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07/25/2020 Â Â | Â Â [View in browser](
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[China's 'Epic Confrontation' Warning Accelerates Stock Bubble Fears](
The U.S. stock market prepares for a 2% drop in 2 days after China's retaliatory actions. Beijing ordered the U.S. to shut down its consulate in Chengdu within the next 72 hours. Hu Xijin, the editor of Chinese state-owned publication Global Times, has accused U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of igniting an "epic confrontation". [More...](
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[REFLECTIONS.... Drifting Forward by David Sager July 23, 2020 #16](#)
If there were ever any doubts that these are some of the best of times, and worst of times for investors, look no further. Top rated growth stocks rebounded Friday after four or five sessions of sellings. Stock market 'bulls' got another perfect day of positive price action in all indexes. Leading financials got into the play with some massive numbers; JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup led the charges. Coronavirus vaccine hopefuls (The top four prospects) were setting new highs with somewhat 'dramatic news.' The S&P 500 also rose 0.3%. It is still poised to break above a June high at 3233. The Dow Jones fell 0.2% but marked it's fourth straight close above the 200 day moving average. The Dow is also setting up for a possible breakout.
Congress is due to return this week to assimilate another stimulus bill, which Greg Valliere, chief U.S Strategist of AGF Investments, expects will spark a bruising debate. Every 'player' has at least one non negotiable demand, he writes, "President Trump insists on a payroll tax cut, Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell wants companies protected from coronavirus suits, and the Democrats insist on aid to state and local governments. Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, is negotiating to make sure that US workers are not in a bad position, and protect them from widespread layoffs and small business closures. Meanwhile the Republicans believe that the best stimulus is a reopening of the economy giving certainty to workers and employers. A good bet this time around is that the stimulus will be reduced to from the previous $1,200.00 to $600.00, possibly arriving in October. This political quagmire will 'somehow' get worked out.
U.S. Treasury yields have fallen close to record lows when adjusted for expected inflation. In recent months the yield on the 10 year treasury has dropped sharply even as the 10 year yield has stayed the same- a combination that suggests investors are both expecting inflation and not worrying about short term interest rates. That is one reason some stocks have reacted so positively. It is a work-up market, to a degree and certainly appears short term in nature.
China has seized more financial firms as regulators took over institutions they said 'broke the rules' and added risk to the financial systems that are facing increasing pressure from the coronavirus pandemic. On the Chinese scene, Hong Kong unrest is ever present. Many countries have placed evacuation strategies in place, citing the extreme measures of the Chinese government. Hong Kong residents are in a frenzy, many of which are formulating 'escape' plans. A long history of commerce, trade, and being the business hub in the far east- are slowly ending.
Rumblings On The Street
Kristy Finnegan, Co-Manager, Vaya Large Cap Growth W, IBD "It's astounding when we look at what Microsoft is doing, " said Co-Manager Finnegan. "These are enormous markets that are disrupting. And the new revenues coming to them are staggering numbers. They were already in a strong position. The pandemic added momentum. Their cloud business, Azure accelerated its growth as enterprises considered where to host their applications. The pandemic accelerated the transition to Office 365- now renamed Microsoft 365. And it has a whole suite of applications they can cross-sell," she said. "They also have a small gaming business," Finnegan said, "They're launching a new gaming console in the second half this year. That should benefit a general pickup in gaming."
Ed Yardeni, of Yardeni Research, Barron's "I compare the current environment to the 'Twilight Zone,' " says Mr. Yardeni. "There are so many possible ways this could go."
Nicholas Colas, Co-Founder of Data Track Research, Barron's "In the grand scheme of things, it is not a lot of money if your goal is to maintain the status quo," says Mr. Colas. "Sometimes it is just best to spend a little money, so you don't have to worry about it later on,"
Wietse Nijenhuis, a portfolio chief at Citi Private Bank and Citi Investment Management Barron's "The dividend cuts and suspensions are behind us, unless we get a renewed economic shutdown," he says. The future market has a much rosier view of 2020 S & P 500 dividend prospects now than it did in early April, then says Nijenhuis, it was forecasting about a 33% drop in this year's payments-compared with expectations for a 3% to 4% decline presently. "The lowest quality companies will struggle in this environment, but most of them aren't growing their dividends any way," Nijenhuis says.
Gavin Newsom, California Governor. Barron's "The data suggests not everyone is acting with common sense."
[America Is Facing An Eviction Crisis As Moratoriums Expire: 'This Is A Potential Catastrophe'](
The United States is facing a possible tsunami of evictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The CARES Act, which was signed into law in March, established a temporary moratorium on evictions for all rental units that were backed by some form of federally financing, including Fannie Mae FNMA and Freddie Mac loans. That moratorium is scheduled to end on Saturday. [Article continues...](
[Second Stimulus Check Is All But Guaranteed. But Who's Eligible For Round 2?](
Would you qualify for a second payment under the CARES 2 Senate proposal? Here's how your income, marriage status, dependents and citizenship could determine if you get new stimulus money sent from the IRS. [Click to continue reading this article...](
[The FDA'S List Of Toxic Sanitizers Is Surging - Now At 75. Here's Why.](
The Food and Drug Administration has expanded its list of toxic hand sanitizers to 75 products that it says contain methanol, a toxic substance that could ultimately result in death if absorbed through the skin or ingested and is therefore are unsafe for human use. The warning includes some products that claim to have ethanol, or ethyl alcohol, which is safe to use, but which test positive for methanol. [More here...](
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