VIX rings in lows of the year

[FSTP](   [bf2023]( Hey OP Crew,  AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with last week’s forecast…  Last Week:  Right now for VIX to drop, realized vol for the week has to be sub-10%. With the holiday and half week I expect VIX to mostly finish where it closed Friday. A low vol tickle to 4550 SPX will not surprise with a 13.25 low in VIX. Enjoy your Thanksgiving.  As I write this 1 hour or so before the close on Friday, SPX is 4555 and VIX is just under 13% to 12.83%. I was expecting a bit of a bump on the Mideast Cease Fire but it appears the market has discounted that already.  Nvidia Corp (Ticker: NVDA) did not provide the big jump so 4600 SPX will have to wait to next week.. [fstop] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [fstop] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days.  Sigmas are sub-0 so IV has adjusted down for the near 4 day weekend. This should set up more calendar trade this week in SPX.  10-day realized vol is 12.75% is unchanged but the quiet week will help compress vols that is already evident in the Sigma Term IV. [fstop] VIX dropped a full point and IVs everywhere are lower. This will set up interesting low VIX strategies for me in the[Easy Trade Button](, [OP Mentoring]( and [Trading Desk.]( [fstop] VIX curve, Nov 17 2023 [fstop] Closing VIX curve, Nov 24, 2023 Normal contango has set in so it will take really adverse news to upset the apple cart. [fstop] VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles  A long Vol Trader does not like to see this chart. A grinding beeline to 12 VIX. The vol futures still move so the opportunity is in VIX future decay, not so much in VIX cash dropping. I expect a crawl to 4600 SPX as the seasonal Santa rally kicks in.  Also look this week for my Weekly Profits Cycles coming back to Option Pit. It has a phenomenal track record of consistent trading technique and closing. Learn to trade non-correlated positions and not worry about where the market is going. If you want to understand Proximity in Washington, check out [Frank’s excellent presentation on future companies and how DC wants to use them.](  Let’s Go!  [Pit Profits]  Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at 1-888-872-3301 Monday-Friday from 9 a.m.-5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com).  Pit Report: Melco Resorts vols are dirt cheap  Ticker of the week: MLCO  Each week, I’ll give an overview of a stock and Licia Leslie will follow that up with a chart analysis the next day. Bill Griffo will chime in with macro analysis and Andrew Giovinazzi will then finish out the week with a volatility breakdown.  (Ticker: MLCO) Melco is the storied property in Macau of the legendary gamer Stanley Ho. That was when gaming meant you ran casinos not sat at home on a laptop. Anyway the biggest customer base for MLCO is China. And COVID, property busts and general economic malaise has hurt gaming customers' pocket books. Post-COVID I thought MLCO would jump out of the blocks but most equities connected with China have done poorly lately.  The graph below is clear on that with MLCO running at lows of the year.  [fstop] MLCO 1 Year chart with 1 day candles  You are here for a vol analysis and vol you will get.  [Vol levels are kind of surprising with MLCO this low.]( - AG  Profits in Pumps: How about a little lesson on this fine Sunday?  As you know I like to use the Japanese candlesticks to detect a change in a stock's trend.  One of the most useful candles that does this is the doji.  The doji can be found at the top of an uptrend or the bottom of a downtrend.  It is literally a session where the bulls and bears are battling it out.  During the session, which can be daily, weekly or five minutes, neither side wins causing the opening and closing prices to be almost the same.  The doji candle looks like this:[fstop]The fact that neither side was able to take over causes uncertainty in the next direction which leads to covering of positions and new buyers/sellers entering the market.  When you see this formation after a nice rally or a big selloff, wait for the confirmation which is a move in the direction you are looking for in the next session.  [See a doji in action.](  P.S. It isn’t too late to take advantage of our [Black Friday Sale.](  Thanks for Reading … See You Next Tuesday, - Licia  OPTION PIT GLOSSARY [Glossary] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The [Option Pit Glossary]( is here to help. Today’s phrase is: Double-top - A technical chart pattern where a stock makes a high, retraces for a period of time, and makes another high in the same area.  [Questions] You can [Update your preferences]( This email was sent by [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com). 1-888-872-3301 [Option Pit]( | 190 S LaSalle Suite 3000 Chicago, IL 60603 | [Privacy Policy]( [Stop receiving OptiPub emails](