VIX closes at a 10 day low

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] February 25, 2024 [volman, vol man, vol,] VIX closes at a 10 day low Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… [If some of my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, our Glossary is here.]( Last Week: “The March Rate decision seems dead so from that point of view there is little gas to put on equity fires.  Nvidia Corp (Ticker: NVDA) are coming up early next week and could provide a volatility catalyst. VIX is looking for more to be honest. So far, CPI/PPI combo did not overwhelm markets. My guess is the VIX stays elevated to NVDA earnings and then tails off next week. NVDA will be the height of the earnings season then SPX will struggle to regain momentum. I am looking for just a flat SPX week with an outside chance for a VIX shock post-NVDA.”  Well, NVDA really provided an SPX catalyst as SPX jumped 2% on Thursday. VIX did have a 16 to 13.75 range for the week but nothing crazy. FOMC minutes left traders with a “higher for longer” taste in their mouths for the foreseeable future but endless growth from NVDA trumped all.  You can even argue from the Wednesday chart with the end of day ramp in SPX that NVDA earnings leaked early. My prediction was NVDA would be the height of earnings season and SPX was flat for Friday. What pushes stocks higher from here is a mystery. Markets hate uncertainty and the FOMC helped some by quashing short term rate drop hopes. I think traders have gotten used to the higher rates. We end the week at all time highs for SPX and darn near for the Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ), 4850 low is now 250 points away from where we are now, or just under 5%. Every .05 now is new territory for SPX. [fstp] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [fstp] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. Most of the Friday Sigmas closed in a more bullish, non -accelerating posture. Lows of the week are lows of the week so the terms are separating indicating less action is expected in SPX next week. 10-day realized vol jumped to 15% with the parabolic move Thursday but that was a 1 day event. There is nothing remotely close for market moving potential in the next two weeks. [fstp] SPX realized volatility snap on Feb 23, 2024 VIX cash closed lower on the week moving down to the bottom of Zone 2. That has been a sticky area the entire year so far. VIX ZONE 1 9-13 VIX ZONE 2 13.01 TO 17.99 VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 VIX ZONE 4 24< We have what I call a weak contango with the front terms only fractionally below the back terms. The market has yet to fully “release” short term implied volatility. [fstp] Closing VIX curve, Feb 16, 2024 [fstp] Closing VIX cash and curve, Feb 23, 2024 The VIX lift into the FOMC and continuing right into NVDA earnings was underpriced if anything. SPX moved 100 points in a day on Thursday so VIX was predicting a larger move, it's just that SPX moved bigger. [fstp] VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles There is very little catalyst on the calendar that has dominated movement in 2024 for this week. This is usually a recipe for a VIX collapse for at least 1 point or more which would send SVIX flying this week. With Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) staying weak, that should dampen SPX somewhat. I am looking for just a flat SPX week with a larger VIX down move this week. [Weekly Profit Cycles is opening for a quarterly subscription if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively. The last 5 Opens in WPC have been nice wins.]( Let’s Go - Vol Man  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, fvix, header,] Market Levels, Gold, Weekly Watchlist and A Short Squeeze Hey Traders! In today’s video we’ll cover: - Levels in the major indexes - My Weekly Watchlist - What’s up with the VIX - Where Gold is currently at [yt]( [Click here to watch the video!]( - Mark  [frep] Ticker of the Week Hey Traders, The final earnings from the Magnificent 7 are out. NVDIA had a nice report…. But this week we are going to focus on a different name in this group.  You know we hit Microsoft last week…so it isn't that. We have done AAPL recently as well. But this firm is in the middle of two huge transitions despite being worth more than a trillion dollars. Can this company break through this challenge and explode higher…or is this a sign of a top? [Read on to seeÂ]( - Mark  [logo, header] The ETH supply burn Hey Crypto Traders, We continue to see beautiful inflows into the Spot ETFs across the board (except for GBTC, which is nearing neutral flows). [fcry] So what now? My strongest thesis going forward revolves around ETH. My guess is that a lot of market participants missed a chunk of the BTC move and now want to buy something that hasn’t “moved” yet. [fcry] Everyone is talking about the Bitcoin halving in April, but that’s nothing compared to the active “REDUCTION” in ETH supply already occurring since Sept. 2022. Combine this ETH “Supply BURN” with dormant STAKED ETH and mix in a SPOT ETF actively putting ETH into cold storage… all of a sudden the supply story for ETH is as bullish as fundamentals can get! [fcry] In terms of ∆25 RR-Skew, the April (60-day) expiration has a historically expensive ∆25 Call (This chart has nearly 5-yrs of data). This makes call spreads interesting. Owning something like (+1)3000-C/(-1)3800-C for about $200, seems appealing. I will be bringing you more crypto levels, data and news absolutely free every week. - Greg Magadini  [fpip] There Are Other Mega Stocks Hi Shoppers, I know everyone is all gung ho and all over AI. It’s the hottest sexiest thing in town right now. Any company that mentions it on their earnings call gets a boost in stock price. We looked at nvidia live the [other night]( and broke down their earnings. We’ve been having great success and tons of excitement around [Zone Trader](. So let’s stay in pocket and look at another easily tradable stock. My pitchfork and price targets are below. Back in January, my pick of the year was Costco (Ticker: COST). It started 2024 trading $650. I called for it to be trading $750 by year end. Friday it traded $742.50. I still like COST, it has much more upside. Here is my pitchfork: [pip] The next resistance level comes in at $774 and then $840. I do love the COST store, too. If you are a member you know exactly what I am talking about. Each visit you want to go down every aisle because they are always adding new items. I generally go every four to six weeks and plan on a large haul and spending a couple hours there. They are very good about adding healthy food items, too. In one shopping trip you can buy a great variety of food, books, booze, paper goods, flowers, jewelry, clothes, toys, vitamins, toiletries, and small appliances. Also, if you are booking a rental car, COST has the best prices. Their mini food counter is famous for the hot dogs and their gas station has competitive prices. I use the COST Visa card and get cash back. They use certain percentages for each category of spending. My check for 2023 was over $1300. They email it to you and you can just drop it into your bank account. Membership I believe is $100 a year, and well worth it. Become a COST member, you will love it. [Continue here for a long play in COST.]( - Licia  [fprm] There are Other Chips in the Sea Hey Influence Traders, I’m back! Andrew Giovinazzi did a bang-up job in my absence … cause that’s what he does. I spent the past week with a group of newly minted millionaires discussing where they are going to deploy their newfound cash. They were definitely interested in some market ideas that I’ll share with you next week after I finish up some meetings to firm them up. So look for that next week. I then went to a wedding in Western Canada with a bunch of Seattle based tech folks. The talk of the town was obviously Nvidia (Ticker: NVDA). But NVDA beat the talk. It’s almost as if they have a giant, evolving, supercomputer on their side. In the words of NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang, “I’m 50 moves ahead of you and everybody else.” Not everyone saw that blowout coming … but Mark Sebastian did! He crushed a trade. The question, of course, is whether NVDA can keep its foot on the gas. Jensen Huang thinks so because he is calling for another exceptional quarter. While I love jumping on a bandwagon trade … or a Mardi gras float … as much as the next trader, perhaps there are some other Chips in the sea. Ones that are not run by the new Miles Dyson. [The Non-Skynet Chip Company]( - Frank   [glossary, logo] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is:  Backtest - A re-test of a breakout move above/below a key support/resistance level that either confirms or rejects the initial breakout... [ftsp] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. 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