research and information required to help you make you rich. Investment markets have inherent risks, and we can't guarantee future profits. Why should I trust you? We offer information based on what we think will provide the most value to our Members. Our business depends on Members' interest in our ideas and satisfaction with their results. We've been around for 30-plus years because our Members have continually chosen to stay with us (many of them for life). We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in their own securities recommendations to readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after online publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publications before following an initial recommendation. So I can fire my investment advisor? No! Any investments recommended by The Oxford Club should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.