Plays we can make off the verdict

Trader's Edge [logo, fvix, header,] May 31, 2024 On Thursday afternoon, after the market closed Donald J Trump was found guilty on all 34 charges in the case brought by the state of New York. While he is unlikely going to jail…he will get bail on appeal I would imagine,  frankly, long term, this verdict has zero effect on the stock market.  Yes, opening on Friday, we COULD see the market sell off some.  The prosecution of a former president, currently running for his job back, is going to cause some political turbulence.  But overall, it will have little to no effect on the market long term.  Take a look…in the last 40 years…it does not matter who is in office...stocks go up. That said…near term there could be some small fireworks…I do not think the VIX will move too much (in fact I have a bet with Andrew on how much it will move, I took the under).  Truthfully I do not think this has any outcome on the election and thus the market. However, there will be an effect on the stock market ... .notably…one stock….DJT…truth social. DJT is worth about 9 billion dollars, and basically all of that is tied to the brand that is Trump….let's talk about this stock in particular. I am going to skip the financial metrics…because they are abysmal…this company is literally banking on Trump winning the white house. Going into the verdict here is what the straddle for Friday May 31st looked like: [ded] The 52 straddle was pricing in about 3 bucks….the stock after hours is down about 3.18. I think they were expecting the verdict NEXT week…because that straddle was far more expensive: [ded] Leading into the verice the market was looking for like 8 bucks a week from Friday. Either way…after hours DJT is down about 3 dollars….less than both straddles were really pricing in. So what do you do with this info? I tell people repeatedly if you want to make money trading….leave politics at the door. I am looking to make money….not political statements. My take…people are going to want to hear what the man has to say ... .they are going to want to follow what Mr. Trump is saying. The selling is a knee jerk reaction with any luck they will crush the stock on Friday…that will probably be a trading opportunity from the long side ... .not I said trading and not investing.  I would never buy this stock for my children based on the current conditions…but will I go long for a couple of weeks…. Heck Yeah. I hope they crush this thing so I can play off algo’s over reaction. I'll be looking at calls in Delta Strike and strangles in Trading Desk ….you should join one of these because there is going to be A LOT of money to make off this verdict. [sig, mark sig, signature] --------------------------------------------------------------- Don't miss when our traders go live! 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