🚗VIX Does Hold a 6 Month High

[] [ Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with last week’s forecast… Last Week: VIX should see higher levels next week, checking into Zone 4 or above 24. There is no end in sight for any of the headline news items plaguing stocks so the path of least resistance is down SPX, up VIX. I will say the lack of close to close vol means the market is not “actively” selling off so any of the above news items improving should halt the VIX advance. No Zone 4 this week. I should have followed my own advice and kept my king's ransom worth of SPY put spreads. Even with SPX down to 4100 by Friday’s close the sentiment was terrible. Traders were waiting for the fallout from Gaza to see if things got any worse. Still VIX made a higher level early in the week but spent most of the week seesawing back to a 21.27 close. From what I can tell no headline news improved except corporate earnings were pretty good. A steady selloff with VIX barely moving up is a tough case because the market is just sliding away with no support. Jpow made that clear in his remarks. The bond market is doing his job pushing rates higher. SPX erased Oct gains and most of the SPX AI summer rally. Some of the big tech stocks are higher but SPX is at lows not seen since May. Corporate earnings were ok so far so there should be a silver lining there somewhere. [ SPX daily price action over the last 30 days [ SPX sigma levels over the last 30 days. Sigmas closed near highs of the week as the invasion worries in Gaza kept vol up. SPX close down .48% with VIX up on the day going into the weekend. That is all geopolitical risk. 10-day realized vol is 13.02% which is down on the week. The biggest issue is stocks don’t freefall, they just grind lower. That could be a sticky bear market for the short term. [ VIX finished lower on the week. So if I was looking for a sign, it is more of the same but just less so. The curve from last week is almost identical so traders are not seeing a change of condition as of Friday the 27th. [ VIX curve, Oct 20 2023 [ Closing VIX curve, Oct 27, 2023 The flatter front is usually a symptom of a more uncertain VIX direction. This is the second week of it. SPX is still running on a close to close basis relatively low realized vol wise. [ VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles I am convinced the Friday action was geopolitics, not market fundamentals. This Gaza issue is getting more complex as the USA jumped into the fray. On the flip side, SPX is getting into oversold territory with decent corporate earnings. Interest rates seem to have stabilized this week, albeit at a lower level, so that should help stocks. If, hopefully, the Middle East situation does not get worse, we should see a modest rally in SPX this week with VIX below 19. If the Middle East gets worse, except the same VIX curve we saw on the close Friday. Let’s Go! [/campaigns/org775804783/sitesapi/files/images/774695510/ag (2).png] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. Click the button below to schedule a call with our concierge Customer Care Team to find your best fit today. [1).png]( DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The materials presented from Option Pit LLC are for your informational and educational purposes only. Neither Option Pit LLC nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational and educational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: OPTION PIT LLC IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER. Option Pit LLC is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented materials. Specific trading ideas or strategies discussed in the presentations or materials are entirely illustrative and do not constitute the solicitation of a transaction (or transactions) or a recommendation to execute a particular transaction or implement a particular trading strategy. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [Unsubscribe]( or [Update your preferences]( This email was sent by support@optionpit.com. 1-888-872-3301 [Option Pit]( | 190 S LaSalle Suite 3000 Chicago, IL 60603 | [Privacy Policy](