SPX prints a red week for 2024

Daily Pit Stop [fstp, logo, header] March 17, 2024 [volman, vol man, vol,] SPX prints a red week for 2024 Hey OP Crew, AG’s alter-ego Vol Man here with my weekly analysis. As usual, I will start with my last forecast… [If some of my Option Volatility Jargon is vexing, our Glossary is here.]( Last Week: “I expect a rocky week this week with significant rotation out of semis. What the Humphrey Hawkins testimony produced was no end in sight for government spending. I expect a volatile week with SPX taking a dive but recovering. VIX should see a 16 or higher peak. The bull is still here but this week could be a much needed break.” Well how did I do? SMH is down 20 pts from Friday’s peak. SPX finished the week lower, for the first time in a long time. VIX touched 16 and quickly backed off. I feel like one of those fortune tellers that says, “In your future, great sadness will come.” In short I was very right about my not so precise predictions.  I was able to close several positions well in [OP Mentoring and Weekly Profit Cycles.  Easy Button]( would be great if I could just take profits better. I am limping a bit in the [Trading Desk]( but we do have some live positions that can make some dough. It seems, at least a bit, that some volatility is creeping back into the market.  A down Friday does not come around very much in 2024. I blame Powell for not slapping Congress last week. CPI and PPI are a slow but tacit reminder that things can still reflate. I said that. As long as higher rates hold down inflation, everyone is coolio but if it doesn’t then we have problems. Rampant government spending is like endless buying in Nvidia Corp (Ticker; NVDA) as someone will be left holding the bag. That sets up a huge FOMC meeting next week. [vol](SPX daily price action over the last 30 days SPX was down for the week. I am not totally sure but the first time in 2024, but for sure on 2nd time. [vol] SPX sigma (Vol per term average) levels over the last 30 days. Sigma Vols did not close on a peak. There was a substantial drop midweek after the CPI but regained most of that back. Traders rebooted for a larger move coming next week. Note we are way above SIGMA lows with stocks barely off all time highs. The 10-day realized vol is maddeningly low at 11.48. In normal bull periods realized vol is half of that like 7 or 8%. This is still bullish to be quite honest since there are no real sustained downdrafts and bounces in SPX. [vol] SPX realized volatility snap on Mar 15 2024 VIX cash closed just lower on the week after two big inflation numbers. It should be a point lower after the headline news. VIX ZONE 1 9-13 VIX ZONE 2 13.01 TO 17.99 VIX ZONE 3 18-23.99 VIX ZONE 4 24< The front end of the curve in VIX is dead flat and ready for a move going forward into next week. There was real compression in Mar and Apr so VIX futures are just lower after the larger news is out. [vol] Closing VIX curve, Mar 15, 2024 [vol] Closing VIX cash and curve, Mar 08, 2024 Check out what Licia, Frank and I hit on our [Option Pit YouTube channel](.[vol] I expect another rocky week. VIX closing higher after mid week lows is rarely good for stocks. Once again, JPow has the ball and we are stuck with what he says. A too hawkish Fed might change the interest rate narrative. I think we are in for a 150-200 point week in SPX. If we keep the current rate regime, that number for SPX is higher and VIX will see low 13s. [Weekly Profit Cycles is opening for a quarterly subscription if you want to learn to trade VIX/SPY exclusively. The last 9 Opens in WPC have been nice wins.]( Let’s Go - AG  [logo, pit profits] Want to find YOUR winning fit? Give our Customer Care Team a call at [1-888-872-3301](tel:/1-888-872-3301) Monday-Friday from 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. EST. Or email them anytime at [support@optionpit.com](mailto:/support@optionpit.com)  [logo, fvix, header,] The Only Thing That Matters This Week Hey Traders! In Today's video, we'll cover: - FOMC and the impact it will have on the market - State of Gold - Levels in the major indexes - 5 Stock Watchlist [yt]( [Click here to watch the video!]( - Mark  [fpip] Time for TSLA Turnaround? Hi Shoppers, There is a very important Japanese candlestick called the doji. I like to call it the Almighty Doji. It can be the smallest little candle but boy can it pack a punch. The doji can be the candle that signals a change in trend. It can be found at the top of an uptrend or the bottom of a downtrend. And it can be your key to opportunity. The opportunity to hop into the next big move. The doji is formed on the days when the bulls and the bears are battling it out for control of the market. What happens is both sides are represented in the marketplace equally. How do we know that? The doji shows us that neither side takes over. The opening price of the day and the closing price of the day are right about the same price. Neither side wins. This causes uncertainty. The market hates uncertainty. This can cause that change in trend. [Continue here and I will show you the doji in Tesla (Ticker: TSLA).]( - Licia Don't miss when our traders go live! Get an alert everytime we open the live rooms to all of our readers for free by selecting the calendar you use below. Add Option Pit Live Events to Your Calendar [Apple]( [Google]( [Outlook]( [Outlook.com]( [Office 365]( [Yahoo]( [glossary, logo] There are plenty of terms in the trading world that need explaining. The Option Pit Glossary is here to help. Today's phrase is:  Diagonal spread - Calendar spread where the expiration dates are different and the strikes are different. Diagonal spreads can be long the ITM back-month and short the OTM front-month, or vice versa. [ftsp] All the Right Options. The Option Pit Team brings more than 150 years of experience to you every day. From the trading pits of Chicago to the world's largest banks to the halls of power in DC -- they've done it all. Now they’re collectively focused on one thing: making YOU a better, more profitable trader. Click the button below to schedule a call with our concierge Customer Care Team to find your best fit today. DISCLAIMER: FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The materials presented from Option Pit LLC are for your informational and educational purposes only. Neither Option Pit LLC nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational and educational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: OPTION PIT LLC IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER. Option Pit LLC is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented materials. Specific trading ideas or strategies discussed in the presentations or materials are entirely illustrative and do not constitute the solicitation of a transaction (or transactions) or a recommendation to execute a particular transaction or implement a particular trading strategy. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [Update your preferences]( This email was sent by support@optionpit.com. 1-888-872-3301 [Option Pit]( | 190 S LaSalle Suite 3000 Chicago, IL 60603 | [Privacy Policy](