4800, 4900, 5000 SPX, new territory is a reality

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] Chicago steaks. Chicago Cubs. Chicago profits. Option Pit Summit 2024 is coming and it's the only place you'll be able to trade live and IN-PERSON with the Option Pit Team this year. Make money, meet fellow traders and work directly with our team. [Plus save $500 with introductory pricing when you click here.]( [volman, vol man, vol,] 4800, 4900, 5000 SPX, new territory is a reality Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… Last Week:  ‘My problem is closing highs in SPX without closing 30 day lows in VIX which is a rough trend for WPC. I said that last week and I will say it this week. SPX did fall 2% from the highs quickly last week only to recover so that is a 200 point range for the week BUT BARELY A RIPPLE IN WEEKLY REALIZED VOL. Even with the lower realized volatility in SPX, intraday SPX drops and recovers. There is enough Big Tech coming up this week to keep SPX marching higher with VIX holding these levels on good earnings. Most of the Mag 7 rolls the following week with the Fed soon after which is when VIX might actually make year lows. I don't see that this week as the SPX moves higher. SPX higher with VIX flat to higher this week.” I was close.  SPX was higher, VIX was lower by .04. But.. VIX held a bid all week and most short term IV were higher awaiting FOMC. To say this is the most calendar laden, news event weeks of the New Year would be an understatement. Most of the Big Tech earnings, see below, and FOMC rate news will be out. Upside skew in SPX is in the upper 95% of the range. Traders are pricing a blowout to 5000 in my opinion. I have covered this already in the Pitstop on Friday. [stp] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [stp] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. SPX held all time highs again. Note the Apr Sigma, green line is at a one month low. Traders are starting to take the whole term structures down looking for less volatility long term. Feb and Mar picked up a bid waiting for a larger short term move. So the market can price short and long term moves differently. 10-day realized vol is 8.5% or roughly 24 points per day for SPX close to close. Stocks are still trading in an extended low realized volatility period. That is usually bullish SPX a volia, 4900 SPX this past week. [stp] VIX cash is .04 lower as the USGOV shutdown was good for 1pt in VIX. I see the curve as compressed to the VIX cash so short term volatility is higher relative. That again points to FOMC. [stp] Closing VIX curve, Jan 19 2024 [stp] VIX curve, Jan 26, 2024 Implied volatility is still running at a large premium to the close to close move. [stp] VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles VIX dove early in the week only to rebid as short term IV started placing bets around FOMC. Traders keep the IV at a just increasing rate to hold the option premium levels from getting too low. Upside call buying is keeping implied volatility (IV) bid. The earnings are the key to 5000 SPX, but I think the bigger upside moves are from the Fed not raising as opposed to the crazy notion that they cut. They won't cut while Bidenomics runs historic spending. I do expect a low for VIX on Friday and SPX testing 5000. [stp]  [Weekly Profit Cycles is open to new members if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively.]( - AG  [logo, pit profits] - Delta Strike - closed AZN Feb09 67 puts for 82% gain - Delta Strike - closed IBM Jan19 167.50 calls for 229% gain - Delta Strike - closed ICLN Feb16 14 puts 120% - Delta Strike - closed NXE Feb16 8 calls 104% - Delta Strike - closed DAL Nov17 33/38 call verticals +289% Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, header, fvix] Game plan for this coming week Hey Trader's Edge! In today's video we'll cover: - FOMC This Week - Key Levels In The VIX and SPX - Important Earnings That Are Coming Next Week [fvix]( [Click Here to Watch The Video!]( - Mark  [fpip] Bitcoin Please Hi Shoppers, Let’s take a look at Bitcoin (Ticker: BTCUSD). It looks ready to bounce further from here: [fpip] It had a nice selloff once the ETFs were approved and it traded right down to my red median line on the pitchfork which is a significant level of support. BTCUSD has bounced off that support and has traded through and closed above the next level of resistance at $40,320. Friday’s action created a nice bullish candle, tall and green. Now it seems to be taking a break before it makes that next leg higher to $44,000. [Read on and I will show you how I will be playing this bounce.]( - Licia   [glossary, logo] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is: Flag pattern - A continuation price pattern in the shape of a parallelogram that goes against the prevailing trend. Used by some traders as buy (bull flags) or sell (bear flags) signals. [ftsp] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. Click the button below to schedule a call with our concierge Customer Care Team to find your best fit today. DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The materials presented from Option Pit LLC are for your informational and educational purposes only. Neither Option Pit LLC nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational and educational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: OPTION PIT LLC IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER. Option Pit LLC is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented materials. Specific trading ideas or strategies discussed in the presentations or materials are entirely illustrative and do not constitute the solicitation of a transaction (or transactions) or a recommendation to execute a particular transaction or implement a particular trading strategy. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [Update your preferences]( This email was sent by support@optionpit.com. 1-888-872-3301 [Option Pit]( | 190 S LaSalle Suite 3000 Chicago, IL 60603 | [Privacy Policy](