We're In a Market Where Oil Confirmation Bias Persists

 You are receiving this as part of your subscription to Oil & Energy Investor. To remove your email from this list, [unsubscribe here](.  [Oil and Energy Investor with Dr. Kent Moors] [Oil and Energy Investor with Dr. Kent Moors] Wednesday, October 23, 2019 [We're In a Market Where Oil Confirmation Bias Persists]( By Dr. Kent Moors Recently, several analysts have been talking (again) about something called confirmation bias. This is a term used to describe when somebody applies explanation, data, opinions, and, upon occasion, distorted reasoning to justify a conclusion they had made before the whole process began. We see this approach often in politics, where practitioners skew information so that it conforms to a preordained partisan world view. Sort of like cognitive dissonance on steroids. In fact, entire TV networks are built on it. But it is hardly limited to election cycles. For a while now, such bias has been present in how people read the trends in crude oil pricing. Here, confirmation bias emerges when one is justifying a call on the direction of oil based on elements other than simply what the market may be actually saying. The better part of the process involves attempting to factor into the calculation what broader economic and financial considerations may mean on the demand side. The less defensible intentions mirror investment moves that have already been made by the pundit. These are more often seen these days in bias-supporting shorts on oil. Moves to profit from a price decline receive a self-justifying confirmation from selective "analysis." A short makes money only if the underlying commodity or equity moves down in price. The investor borrows shares or control over material contracts and then immediately sells them, returning later to the market to buy them back for return to the source. 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