The Dollar's Next Move Could Be Up

[Option Beast]( 01/23/2021   |   [View in browser]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [The Dollar's Next Move Could Be Up]( The dollar could have a bright future, contrary to the prevailing view on Wall Street. And the factors most likely to send it higher could be positive for U.S. stocks. The U.S. Dollar Index (ticker: DXY) has stalled at just above 90 for over a month after a rough 2020. It is at a crossroads now, some tell Barron's. Weighing on the currency is the trillions of dollars likely to flow into the economy as the Biden administration spends heavily to aid the economy. Counterbalancing the negative impact of the increased supply is the sharp economic recovery the stimulus may bring. The consensus view, for now, is that the dollar will keep falling, continuing its slide of 12% since March 20, when it hit its high point as a result of a global move into haven assets during the pandemic's onset. [More...]( SPONSORED CONTENT [This Money Trade Appears Between 9:30-10:45am Almost Every Day...Â]( If all you did was focus on this one simple trade you could make between $300-$1,100 per contract each day you trade. Don't make trading harder than it has to be. Keep it simple and walk away with daily profits. Get your free guide that shows you how to spot this, and when to enter & exit. [CLICK HERE for instant access.]( [REFLECTIONS... Coming Together? by David Sager](#) The major indexes fell modestly last week, holding short-term moving averages and letting long-term averages catchup. President elect Joe Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, among other things, on Thursday evening, however that did not buoy the stock market rally on Friday. As Randall Forsyth of Barron's sums up the week, "What the buzz these days seems to be more about is striking it rich by trading penny stocks, options, and especially cryptocurrencies, even though the Mega Millions and Powerball lotteries are closing in on $1.5 billion. Bitcoin's gyrations, over $40,000 on Friday, down to the low thirties, settling near $36,000 at week's end (1-16-21) is showing no signs of less enthusiasm. More Bitcoin later. The weeks-end stock market rally retracted from record highs, digesting the woes that tickled the averages. The near riots at the Capitol and the uneasiness surrounding the inauguration and transition loom large, however the market's resiliency continues to amaze, and the bull digs in. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped amid 'some' fears dropping 283 points or 0.9% this past week to 30,814, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5% to 12,998. The S & P 500 fell 1.5% to 3768, its largest decline since the week ending October 30. Still it was the S & P 500's first weekly drop for more than 1% since then, a possible sign investors are 'unflappable' and are digesting all news with a 'grain of salt.' Hopefully Wednesday will be an orderly and respectful transition. A Bit On Bitcoin.....Bitcoin is trading in and around $36.000 after a bit of a bumpy ride this past week. (Bitcoin's 24 hour range: $34,425-$39,673). The recent weakness in the dollar is a bit more apparent, giving more reassurance and maybe justification to be investing in Bitcoin. That confidence is bolstered by the fact that mainstream financial institutions, such as Blackrock, are declaring bitcoin a 21st century version of gold. Add in Paypal and Square, as they both are allowing customers to buy and sell via bitcoin. The 'real heavy hitters' such as Paul Tudor Jones, Mike Novogratz, and Stanley l Druckenmiller all back cryptocurrency as previously noted last week. The enormous interest and attention given by the above well known investors and the several 'blue chip' companies is fueling interest even more. With the giant interest, and the massive numbers of new investors participating in cryptocurrency, whether it be penny, or cents stocks, bitcoin has sparked an interest like never before. Nevermind the $35,000 cost of bitcoin, there are near a hundred fledgling cryptocurrencies 'out there,' all giving even the smallest investor a chance to....participate. "Bitcoin, like gold, is a vehicle for speculation. It is not a vehicle for investment," says Alex Ackard, a vice President at Research Affiliates. (And a former Bitcoin miner) And the band plays on..... A Bullish Sign For Oil Prices.....Increased global demand, together with recent supply cuts, could spark a significant rally in oil prices. Experts are predicting a 20% advance. "We expect prices to peak at $65 a barrel and remain in the range of $55 to $65 a barrel says Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York. This year crude has already rallied about 9% due in part to an unexpectedly bullish move by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, or OPEC+, earlier this month. The world's second largest producer, Saudi Arabia surprised the world that it would cut production February and March by 0ne million barrels per day. That move more than offset a combined 75,000 bpd increase for the same period by Russia and Kazakhstan. "My sense is that as we get back to a more normal society, we get a massive surge in people wanting to go flying and do things they could do before the pandemic," says Jon Rigby, an oil analyst at UBS London. Such a scenario would mean an increase in oil demand, with air and land travel resulting in higher fuel consumption. RUMBLINGS ON THE STREET Josh Wright, founder and chief economist at economics consulting firm Wrightside Advisors, speaking about the economy, At a conference of market strategists. "The economy requires forward momentum to stay healthy, and letting roll to a stop hurts everyone," Sonal Desai, CIO and portfolio manager of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, Barron's "The recent move upward in interest rates isn't one-and-done. This is an issue for fixed-income investors," says Ms. Desai. She adds, "I have some concerns about inflation, but I don't see super high inflation. It will move comfortably into the 2%-plus range. Short-term interest rates will hold steady, but I am worried about the long end of the yield curve. My baseline estimate for GDP growth is close to 6% this year, largely on the back of massive fiscal stimulus, but I am concerned longer term about the accumulation of debt," she writes in Barron's.....The 2021 Roundtable Todd Ahlsten, CIO and lead portfolio manager Parnassus Core Equity, Barron's "Business is a part of the solution to repairing the global economy and our social fabric. In 2021, business will play an important stabilizing role," said Mr. Ahlsten. " We think the market ends the year up, but there could be a correction around midyear," he writes in Barron's..... The 2021 Roundtable. Rupal J. Bhansali, CIO and portfolio manager International & Global Equities, Barron's "In the U.S. we are seeing broad-based signs of a market top, whether in valuations or the proliferation of SPAC's," says Ms. Bhansali. "As for the corporate tax rate, there is no other way but up, given record budget deficits in the U.S. That isn't priced into U.S. stocks," she writes in Barron's.....The 2021 Roundtable Mario Gabelli, Chairman and CEO, Gamco Investors, Barron's "Janet Yellon's Treasury Department and Jay Powell's Federal Reserve won't pull back on stinutus. The economy looks good for the next four to six quarters," he writes in Barron's .....The 2021 Roundtable [9 Best Utility Stocks to Buy for 2021]( Utility stocks aren't exactly the most glamorous energy-related investment on Wall Street. If you want dynamic energy stocks, solar energy and hydrogen fuel cell picks offer a ton more growth potential. Or if you want deep value investments, struggling Big Oil giants that are trading at a fraction of their value from a few years ago could be aggressive plays that pay off. But utilities do offer one thing few other energy-related stocks can offer: unrivaled stability. After all, electricity is as much a necessity as food and water for the typical household in the 21st century. Furthermore, the highly regulated nature of the sector and lack of competition in most geographies adds a layer of predictability that you simply won't find in disruptive industries such as Big Oil or alternative energy. Here are nine of the best utility stocks for 2021 if you're seeking stability and generous dividends to provide a stable backbone for your portfolio. While they probably will never make you a millionaire overnight, they are far less aggressive and will allow you to sleep soundly regardless of Wall Street volatility in the New Year. [Article continues...]( [4 Financial Planners Share The Unusual Tips That Help Their Clients Save More Money Every Month]( The easy part of creating financial goals is writing them down. The hard part is the follow-up, the action, and the constant behavioral and habitual changes you have to make to meet those goals. One of the biggest financial changes I wanted to make for myself in 2021 was to increase how much money I save every month. This was a reaction to combing through my 2020 credit card statements. I was intensely frustrated with my careless spending and filled with regret over items I bought that I truly didn't need. I wanted to make sure the new year was different. But after failing to make any big changes during the first few weeks of the year and noticing that I wasn't meeting my weekly savings goals, I decided I need to figure out better ways to make sure I didn't repeat the same mistakes of 2020. That's why I reached out to five financial planners and asked them to share the unusual tips they give their clients to help them save more money every month. Here's what I learned. [Click to continue reading this article...]( [Do Stimulus Checks Increase the Tax on Social Security Benefits?]( We've had two rounds of stimulus checks so far - and another round is likely. It's nice getting unexpected money, and for some people it's a life saver. Whatever your situation, we hope you're able to put the money to good use. But many seniors are wondering how these stimulus checks are going to impact their taxes - especially the tax on Social Security benefits. It's almost time to file your 2020 tax return, and nobody likes an unpleasant surprise at tax time. Hopefully, if you're a retiree, we can put your mind at easy about stimulus checks and taxes on your Social Security benefits. [More here...]( SPONSORED CONTENT [Can Your Nest Egg Survive A 89% Market Crash?]( The stock market crashed 89% back in 1929... and it can happen again. But options give you the potential to go after profit even when the market crashes. Getting started is simple. [Click here get your absolutely FREE options trading guide for more details.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [Option Beast]( Send this to a Friend. 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