VIX wakes up

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] March 10, 2024 [volman, vol man, vol,] VIX wakes up Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… [If some of my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, our Glossary is here.]( Last Week:  “Non-Farm payrolls and Jpow testimony this week. I would like him to say something about the insane spending going on right in DC but he probably won’t. Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) is still soft, meaning money is going to anything remotely AI related. AAPL makes phones so while it is a money spinning company, the larger growth $ is moving away. Something to watch. I am looking for just a flat to up SPX week with a small VIX move, with the lows likely by Friday post-NFP numbers. The Vol Space is looking uninteresting, at least for now.” Jpow said nothing on the insane government spending so once again i get to be disappointed by our officials. Sigh…but not a surprise. Well SPX was just down for the week but did provide an all time high, close and intraday high. VIX started the week lower, spiked on Friday and settled much higher.  I was totally wrong here. That did not matter for me trading, with wins in all products and Weekly Profits Cycles is at ATH P/L. What is significant is VIX is up after known news items which is not normal. We should have a volatile SPX week coming. Technology is the key and Nvidia Corp (Ticker: NVDA) had a 10% intraday reversal from the top after weeks of relentless rally. It appears there is some unwinding of the Semi/Ikd Tech trade underway. That is usually somewhat vol dampening as SPX only managed down ,6% on the day Friday. [ded] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [ded] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. As one can see from the Sigma Volatility Chart above, vols launched, sold and rallied. What i noticed that in the teeth of the selloff, SPX only managed down .75% tops. VIX was ready to pop then Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) rallied $4.00. The higher sigmas means we should see larger intraday ranges even if the close to close there is not much yet. 10-day realized vol is down to 10.41%. That is crazy low with VIX near 15% 30 Day Realized Vol, known also as Historical Volatility, is running 12.63. Most bull markets tend to run in the single digit realized vols. This bull is running hot, mostly because of the 1 way freight train up. [ded] SPX realized volatility snap on Mar 08, 2024 VIX cash closed higher on the week to land in the middle of Zone 1. I have a few junk 13 puts in VXX and VIX that I don't think will come to fruition. They might but not likely.  VIX ZONE 1 9-13 VIX ZONE 2 13.01 TO 17.99 VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 VIX ZONE 4 24<  The front end of the curve in VIX is dead flat. That means most SPX IVs are flat across the term so liquidity providers are keeping IV frothy moving to next week after headline event news is out. That is not normal. The contango is still a reflection of the lower realized vols the market is in. [ded] Closing VIX curve, Mar 01, 2024 [ded] Closing VIX cash and curve, Mar 08, 2024 Higher VIX is always a signal. And we closed the week near the peak. Mark and I covered this on the Friday show at Tradier Hub and on our [Option Pit YouTube channel](. [ded] I expect a rocky week this week with significant rotation out of semis. What the Humphrey Hawkins testimony produced was no end in sight for government spending. I expect a volatile week with SPX taking a dive but recovering. VIX should see a 16 or higher peak. The bull is still here but this week could be a much needed break.  [Weekly Profit Cycles is opening for a quarterly subscription if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively. The last 9 Opens in WPC have been nice wins.]( Let’s Go - AG  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, fvix, header,] Money Moving Back to AAPL? Hey Traders! Today in our look ahead video, we'll cover: - Levels in the Major Indexes - The 5 Stocks on my Watchlist - Some sectors that interest me right now - A look at Licia's Candlestick class this week [ded]( [Click here to watch the video!]( - Mark  [frep] Ticker of the week: Nvidia Corp Hey Traders, It's NVDA’s market…everyone else is just along for the ride…. Typically I just tease what stock we are going to break down…but frankly…there is no way to talk about NVDA without revealing the stock. NVDA is now a 2 trillion dollar company…bigger than all other companies except AAPL and Microsoft… NVDA seemingly is going to the moon…it is the stock that everyone loves… So is it going to 1000…is it going to 1500? Or is there an overhype reversal coming? [Click to read our breakdown…]( - Mark  [logo, header] The halving cycle still continues to be the BTC narrative  Hey Crypto Traders! Bitcoin all-time highs are approaching (about $69k) and the best quote I heard all week was “selling all-time highs in Bitcoin seems like a bad move.” Agreed! Market Max-Pain right now isn’t a Bitcoin pull-back, in my opinion. Most people are not invested in Bitcoin (or any crypto) and watching this rally from the sidelines IS THE Max Pain. I think we will continue higher! [cry] The halving cycle still continues to be the BTC narrative. This is expected to occur in April of this year. A supply issuance drop combined with one of the best performing ETFs in history is very bullish for this “fixed supply” asset. Then mix in the MicroStrategy INDEX EFFECT and you really have compounding demand. From a volatility perspective, it seems like overall volatility can move higher too. (Volatility RV cone, 5yrs) [cry] Looking at the Realized volatility cone of the past 5-years, we can see most RV is below median range. Hedging volatility risk, at least somewhat, using call spreads is likely a smart move, given the ∆25 RR-Skew (as a % of ATM vol) is near 5-year highs. (Bitcoin RR-Skew/ATM IV 60dte) [cry]I will be bringing you more crypto levels, data and news absolutely free every week. - Greg  [fpip] Whatever You Are, Be A Good One Hi Shoppers, Being a writer of this little newsletter, Profits in Pumps, I am always looking for the next thing to talk or write about. So I collect quotes and anecdotes from wherever I see them. Not only do they provide inspiration for my daily life but they can become a good topic for my newsletter. For example, I can use the following two quotes to convince you to sign up for my upcoming Candlestick Basics Course beginning this week. The course will be four thirty minute sessions over the next two weeks. And it will only cost you $1.00. [Be sure to sign up here.]( Oh, I almost forgot to add the inspirational quotes. Abraham Lincoln said, “ Whatever you are, be a good one.” We all want to be good traders, right? Having the basics of candlestick reading will help you achieve that. The other quote comes from author and comedian Greg Behrendt: “I’ve learned that anything in life worth having comes from patience and hard work.” We all know trading takes hard work and you definitely need patience. My candlestick course will not be hard work as it is actually easy to learn, and fun too, but it will be time and work to learn the patterns and implement them into reading the stock charts. [So come join me to improve your trading and have a good time.]( [Let’s take a look at where the market is going from here.]( - Licia  [fprm] [prm] Hey Influence Traders, It’s good to be right. I’ve been hot on defense and energy stocks. In the defense sector, I’m deep into drones. A solid stock, and one that Mark Sebastian and I put a trade on, is Aerovironment (Ticker: AVAV). AVAV’s stock price was up over 42% the past week (20% in one day). On the energy side, we looked at Nuscale Power Corp (Ticker: SMR). Unfortunately, we did not put on a trade. When you have conviction on an idea you only make money if you act. It was a missed opportunity as SMR was up over 62% the past month. Much of that was driven by a squeeze on short sellers. Another area of energy that I keep a close eye on is lithium. Lithium is under stress due to a drop in demand for electric vehicles. But the combo of SMR and lithium gave Andrew Giovinazzi and me an idea. [Let’s Spin Up Another Trade]( - Frank Don't miss when our traders go live! Get an alert everytime we open the live rooms to all of our readers for free by selecting the calendar you use below. 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