VIX will move in two shakes of lamb’s tail

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] April 7, 2024 [volman, vol man, vol,] VIX will move in two shakes of lamb’s tail Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… I am getting cryptic this week and who doesn't love Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction. [fstp] [If some of my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, our Glossary is here.]( Last Week:  “I expect a moving higher week, maybe 1-2% or more on a steady gain in SPX.  Big Tech is stuck waiting for earnings. Most China news is poor, which is bad for Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) until they can get in the swing in India. I think 2nd Quarter Main Street will play, so lots of reasons to be bullish. AI is always the extra kick in the pants higher. Without a holiday, VIX should be 12.5 or less. I did buy SPY call spreads to adjust my Weekly Profit Cycles trade. I own a lot of SPY put spreads/VIX puts, which means we are rallying big. That is the crusty old trader in me.” Well let’s see how I did?  To be honest not so good this week. VIX closed 16 so way off and the rally was short lived as Fed Gov Kashkari, inflation and Blinken on Ukraine wrecked things. Things were on track like crazy until the knuckleheads in the Fed could not agree on policy in their public statements. The bright spot was jobs as the post pandemic growth keeps happening. Rate cuts in June are a pipe dream although SPX flirted with all time highs this week. AI and chips had a rare stumble as none of the big chip makers are near highs. Only oil and gold/silver are running which is basically saying inflation is moving higher. The Ukraine thing joining NATO was the non sequitur that got VIX parabolic. The biggest jump in VIX in 30 days was only peripherally connected to real market fundamentals. Geopolitical risk moves VIX much more than an inflation report. The dreaded “weekend risk” from 2022 is back in play. [fstp] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days SPX kissed the highs of the week before dropping back to lows only seen since…. Two weeks ago. This market takes any downdraft and spits it out like some bad tobacco. SPX finished the week down but only small considering none of the news was good except for NFP. [fstp] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. Sigma Vols closed near highs of the week for the good reason that no one wanted to sell the volatility into the weekend. After the rally VIX should have been 15 that it was moving to midday. All the SIGMA stayed frothy so traders are bracing for a larger move in SPX. Remember the 30 day realized vol is 5 points below VIX. That is some juicy juice. The 10-day realized vol is not getting off the mat at 9.08. Thursday's move was almost 2% from the highs but on the day closed down 1.2%. That selloff got swallowed so no down move sticks. Low daily ranges are bullish historically and I see nothing to change that. [fstp] SPX realized volatility snap on Mar 28 2024 VIX ZONE 1 9-13 VIX ZONE 2 13.01 TO 17.99 VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 VIX ZONE 4 24< The front end of the curve is dead flat. That means all short term SPX IV’s are running hot and traders are expecting big swings in VIX coming up. VIX closing up 3 points on a Friday is nuts for this year so get ready for some fireworks next week. I expect VIX to move 2 points minimum up or down. [fstp] Closing VIX curve, Mar 28, 2024 Basic Vol 101 on our [Option Pit YouTube channel](. [fstp] VIX closing at or near highs is something for concern. My view is if the geopolitical stuff dies, VIX dies with it. The WH will walk back Ukraine talk this weekend since that is what they normally do after saying stupid stuff. CPI number is the big day on the 10th which i expect to be 100 points market moving for SPX. I am leaning long SPX in Weekly Profit Cycles and overall short VIX.  I have a solid hedge in SPY put spreads but i don’t think they will pay. Expect sideways movement to Wednesday, with VIX holding above 15 and then get smoked post CPI. If the Ukraine gets jiggy, SPX down 100 and VIX over 20 in two shakes of a lamb's tail.  [Weekly Profit Cycles]( is opening for a quarterly subscription if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively. The last 11 Opens in WPC have been nice wins so getting paid to own SPY puts in an up market is something anyone can learn to do, Let’s Go - VOL MAN  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, fvix, header,] CPI and PPI This Week Hey Traders, In Today's Video, We'll Cover: - Major Economics reports - What to expect this coming week - My 5 Stock Watchlist - What Gold skyrocketing usually means [yt] [Click here to watch the video now!]( - Mark  [frep] Ticker of the week! Hey Traders, NVDA…have you heard of it?  I kid of course, NVDA is the stock of 2024 so far after having a pretty darn good 2023. Even stocks associated with NVDA are getting a boost, look at SMCI. Recently NVDA made reference to this weeks stock, and is having their team keynote at one of their conferences… The stock has gone straight up…is it worth jumping in or is this move worth fading… [Let's break it down….]( - Mark  [fpip] Join Before This Winning Trade Hi Shoppers, Does anyone know WTH is going on with the market? Up $45 … down $65 … reverse for $110 point move … up $57. Which way are we going? We have economic news, Fed speakers (one after another), geo political headlines, gold and commodities making all time highs, bonds trading lower (rates higher). Things are kinda sketch right now. Well don’t you fear because Option Pit has your back. That’s right. We have a trade for you that we can honestly say will be a guaranteed 100% winner. Yes, you read that correctly. You see there is a VIX ETF named UVXY and it is reverse splitting again, for the twelfth time since 2011. The nature of this thing is to decay. You know Mark Sebastian and Andrew Giovinazzi are volatility experts. They have witnessed and made money on this strategy each time. The last trade made 100% in four months. They will be making this trade during a live session on Tuesday April 9th. [You can get in on this by becoming a 0DTE member here at Option Pit.]( So not only do you get that fantastic UVXY trade but you will also receive, almost daily, Zero Days to Expiration trades in SPX and XSP. It’s a lot of fun. Come and join us! [Once you do that, I will tell you where this market is going.]( - Licia Don't miss when our traders go live! Get an alert everytime we open the live rooms to all of our readers for free by selecting the calendar you use below. 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