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[Oil and Energy Investor with Dr. Kent Moors]
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March 6, 2019
Taking a Look at Windsor in Years Past
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As I settle back into the States and begin preparing for the next conference I'll be attending in April (details on that [here](), I can't help but think about how times have changed over the last several decades.
I don't consider myself to be terribly old - after all, who does - but sometimes I find myself sounding like my grandfather used to while complaining about how those youngsters are ruining everything.
Longtime Oil & Energy Investor readers will know that I've been in the energy business for over 40 years. I consult for 29 governments around the world on matters of energy importance.
For this reason, I must be up to date on all the latest goings on in the industry.
Which is why I'm very happy to attend the Windsor Energy Consultations every year. Truly there is no other place and no other gathering that gives a person a true picture of what's going on in energy.
In doing so, I can't help but reflect on how energy has changed in the years that I've been in the business and attending conferences.
I have written about the topics that previous Windsor Consultations have discussed in previous years, but in looking at them as a group, one thing becomes quite clear.
It's something that I've pointed out many times, and compared to a [harlequin juggler](.
The world of energy is anything but stagnant. It's one of the more fluid industries out there, with many factors influencing what takes the spotlight.
Over the last few years especially, I've seen a tremendous move in how energy is discussed.
Juggling the Energy Balls
I've been attending Windsor for over a decade, but I've only been writing about it here in Oil & Energy Investor for about five years. I was leery at first - and cognizant of the Chatham House Rules - about disclosing what goes on at these meetings, but I decided in 2015 that the information presented at Windsor is too important not to share.
In the years since, I have written extensively about each Consultation.
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Each year has shown a different focus. I'd like to reiterate them here as an illustration of just how important these meetings and brainstorming sessions can be.
2015: OPEC and Oil
The discussion revolved around oil prices and OPEC's influence over them. [The Windsor discussions in 2015]( took place following the dramatic collapse of oil prices in the market and its cause.
As I wrote at the time, "That's because the first item involves something I have rarely seen in over 40 years in this business. Among the group, there was no consensus on where oil prices are headed.
"That was even the case among the diplomats from big producing countries in the Middle East. And aside from Iran (never a participant at Windsor), all the major OPEC members from the Gulf region were represented.
"Even so, there is little doubt that the OPEC producers who can afford it will toe the line on maintaining current production levels. For OPEC this has clearly become an effort to defend their market share.
"As we have discussed previously, OPEC's main targets are U.S. unconventional (shale and tight) oil production on the one hand, and Russia on the other.
"Of course, Moscow has already begun to adjust its production and export levels after getting hit by the double whammy of sliding oil prices and a collapsing ruble. The main battle is being waged over who gets to export oil to the most prized market of them all: Asia."
This shift to Asia is still the case, as I've mentioned many times recently, and it's becoming bigger every year.
2016: Renewable Energy
The world's shift away from oil, natural gas, and coal, and an increasing focus on renewable energy such as solar, wind power, biofuels, and even nuclear power.
There were three main topics under discussion at the [2016 Windsor Consultations](:
"First, there was widespread agreement at the consultations that OPEC is declining in its ability to dictate global oil, both from a pricing and a policy perspective. Now, controlling some 40% of the world's daily supply is still important. But that importance is waning in the face of renewed non OPEC production and the advent of shale/tight oil production.
"Second, the rise of a global balance among a number of distinct energy sources is recognized as essential moving forward, even by countries whose budgets are governed by international oil and natural gas sales.
"Third, the energy debt crisis now facing Western operating companies is going to spread as institutions holding that debt face rising levels of defaults and insolvencies. There is growing concern that the subprime mortgage credit crisis of a few years ago may revisit the global economy - except this time, shepherded in by cash-poor energy companies."
2017: The Effects of the U.S. Presidential Election
President Trump had just been elected prior to [2017's Windsor Consultations](, and concern about relations between the U.S., the Middle East, and North Africa were on the rise.
"Elsewhere around the world, the American presidential election is not simply viewed as populism. Rather, Trump's victory is regarded as another starting volley fired for a race against most things global. As more politicos look domestically for support, the genuine international problems go begging.
"Not a good environment for energy, perhaps the most cross-border sector of all."
2018: Battery Storage
At the [2018 Windsor Consultations](, we discussed the growing need for more battery storage. With energy demand growing as rapidly as it is, we need better ways to collect and store energy like solar and wind power for future use.
I called this Windsor meeting the most exciting one in years, and I still believe that. We discussed some radical changes taking over in energy.
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"There are some major breakthroughs on the horizon that foreshadows a fundamental change to those calculations.
The crux to all of this is the status of battery and storage technology. That portion of the agenda will put leading candidates under analysis.
Because the truth is, a "post-oil" world conversation isn't about any one "silver bullet" that will replace all energy sources. It's about a single technology that will make energy sources - wind, solar, oil, gas, etc. - interchangeable."
2019: Geopolitics Take Over
This year's [2019 Windsor Consultation]( was all about the geopolitical climate that's taken over most industries, and the impact it has been having and will have on energy in the future.
"There are several major geopolitical situations occurring as I write this.
The UK may come crashing out of the European Union, Qatar will have left OPEC, Venezuela (and its extensive crude oil reserves) may fall into a civil war, Libya has already been in one for some time, and the Cold War 2.0 is continuing, all before the end of March.
For my part, there are some essential observations I will make both to those assembled and to the ambassadors.
My main topic will address integrating the next stage of global energy investment, and it will encompass updates of some themes I have discussed at previous Consultations."
Windsor in the Future
With the way energy has been changing over the last several decades, one can only guess as to what future Windsor Consultations will hold in store.
I suspect we will be turning more and more toward renewable energy, bioenergy (such as [this new technology]( that could dominate the energy world), and other such new developments.
I am very much looking forward to seeing what the future has in store.
Sincerely,
Kent
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