4800 is the new hard top BUT ONLY FOR A LITTLE WHILE!

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] There's only one place to win six months Option Pit Service AND get acess to 60 of the top trading experts in the world Jan. 15-20. It's the Wealth 365 Summit and it starts this Monday. [Register now and enter to win FREE Option Pit Service here!]( [volman, vol man, vol,] 4800 is the new hard top BUT ONLY FOR A LITTLE WHILE! Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… Last Week: “If I go with the straight VIX signal, SPX is lower next week. The larger rally on rate cut hopes is DOA as there is no chance the Fed cuts in March. I totally disagree with the 60% who think there is a March cut. I think without direction, some Big Tech gets soft for a bit next week before the rest of the market takes off. Jobs are still good for Main Street and that is the economy. SPX trades lower next week, maybe close to 4600 before resuming the march back up. VIX still closes in the 12s by the end of the week but could see higher in the short term.” My market prediction was not too bad, but we never saw close to 4600 and did spend the week marching up with 12.73 VIX close. Some weakness on the CPI number coming in hot but that got the bond bulls excited Thursday to push stock back to 4800 by Friday. Softer PPI numbers seemed to help too. My best trades were buying strangles in[OP Mentoring and Easy Trade Button and a quick Riff for the Trading Desk](. I am still holding some calls in SPDR S&P 500 Trust (Ticker: SPY) and Russell 2000 Trust (Ticker: IWM) looking for a real breakout above 4800 that did not materialize on Friday.  I did have very easy wins but kept some low dollar risk calls open for a potential bigger win after closing most of the strangle puts Thursday. Bank earnings were just ok, but nothing to write home about. Big Tech is coming out toward the end of the month and all of those stocks are near all time highs save Apple inc (Ticker: AAPL). This will be a real test for Big Tech Multiples that are in the 30s and higher. For now, earnings were not good enough Friday to power more stocks higher. [fstp] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [fstp]SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. SPX did not close at the high of the week but most volatility closed at the lows of the week, even with the 3 day weekend taken into account. SPX has a 110 point range Thursday so it was tough to see any real drop in VIX on Friday. VIX closed up fractionally mostly on Weekend Risk from the Middle East strike. Intraday SPX did hit 4800 but it did not close above it. I think that is a key mental level to hold. Intraday action is keeping VIX from new lows, or at least the 30 day low which is just under 12.  10-day realized vol is 9.8% or roughly 24 points per day for SPX close to close. The one thing settled from last week is that 4600 is way in the rearview mirror and traders held 4700 easily. The rate hike scenario, or lack of rate hikes, is now the floor holding stocks up. [fstp] VIX cash is .65 lower than last week. Lower VIX is lower VIX so in general, that is bullish in my view. The VIX curve is in a normal contango which in general is bearish VIX in the short term. [fstp] VIX curve, Jan 05 2024[fstp] Closing VIX curve, Jan 12, 2024 “SPX is priced for 4600 or 4800 in the next month.” which was my observation last week and we ticked 4800. New straddle is just covering 4700 on the downside so the big downside is not priced into option right. Paper is not buying that move. [fstp]VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles My problem is closing highs in SPX without closing 30 day lows in VIX. That is likely geopolitical risk which is a wildcard but the market is only pricing volatility in the 12 handle for VIX.  it cannot be that big of a worry. Decent earnings will propel stocks higher and hold 4800 this week. Very good earnings get us to the low 12s for VIX. I held some upside SPY and IWM calls, so you know where I think we will go next week.  You might be wondering why I post the same charts every week. I like to see if VIX and SPX are holding their normal negative correlation or not. Right now they are and that is the basis of [Weekly Profit Cycles](. Let’s Go! - Vol Man  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, header, fvix] 3 Areas I’m Watching Closely In today's video, we'll cover: - 3 Areas I Am Watching Closely - Set people up for January expiration - What move IWM is about to make - This weeks levels for the SPX [[yt]Click here to watch the video!]( - Mark  [fpip] How Low Can They Go? Hi Shoppers, On [Wednesday (written Tuesday night)]( I told you about the High Wave Candles I was seeing in Bitcoin (TIcker: BTCUSD) that signify mass confusion. Well those candles panned out as BTCUSD had a massive price swing of $7658, trading a high of $49102 down to $41444! There has also been a huge selloff, in those two days, in all the Bitcoin related stocks. My favorites to watch in this group are Coinbase Global (Ticker: COIN), RIOT Platforms (Ticker: RIOT), Marathon Digital Holdings (Ticker: MARA), and ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (TIcker: BITO). BTCUSD traded down 15% from the initial spike high on Thursday to its lows on Friday. Every one of these stocks had an even more massive selloff in those two days. Check out these ugly, I mean ugly, charts.[fpip]( On Friday COIN closed just below its 50 day moving average trading down 19%. Below here the next support level comes in at $128 and then $113. MARA got slammed the worse trading down 35%: [fpip]( Support comes in at $17.30 and then $13. RIOT traded down 31% in those two days: [fpip]  Support is just below here at $11 and then down at $9.95. BITO which is the world’s first and largest Bitcoin ETF invests in Bitcoin futures, fared the best selling off 13%: [fpip](Support here comes in at $20.50 and then $19.20. Of course you need to keep a close eye on Bitcoin (TIcker: BTCUSD) when you are trading these stocks. [Go here for a look at the BTCUSD chart and a possible way to play this action.]( - Licia   [glossary, logo] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is: All or nothing (AON) - This refers to an option order that needs to fill in its entirety or not at all. Also refers to some trades that will either make a trade a lot of money or leave them with nothing. See YOLO. [ftsp] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. Click the button below to schedule a call with our concierge Customer Care Team to find your best fit today. 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