4976 SPX New Closing Record! Plus one of the best trading tips I can give you.

[fstp, logo, header] 0DTE trading is producing same-day, triple-digit gains, and February is off to a fast start with big market moves.  [Tarde it with us.]( [volman, vol man, vol,] 4976 SPX New Closing Record!  Plus one of the best trading tips I can give you. Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… Last Week: “VIX dove early in the week only to rebid as short term IV started placing bets around FOMC. Traders keep the IV at a just increasing rate to hold the option premium levels from getting too low. Upside call buying is keeping implied volatility (IV) bid. The earnings are the key to 5000 SPX, but I think the bigger upside moves are from the Fed not raising as opposed to the crazy notion that they cut. They won't cut while Bidenomics runs historic spending. I do expect a low for VIX on Friday and SPX testing 5000.” 25 points short of 5000 BUT VIX did not close on the lows of the week. That is most vexing. I was close but totally off on VIX trading at the lows. The rally was just too fierce and I think there was some Middle East uncertainty chucked in there for the weekend.  It will slowly sink into the minds of traders that the Fed cannot and will not cut anytime soon while both parties in Washington DC engage in an orgy of spending. I liken this to the Dotcom boom. Nobody cared in 1999 that $0 revenue companies were worth $10 billion until everyone cared. Then a massive repricing after an 80% gain in the Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ) in one year.. The difference there was the risk was equity risk. No leverage debt bets which is what we had in 2008.  That does not mean stocks cannot scream for a long time. That is what the current VIX/SPX setup tells me. SPX is at an all time high. A healthy rally would have VIX at recent lows. That is not the case below. [fstp] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [fstp] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. SPX it all time highs again. But note none of the SIGMA vols, that is the average volatility per term, closed at one month. That is usually a signal SPX will not hold the current rally as traders start to pay up for options outside of the expected move. 10-day realized vol is 12.64% after back to back 24% realized volatility moves Thursday and Friday. That also keeps VIX and shorter term IVs elevated. The reality is this is still a lower volatility rally in nature, steady and grinding higher with very light pullbacks. That is the main trend I cannot ignore. [fstp] SPX realized volatility snap on Feb 02, 2024 VIX cash is higher and Monday will tell the volatility tale if the bid for VIX was just weekend risk due to the Mideast or real threat of a market pullback. Higher VIX is higher VIX so I always respect the move higher until it stops. Note the outlier on the VIX Oct future. That is the market telling us the election will be, quite literally, crazy and a major vol event. Closing VIX curve, Feb 02 2024 [fstp] VIX curve, Jan 26, 2024 Implied volatility is closer to the 10 day realized now but still pricey. It is clear we have a week of rising volatility and the reason is the “right side” of the volatility curve, above the at-the-money, is dragging VIX higher. Over the last 30 days VIX has plunged to 12.5 and all stocks have done is rally. [fstp] VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles My favorite trading tip: Journal! If you want to get better write down your thoughts and see how right you are.  Vol Man Weekly Newsletter is my wrapup from the prior week to get ready for the next week. I dip back to look at it during the week to see what has moved outside of my expectations.  The bullish expectation is too strong and stocks are too close to 5000 to not see it at least once. The big issues will be whether the bid for VIX was Mideast action or not. Right now I have to go with a drop in VIX overall with VIX9D only 13.04%. I am leaning short VIX in [Weekly Profits Cycles.](  [Weekly Profit Cycles is opening for a semi-annual subscription if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively.]( - Vol Man  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, header, fvix] Weekly Watchlist: Time For This Automaker To Breakout? Hey Traders! In today's video we'll cover: - Why The VIX Continues To Be Nervous About Markets - I Explain What Call Chasing Is - My Weekly Watchlist Plus A Few Bonus Picks [yt]( [Watch the video here!]( - Mark  [fpip] SPX Hit My Target, Where to Now? Hi Shoppers, On Thursday night, went out Friday morning, I called the S&P 500 Index (Ticker: SPX) to trade $4980. The high on Friday was $4975.29, less than five bucks away, that’s .001%. So where do we go from here? There is an interesting Relative Strength Index or RSI pattern happening. Let me show you. The Relative Strength Index measures a stock’s momentum trading higher or lower. When the RSI is above 70, the stock is considered overbought, RSI below 30 the stock is oversold. RSI works best when a stock has been trading in a range rather than a trend. I would not recommend buying and selling solely off the RSI indicator as stock can remain overbought and oversold for great lengths of time. There is a signal created when the RSI does not reflect a new high/low as the stock is making a new high/low. This is an RSI Divergence and I see it happening in SPX:  [pip]( As the SPX has ticked higher, the relative strength index has made lower highs. This is a bearish indication. This combined with my target resistance and the psychological number of $5000 could be signs of a pullback. [Go here and I will tell you how I am going to play it.]( - Licia   [glossary, logo] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is:  Butterfly spread - A call or put spread trade where the trader is long 1 option, short 2 options, and long 1 option. The short options are equidistant and between each long option leg. The trade is generally opened for a net debit. [ftsp] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. Click the button below to schedule a call with our concierge Customer Care Team to find your best fit today. DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. 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