VIX closes at a 17 day low

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] March 3, 2024 [volman, vol man, vol,] VIX closes at a 17 day low Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… [If some of my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, our Glossary is here.]( Last Week: “There is very little catalyst on the calendar that has dominated movement in 2024 for this week. This is usually a recipe for a VIX collapse for at least 1 point or more which would send SVIX flying this week. With Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) staying weak, that should dampen SPX somewhat. I am looking for just a flat SPX week with a larger VIX down move this week.” I spent 3 days in Baltimore with Mark and the Option Pit crew. I really like the statue of George Washington in Monument Square near where we stayed. Look for more good stuff from us in the near future. Our goal coming out of the meeting was to make option trading easier to learn. I am good at finding trades but I just realized not everyone can follow along. We are going to fix that. As far as my prognostication goes, SPX was flat all week until Friday with VIX closing 13.11. That is over .6 points in drop for VIX which is quite a smoking. Where the market animal forces got back on track was the AI bandwagon. Once again Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) was soft all week keeping performance in SPX muted. All the economic news tilted positive but at this point the GDP growth out of government spending is giving terrible returns. That USGov deficit is still something to watch but for now, AI trumps all. I still believe inflation is sapping growth for the bear case. Technology historically has been the productivity mover and AI will bring us into new territory. By the end of this week, 5000 SPX is a million miles away. [volman] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [volman] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. As one can see from the Sigma Volatility Chart above, most vols have been flat down but unable to make new lows. Vol can go much lower, a whole quadrant, but it has not been able to do that yet in 2024. 10-day realized vol is down to 12%. For VIX to stay in Zone 1 we need half of that into the 6-8% range. Note the average 60 day realized vol (HV) is 10.84%. That is the result of a protracted, strong rally from the beginning of the year. [volman] SPX realized volatility snap on Mar 01, 2024 VIX cash closed lower on the week moving down to the dead bottom of Zone 2. That has been a sticky area the entire year so far. VIX ZONE 1 9-13 VIX ZONE 2 13.01 TO 17.99 VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 VIX ZONE 4 24< We have what I call a weak contango with the front terms only fractionally below the back terms. The market has yet to fully “release” short term implied volatility. This is the same issue I saw last week. All this means is shorter term implied volatility per term is not dropping to lower levels so market makers are adjusting for the 1 way market. [volman]Closing VIX curve, Mar 01, 2024 [volman] Closing VIX cash and curve, Feb 23, 2024 The VIX really did not get much of a move this week except down. Any real volatility is because SPX keeps going one way mostly and VIX pricing will skew up to compensate. Too far too fast means the underlying price of SPX is out running the 30 day straddle value of SPX too fast. [volman] VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles Non-Farm payrolls and Jpow testimony this week. I would like him to say something about the insane spending going on right in DC but he probably won’t. Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) is still soft, meaning money is going to anything remotely AI related. AAPL makes phones so while it is a money spinning company, the larger growth $ is moving away. Something to watch. I am looking for just a flat to up SPX week with a small VIX move, with the lows likely by Friday post-NFP numbers. The Vol Space is looking uninteresting at least for now.  [Weekly Profit Cycles is opening for a quarterly subscription if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively. The last 7 Opens in WPC have been nice wins.]( - Vol Man  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [fpip] A Nice Recharge Hi Shoppers, Well, we’ve returned from our Option Pit company gathering. Wow! It’s pretty amazing what can get accomplished while we are all in the same room. We have people living all over the country: Texas, Maine, Colorado, South Carolina, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Toronto. Of course we meet and speak with each other every day … remotely. But there is nothing like being together live. It brings a nice recharging and new excitement that kinda gets lost in the day to day. The plan is to do it more often which will definitely benefit Option Pit as a whole. [Just in case you are not familiar with Option Pit, we are options traders and educators, check us out.]( Also, if you are ever in Baltimore Maryland and you are looking for that perfect crab cake, you have got to go here [(.  [fpip]( Sooo gooood … and it is only a couple miles from the airport. [Onto the new trade idea in Wayfair (Ticker: W).](  - Licia   [glossary, logo] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is:  NYSE - The New York Stock Exchange, also called the “Big Board.” [ftsp] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. Click the button below to schedule a call with our concierge Customer Care Team to find your best fit today. 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