5000 SPX and the rally is just beginning

SuperBowl Edition [logo SB] Marks brand new Directional Trading strategy is undefeated since September - and Thursday, Feb 15 at 8pm ET he’s revealing how he made $14,983. [Sign up now and receive the next 8 stocks on his watchlist as a bonus!]( [volman, vol man, vol,] Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… [If some of my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, our Glossary is here.]( Last Week: “The bullish expectation is too strong and stocks are too close to 5000 to not see it at least once. The big issues will be whether the bid for VIX was Mideast action or not. Right now I have to go with a drop in VIX overall with VIX9D only 13.04%. I am leaning short VIX in Weekly Profits Cycles.” The weekly prognostication was 100% right. I did ride some SPDR S&P 500 Trust (Ticker: SPY) call calendars higher in OP Mentoring with the happy gap on Tuesday leaving SPX 4900 in the dustbin.  VIX did drop modestly from last week across the board but I will explain below why it is very hard for VIX to close lower with the market moving in one direction. Once again Tech is leading with blowout earnings in AI sensitive names like ARM Holdings (Ticker: ARM) and Palantir Technologies Inc (Ticker: PLTR).  I rode PLTR in the Easy Trade Button for a 27% gain only to watch it post over 100% a day later. Those are good problems to have and I continue to hold PLTR shares since the Trading Legion days picking up more stock on short puts over the last two years. Tech and Blockbuster weight loss drugs are driving the market higher right now. The CPI number hits Tuesday which should be another catalyst. The surprise will be a hotter number but for now I think the market narrative is rates are where they are and not going down anytime soon. AI will take care of the rest so Big Tech Earnings growth is enough to power stocks higher. [fstp] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [fstp] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. 10-day realized vol is 13.27 after the steep stop and drop the week before last. With SPX up 14 of the last 15 weeks, 60 day realized volatility is less than 10%. That is how VIX breaks into new low territory with longer term realized volatility so low. VIX cash relative to that is quite high. [fstp] SPX realized volatility snap on Feb 09, 2024 VIX cash is lower this week which is another bullish trend for SPX. What is keeping VIX higher is what I call a “right tail” effect. With SPX moving higher from the ATM, implied volatility (IV) gets dragged higher since IV has a hard time pricing a one way market. IV and VIX will back off if the market goes south for a day or two. I traded SPX options as a market maker in the 90’s and can attest to the right tail pull of the bull market in 1994-1995. Right Tail - upside call skew Left Tail - downside put skew [fstp] Closing VIX curve, Feb 02 and Feb 09 2024 [fstp] Closing VIX cash and curve, Feb 09, 2024 VIX did not close on the dead lows but close to it. If the CPI number is not a bad surprise expect a slightly lower number next week. The crazy VIX Oct future is holding the election volatility. [fstp] VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles CPI, CPI, CPI I think the market is underpricing the number Tuesday and I will have a special Weekly Profit Cycles event Monday. A flat number sees 5100 SPX. There is some uncertainty around the SCOTUS decision with Trump running for POTUS again. If you dont think Washington DC plays a role in volatility in markets: You have not paid attention the last 10 years You are not looking at the crazy bid for VIX in the election cycle in the VIX futures chart above The good news is that the USA mostly works no matter who is President, which is why the SPX averages 7% a year. [Weekly Profit Cycles is opening for new subscriptions if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively.]( Enjoy the game! - Vol Man  [logo, pit profits] - Easy Button - SVIX Feb16 37/41 strangle closed for 25% gain - Easy Button - XOM Mar01 100/104 strangle closes for a 10% gain Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, header, fvix] Let’s Start The Week With A Trade Idea In today's video we'll cover: - A Trade Idea To Start Your Trading Week - Why CPI Matters - An Opportunity This Thursday [YT]( [Watch the video here!]( - Mark  [logo] Hello Traders, Let me introduce myself. I am Greg Magadini, a Chartered Financial Analyst. Currently, I am the Director of Derivatives at Amberdata which acquired Genesis Volatility, the company I co-founded. Option Pit and I are partnering up to bring you the playbook to the coming increased trading and opportunities within crypto and securities associated. And the best news is - I’m not another pontificator or a theorist on crypto. Mark and I joined up because I have data analysis about Crypto that no one but the loyal folks at Option Pit will have access to. I have been active in the crypto space for ten years and trading for fifteen years. Prior to creating Genesis Volatility, I was a proprietary trader for DRW and Chopper Trading in Chicago. Here’s my mug shot[gm] So let’s talk about cryptocurrencies. While browsing the market this week, I’m looking for cheap optionality in the market. Option venues like Deribit, Aevo, Synquote and Lyra offer both BTC and ETH options. Today, ETH implied volatility is starting to look interesting in my eyes. If we look at the current term structure, the March 29th expirations look especially attractive. This is the longest maturity before the leg higher in April. The Red horizontal line is 30-day RV which is substantially above the current 30-day implied. [fcry] [fcry] To contextualize a bit more, the current ATM IV for ETH is near all-time lows. The ETH Dencun upgrade is scheduled from March 13th. This is the biggest upgrade since April 2023 when we had the “Shanghai” upgrade. This might be a catalyst for volatility. - Greg  [fpip] Add This to Your Calendar  Hi Shoppers, Mark Sebastian has been planning something special for you. We all know what a great option strategist Mark is. He has a new strategy he has been beta testing for the last six months. [gif] During that time he placed eight trades and they were all very nicely profitable. That’s a pretty incredible track record. Even better is his new strategy concentrates on how to participate in those high flying stocks without tying up your capital by paying those expensive stock prices. You can own stocks like AMZN, AAPL, and even NVDA for 98% off the stock price. [Mark is going to hold a live session Thursday night at 8:00 ET to explain his new system.]( I know I will be there and you should too. At the very least you will get the eight stocks currently on his list. [Once you have secured your seat , I have a new trade idea for you.]( - Licia   [glossary, logo] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is: Spike - An immediate price change in a security where the relative move is much higher than the normal volatility [ftsp] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. 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