SPX makes all time highs, VIX breaks lower

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] March 24, 2024 [volman, vol man, vol,] SPX makes all time highs, VIX breaks lower Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… [If some of my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, our Glossary is here.]( Last Week: ‘I expect another rocky week. VIX closing higher after mid week lows is rarely good for stocks. Once again, JPow has the ball and we are stuck with what he says. A too hawkish Fed might change the interest rate narrative. I think we are in for a 150-200 point week in SPX. If we keep the current rate regime, that number for SPX is higher and VIX will see low 13s.” Well let’s see how I did?  150 point trough to peak move in SPX and VIX closed 13.06 and all action centered around the FOMC where Jpow said they were not going to do anything new, but might cut in the 2nd half of the year.  That leaves stocks with a steady rate policy into Jun. Steady policy should be good for stocks.  I was able to close several positions well in [OP Mentoring, Weekly Profit Cycles]( and [Trading Desk](. I closed my SPY puts in all products except WPC which I am regretting a bit as they got to close-to-close prices. [Easy Button](is now folded into [Trading Desk]( and equity strangles will complement the index strangles Mark and I trade in [Trading Desk]( going forward. The reality is we finished near highs waiting for the Senate to pass the ridiculous spending bill. Fed Gov Kashkari says the massive spending should not dent inflation. I guess he wants JPows job. The bill passed and the can gets kicked down the road again. That should be good for stocks. [vol] SPX daily price action over the last 30 days SPX was up for the week at all time highs. Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL) did not participate so lesser known stocks rocked us up. [vol] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. Sigma Vols closed lower on the week and made 30 day lows. Traders have almost no expectation for movement and likely traders were watching March Madness instead of trading. Good Friday shortens trade to 4 days next week so expect sub 13 VIX and dead sigmas. The 10-day realized vol is maddeningly low at 9.11 with 30-day 11.45. VIX trading 13 is fair so any drops in VIX now will likely be slow. [vol]SPX realized volatility snap on Mar 22 2024 VIX cash flirted with Zone 1 for part of the day. This lower end of Zone 1 has eluded us for 7 years. VIX ZONE 1 9-13 VIX ZONE 2 13.01 TO 17.99 VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 VIX ZONE 4 24< The front end of the curve is back into a normal contango. Unless something newsworthy moves stocks, VIX is on a slow burn. 1.40 ish drop in VIX cash value as VIX broke a long time UP VIX, UP SPX trend. [vol] Closing VIX curve, Mar 15, 2024 [vol] Closing VIX cash and curve, Mar 24, 2024 Check out what Licia, Mark and I hit on our [Option Pit YouTube channel](. [vol] VIX 30 day chart with 1 min candles I expect a quiet week. 4 day trading with VIX likely closing low 12s. I think selloffs are buying opportunities unless VIX jumps above 14.5. If SPX closes 50 points away from Friday’s close by Holy Thursday that will be a surprise. SPX is making new highs with both AAPL and Tesla inc (Ticker: TSLA) trading closer to lows of 2024. Still feels pretty bullish SPX. [Weekly Profit Cycles is opening for a quarterly subscription if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively. The last 9 Opens in WPC have been nice wins.]( Let’s Go - AG  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [frep] Ticker of the week! Each week, my team will give an overview of a stock. I’ll discuss fundamentals, Licia will analyze the charts, and AG will break down the volatility. Hey Traders, Everyone knows AI is hot….names like NVDA and SMCI have been all over the headlines… But under the radar there is another sector that has been doing extremely well…the financials. XLF has been strong in 2024 and has pushed to a 5 year high. Within XLF there is a stock that has outperformed almost all of the stocks in the Magnificent 7… We are going to break down these huge banks this week. I don’t know if you noticed buy JP Morgan is up almost 50% since its October lows. It is trading at an all time high and is looking to break 200. [Can it keep going?…read on.]( - Mark Don't miss when our traders go live! Get an alert everytime we open the live rooms to all of our readers for free by selecting the calendar you use below. Add Option Pit Live Events to Your Calendar [Apple]( [Google]( [Outlook]( [Outlook.com]( [Office 365]( [Yahoo]( [glossary, logo] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is:  Mutual fund - Registered investment vehicle regulated by the SEC with daily settled prices. [ftsp] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. 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