The Winds of War Are Blowing

And investors are feeling the effects. SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES [The Oxford Club Special Opportunities]( The Winds of War Are Blowing Matt Benjamin, Senior Markets Expert, The Oxford Club [Matt Benajmin] The winds of war are suddenly blowing. And the uncertainty they are causing is crushing markets. Markets abhor uncertainty. They can price in good news and bad news and accurately evaluate risks. But they can't deal with events or situations that are highly unpredictable. And that's exactly what we're seeing now. Earlier this week in The Oxford Insight, Senior Research Analyst Anthony Summers wrote that even though markets are down and a bear market seems very possible, fear remains the biggest enemy. "It is easy to be disciplined when things are going your way, much like it's easy to embrace market risks when all you see is upside," [Anthony wrote](. "But it is far more difficult when the opposite is true, when fear - not greed - dominates market psychology." I think Anthony's got it right there. But I also tapped our strategists, who have decades of investing experience between them and have seen it all in the markets - from panics to terror attacks to oil crises. Here's what they had to say. "Putin's incursion in Ukraine was anything but unexpected," Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green told me. "It is generally a mistake - short of the threat of all-out war - to run your portfolio based on geopolitical 'possibilities.' So I don't recommend that investors make major changes to their portfolios right now. However, I've been recommending energy stocks, gold stocks and inflation-adjusted Treasurys for months. All are doing well." Alex is exactly right. The safe havens he's recommended are soaring now. Energy is the best-performing sector at the moment (again, [see Anthony's article]( while gold pushed above $1,900 this week and is again nearing its all-time high. Higher Gas Prices and Geopolitics Engineering Strategist David Fessler agreed about energy and had a pragmatic suggestion. "It looks like oil and gas prices could go even higher, regardless of the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine situation," Dave said. "As far as equities go, oil and gas are good short- and medium-term bets. If folks are tired of paying high gas prices, now is the perfect time to bid gas pumps goodbye and buy electric vehicles (EVs)." Meanwhile, Chief Trends Strategist Matthew Carr provided some historical context and a bit of reassurance. [Matthew reminded us]( that the current Russo-Ukrainian War actually began in February 2014 and that Russia annexed Crimea the following month. Over the past eight years, thousands have died in this conflict, and we've seen escalations in 2016, 2018 and 2021. "U.S. markets have ignored all of this until now," he said. He added... And that's more telling than anything. Negativity has its own gravity. Right now, investors are drawn to negative headlines more than anything else. That makes for a volatile, dangerous and irrational market. If it wasn't Russia-Ukraine, it would be China, inflation, the Fed, rising rates, rising prices at the pump or consumer spending. And we still have midterms up ahead. I forecast that 2022 would be a difficult year for investors. Fears are that the economic recovery is too fragile and that the slightest bump could derail it. In turn, it's been panic after panic after panic... and that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. The bottom line from Matthew... "In all honesty, Russia-Ukraine doesn't matter - it hasn't mattered for eight years. What matters is it's a negative headline and we keep getting caught in the event horizon of one negative headline after another." A Better Idea Finally, Quantitative Strategist Nicholas Vardy said investors may do well to ignore Ukraine and [focus on a very different part of the world... Brazil](. Brazil's stock market is red-hot at the moment. Less than two months into 2022, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE: EWZ) has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 30%. That's been driven by the fact that Brazil is a major producer and exporter of commodities like iron ore, soybeans and petroleum. Commodity producers thrive in inflationary environments. And this week, Wells Fargo predicted that we're at the beginning of another commodity supercycle. Intriguing, to say the least. As usual, our strategists are right on top of the latest news and trends, providing insights you can't get many other places. And if you want to hear more from them and other investment experts directly and in person, you'll want to register for the [24th Annual Investment U Conference]( taking place in sunny San Diego, California, from April 28-30. There, our strategists and guest presenters will detail all their latest research and investment insights. If you're interested, [just click here to register](. Invest wisely, Matt SPONSORED [Mark Your Calendar! It's Time to Meet...]( This April 28-30, the 24th Annual Investment U Conference is taking place in charming San Diego, California. During this highly anticipated event, you'll learn exactly where you can find the best bargains in this inflationary world and expensive market. And you don't want to miss it. To get all the details on this year's big event, [go here now](. [The Oxford Club] You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Oxford Club Special Opportunities. Oxford Club Special Opportunities is published by The Oxford Club. Questions? Check out our [FAQs](. Trying to reach us? [Contact us here.]( Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox. 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