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Also: A Trump-Clinton analogy [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP4QyAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9keW5hbWljL3JlbmRlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDI0MDIxNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTUyNDUmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZwYWlkX3JlZ2k9MiZwcm9kdWN0Q29kZT1VUCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTU4MjgwJnRlPTEmdXJpPW55dCUzQSUyRiUyRm5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlMkYwNWJiYWE1Ni1mZmY3LTU5NmUtOTJlMy1iNDBhZTNkMTY4MzcmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplumwxzmVjjk6pUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0SuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjE1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNTI0NSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTgyODAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW6bDHOZWOOTqlSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)[Continue reading the main story](#) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0SVaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDI0MDIxNSZ0ZT0xJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMTVXA255dEIKZbpsMc5lY45OqVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [The Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0SzaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMTUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE1MjQ1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1ODI4MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZbpsMc5lY45OqVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) February 15, 2024 [[Article Image] Stephanie Keith/Getty Images Not an Ordinary Special Election, and Yet a Typical Result Democrats claim another victory, although it doesn’t necessarily add more clarity about November. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8xNC91cHNob3Qvc3BlY2lhbC1lbGVjdGlvbi1kZW1vY3JhdHMtbmV3LXlvcmsuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDI0MDIxNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTUyNDUmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTU4MjgwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplumwxzmVjjk6pUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have a compelling data set you’d like us to pursue, send it to [dear.upshot@nytimes.com](mailto:dear.upshot@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS [[Article Image] Stephen Crowley/The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8xMy91cHNob3QvYmlkZW4tdHJ1bXAtY2xpbnRvbi0yMDI0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMTUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE1MjQ1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1ODI4MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZbpsMc5lY45OqVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [A Trump-Clinton Analogy That Could Give Biden Comfort Democrats who aren’t fans of the president could come home when faced with a Trump presidency, just as Republicans returned to their party in the final days of the 2016 race. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8xMy91cHNob3QvYmlkZW4tdHJ1bXAtY2xpbnRvbi0yMDI0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMTUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE1MjQ1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1ODI4MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZbpsMc5lY45OqVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [[Article Image] Simon Bailly/Sepia](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8xMi9vcGluaW9uL2JpZGVuLXRydW1wLWNvbnN1bWVyLWNvbmZpZGVuY2UtZWNvbm9teS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjE1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNTI0NSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTgyODAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW6bDHOZWOOTqlSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Guest Essay What a Split in Consumer Confidence Means for Biden Americans voters don’t think the economy stinks, actually. By Nate Silver](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8xMi9vcGluaW9uL2JpZGVuLXRydW1wLWNvbnN1bWVyLWNvbmZpZGVuY2UtZWNvbm9teS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjE1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNTI0NSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTgyODAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW6bDHOZWOOTqlSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnsLZsP0SVaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDExJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDI0MDIxNSZ0ZT0xJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMTVXA255dEIKZbpsMc5lY45OqVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. 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