4700 is sticky as 100 SPX points from all-time highs

Daily Pit Stop [FSTP] This week we'll be hosting a speaker series about the most important thing you should be looking for when trading options – option flow. [Register now to secure your spot!]( 4700 is sticky as 100 SPX points from all-time highs  Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with last week’s forecast… Last Week: “4600 new floor, beware the Jesse Livermore Rule” “I don't think 11 VIX is possible until Friday. That will crush vol products and VIX futures and be very good for puts in those products. The Dec 12-13 Fed meeting will present a gamma buying opportunity once again as it has every cycle in 2023 and 2022. If the Fed ain’t raising most of the bad sentiment from 2022 will be forgotten and people will notice they don't own any stocks so the run will be up not down. [Weekly Profit Cycles]( is back to Option Pit and I did add SPY calls and reduced VIX puts for the Fed Meeting.” The post-week analysis is nearly the same as last week.  Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ) flies to an all time high and the Russell 2000 (Ticker: IWM) has rallied 20 points in 3 weeks. The Jesse Livermore rule, a break above a significant level held this week but momentum could not hold 4700. The JL rule still works as SPX could not stay above 4700. The massive break up was the gamma buying opportunity I spoke of and hit several wins across products setting up for it. Folks in the Pro Chat liked it. [fvol] [fvol] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [fvol] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. Sigmas are at the bottom of the range. Historically this is bullish SPX. VIX futures caught a slight bid into the weekend, which could be a short covering effect after weeks of VIX future price destruction. That is the only curiosity on the week from a VIX point of view.  [Weekly Profits Cycles]( would be a home run city if that curiosity becomes a short term selloff.  10-day realized vol is 8.85% or roughly 23 points per day for SPX close to close. The massive rally on the FOMC dovish report kept VIX from cratering to 11. SPX 30 Day realized vol is 10% which is at year lows. [fvol] VIX dropped again from a lower number last week with the VIX futures down more than that in the short term contracts which is consistent with VIX decay and the exact assumption I built [Weekly Profits Cycles](. VIX futures slowly decay every week, all things being equal. [fvol] VIX curve, Dec 15 2023 [fvol] Closing VIX curve, Dec 08 2023 Normal contango is still holding. The bigger question is if 4700 is support or resistance. The FOMC catalyst is over so not sure what the next catalyst is. Earnings are due in January and Costco Inc (Ticker: COST) blow out upside bodes well for retail and bullish spirits. [fvol] VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles A low weekly close in VIX is still low. Besides some short term pops, VIX sitting at lows and the run to Christmas Holiday will not help it. I expect a quiet week and lows for VIX on the year, possibly an 11 settle for Wednesday. Higher SPX, likely sniffy 4750. The tailwind from the Fed looking to be done raising rates for the short term is still the dominant force in stocks. [WPC]( has posted 26 of 30 trade wins at Money Map Press. I hope to do the same thing back at Option Pit. - AG  [Pit Profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [frep] OXY is not just for Warren Buffett  Our Pit Report trades have been going well. [ Check out my trade update list here.]( I cannot rest on my laurels and it has taken a little bit of management except for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (Ticker: SPDR) which flew to the moon this past week. Occidental Petroleum Corp (Ticker: OXY) has been more like the lunar module crashing to the surface. [frep] The recent big moves up from year lows are certainly in keeping with the market. The question is does the implied volatility price this correctly? [Enquiring Minds Want to Know!]( - AG  [power income, FPRI] Mountain of Cash Fuels FOMO  Recently, I wrote about how the [Fed "PUT" is Back](. Well, Powell has now confirmed that shift during his press conference on Wednesday … During the FOMC press conference on Wednesday, Powell was asked if the Fed would wait until inflation came down to 2% before cutting interest rates … Powell's response was (paraphrasing) : we would want to avoid the risk of CPI going below 2% so would begin cutting rates before it gets there … This fueled a powerful move higher in risk assets (stocks, bonds and commodities) and ultimately means we will see much higher inflation in the years ahead … However, for now it fuels a cash bubble that may ultimately push “risk assets” much higher in the near term. [Click through to see what this means for markets in the weeks ahead.]( - Bill  [logo, fpip, Profits In Pumps] Double Tops or Spinning Tops? We have had quite the rally and most are saying the Santa Rally hasn’t kicked in yet. We are at a double top in the S&P 500 Mini Futures (Ticker: ES), the Invesco QQQ Trust (Ticker: QQQ) and Apple (TIcker: AAPL). The ES previous high was back in Dec2021: [fpip] The QQQ was Nov2021: [fpip] AAPL is much more recent occurring in July of this year: [fpip] [Let’s take a closer look at these charts to determine if we are making double tops or is something else going on.]( - Licia  [Glossary] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is:  Ask price - The price of an option at which the liquidity provider is willing to sell. All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. 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