Gold is breaking out

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] April 1, 2024 [volman, vol man, vol,] SPX makes all time highs, VIX won’t break Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… [If some of my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, our Glossary is here.]( Last Week: ‘I expect a quiet week. 4 day trading with VIX likely closing low 12s. I think selloffs are buying opportunities unless VIX jumps above 14.5. If SPX closes 50 points away from Friday’s close by Holy Thursday that will be a surprise. SPX is making new highs with both AAPL and Tesla inc (Ticker: TSLA) trading closer to lows of 2024. Still feels pretty bullish SPX.” Well let’s see how I did?  50 point move net all week thanks to a 1 day rally and VIX closed 13.01. SPX closed at all time highs. Not perfect but not bad for telling the future. Some inflation numbers that might give more clues into rates staying the same. My guess is they are staying the same until Uncle Sam stops borrowing. I was light on positions this week since my power was out for 4 days. I finally added a position in WPC only to have SPY launch on Wednesday afternoon. It will take all cycle for the VIX puts to pay when SPY can still go into launch mode instantly. Most of Big Tech is off highs so that means the other ¾ of the market cap of stocks are finally rallying. Oil, banks, small caps and Main Street are starting to think there is no recession. I ask how can there be a recession with $3 trillion of extra spending by Uncle Sam? Not happening before November so plenty of reasons to stay bullish. [ded] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days SPX was up for the week at all time highs. However VIX declined by .04. Any drop in VIX was small. [ded]SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. Sigma Vols closed just lower on the week with Apr out of the VIX cycle now. Start looking to the end of Apr/beginning of May for VIX. No Fed rate announcements there. The 10-day realized vol is maddeningly low at 8.83 with 30-day 10.77. VIX trading 13 is ready for a drop at this point. But it won’t. [ded]SPX realized volatility snap on Mar 28 2024  The reason is the Liquidity Providers fear the big rally and won’t let vol fall because more traders keep buying calls. 30 day SPX 5300 calls were up vol on the day. Zone 1 is like Kryptonite. VIX ZONE 1 9-13 VIX ZONE 2 13.01 TO 17.99 VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 VIX ZONE 4 24< The front end of the curve is back into a normal contango. Unless something news worthy moves stocks, VIX is on a slow burn. VIX up SPX up resumed that trend into Thursday’s close. [ded] Closing VIX curve, Mar 28, 2024 [ded] Closing VIX cash and curve, Mar 22, 2024 Basic Vol 101 on our [Option Pit YouTube channel](. [ded]VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles I expect a moving higher week, maybe 1-2% or more on a steady gain in SPX.  Big Tech is stuck waiting for earnings. Most China news is poor, which is bad for Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) until they can get in the swing in India. I think 2nd Quarter Main Street will play, so lots of reasons to be bullish. AI is always the extra kick in the pants higher. Without a holiday, VIX should be 12.5 or less. I did buy SPY call spreads to adjust my Weekly Profit Cycles trade. I own a lot of SPY put spreads/VIX puts, which means we are rallying big. That is the crusty old trader in me. - Vol Man  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, fvix, header,] Big News In Volatility Hey Traders, In Today's Video, We'll Cover: - Levels in the major indexes - What I'm seeing in Volatility - Major Economic Reports [yt]( [Click here to watch the video!]( - Mark  [ag views, logo, header] Gold is breaking out Stocks are within a whisker of all time highs and so is gold. Traders are buying up gold, for what reason I do not know, buying the options up too. SPDR Gold Trust (Ticker: GLD) is running with implied volatility trading close to 1 year highs. That is normally a recipe for sharp moves in the price of GLD. I remember Bill Griffo said, Saudi Arabia was looking at dollar alternative payments for oil and that was bullish gold. Both oil and gold are up lately. He seems very right. [ded] 1 year GLD Chart with 30 and 60 day IV on the bottom chart It does not look like it wants to stop. - AG  [fpri] Powell’s Incredible Message From Last Week Hey Income Hunters, Powell’s message this week that he stands ready to support the job market even if inflation lingers was eye opening to say the least. [Fed’s Powell Ready to Support Job Market Even if Inflation Lingers – Bloomberg]( The market response confirms the shift in narrative that monetary policy is highly inflationary … Gold, Bitcoin and the industrial sector continue to outperform bonds.   [ded] This trend is powerful and long lasting … [Click through to see recent data that says continue to load up on gold, bitcoin and the industrial sector of the US equity market vs bonds.Â]( - Bill  [fpip] The Perfect Picture Hi Shoppers, Did you know that since crypto currencies trade 24/7 they provide the perfect picture of market sentiment. What does that mean? I am talking about technical analysis or chart reading. The daily Japanese candlesticks track the fear and greed present in the marketplace. The red and green real bodies of all those candles tell the story.[pip]( You can learn how to read them, spot the patterns and apply it to the crypto currency charts. You will be ahead of the game with the knowledge of the market’s next move. A very important tool as you begin trading those Bitcoin and Ethereum futures and options with us here at Option Pit. Do not get left behind. This is just the beginning. It is a new era of trading bringing massive opportunities. [You need to join us now.]( [Continue here and I will show you what the chart is telling us in Ethereum (Ticker: ETHUSD).]( - Licia  [fprm] Defense Gets a Boost Hey Influence Traders, In a sneaky weekend move, Congress passed a $1.2T bipartisan spending deal. The President wasted no time signing it into law. I’m sure that everyone involved read all 1200 pages. It moved so quickly that the Senate had no time to propose changes to the House-passed bill. According to Biden, “The bipartisan funding bill I just signed keeps the government open, invests in the American people, and strengthens our economy and national security.” He added that “This agreement represents a compromise, which means neither side got everything it wanted.” There might be some folks who are disappointed, buy the defense industry is not one of them. The Departments of Defense and Homeland Security got full funding through September 30th. More than 70% of the funds approved go to the Department of Defense. Foreign aid and nondefense spending saw slight cuts. Needless to say, the progressive wing is not happy. As it happens, I was at a Defense Department conference when the Bill passed. A lot of large defense contractors were in attendance. Many were … to say … giddy. [Let’s Look at Some Happy Campers]( - Frank Don't miss when our traders go live! 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