Upshot: Secret of Democrats’ success

Also: Our latest Flashback quiz [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP4QyAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9keW5hbWljL3JlbmRlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDI0MDIwNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTQzNzEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZwYWlkX3JlZ2k9MiZwcm9kdWN0Q29kZT1VUCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTU3MzQ1JnRlPTEmdXJpPW55dCUzQSUyRiUyRm5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlMkY2NTQ3ZmJlZC03NjVhLTVkNTQtYThmOC0yZjJiMjc4OGRlMjcmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplut0BwWVVDJGXUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0SuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjA1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNDM3MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTczNDUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW63QHBZVUMkZdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)[Continue reading the main story](#) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0SVaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDI0MDIwNSZ0ZT0xJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMDVXA255dEIKZbrdAcFlVQyRl1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [The Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0SzaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE0MzcxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1NzM0NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZbrdAcFlVQyRl1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) February 5, 2024 [[Article Image] Caitlin Ochs for The New York Times Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats’ Success in Special Elections It’s strictly about turnout among the highly engaged, not about winning over Republican-leaning voters, but still suggests a slight edge heading into November. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8wMi91cHNob3Qvc3BlY2lhbC1lbGVjdGlvbnMtZGVtb2NyYXRzLXR1cm5vdXQtMjAyNC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjA1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNDM3MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTczNDUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW63QHBZVUMkZdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have a compelling data set you’d like us to pursue, send it to [dear.upshot@nytimes.com](mailto:dear.upshot@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TaaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC8wMi8wMi91cHNob3QvZmxhc2hiYWNrLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE0MzcxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1NzM0NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZbrdAcFlVQyRl1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Flashback: Your Weekly History Quiz, February 3, 2024 Can you sort 8 historical events?](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TaaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC8wMi8wMi91cHNob3QvZmxhc2hiYWNrLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE0MzcxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1NzM0NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZbrdAcFlVQyRl1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [[Article Image] The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC8wMi8wMy9jbGltYXRlL3VzLWxuZy1uYXR1cmFsLWdhcy1sZWFkZXIuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDI0MDIwNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTQzNzEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTU3MzQ1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplut0BwWVVDJGXUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [How the U.S. Became the World’s Biggest Gas Supplier The stunning rise of U.S. liquefied natural gas exports in the last decade has reshaped global markets and triggered pushback from environmentalists. By Brad Plumer and Nadja Popovich](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC8wMi8wMy9jbGltYXRlL3VzLWxuZy1uYXR1cmFsLWdhcy1sZWFkZXIuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDI0MDIwNSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTQzNzEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTU3MzQ1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplut0BwWVVDJGXUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [[A map shows the projected change in working-age populations around the world between 2023 and 2050. Nearly every country in Europe is projected to have fewer working-age people by 2050. Some East Asian countries will see the biggest drops, including China, which is projected to have more than 200 million fewer working-age people than it does now. By contrast, countries in Africa and many in South Asia will have significant increases in their working-age populations by 2050, some of 100 million or more, according to the U.N. projections.] Source: U.N. World Population Prospects 2022 | Working-age people are those between the ages of 15 and 64, an age group commonly used by demographers. | The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP4QDAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjQvMDIvMDIvd29ybGQvZXVyb3BlL2ludGVycHJldGVyLXNocmlua2luZy1wb3B1bGF0aW9ucy1mdWVsLWRpdmlzaXZlLXBvbGl0aWNzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE0MzcxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1NzM0NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZbrdAcFlVQyRl1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [The Interpreter How Shrinking Populations Fuel Divisive Politics A look into the future shows the importance of immigration. By Amanda Taub and Lauren Leatherby](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP4QDAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjQvMDIvMDIvd29ybGQvZXVyb3BlL2ludGVycHJldGVyLXNocmlua2luZy1wb3B1bGF0aW9ucy1mdWVsLWRpdmlzaXZlLXBvbGl0aWNzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTE0MzcxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1NzM0NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZbrdAcFlVQyRl1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0SVaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDExJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDI0MDIwNSZ0ZT0xJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDAyMDVXA255dEIKZbrdAcFlVQyRl1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. 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By Jeanna Smialek, Ana Swanson, Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8wMi9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L3NvZnQtbGFuZGluZy1lY29ub215LWluZmxhdGlvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjA1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNDM3MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTczNDUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW63QHBZVUMkZdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [[Chart showing job gains over the last 13 months. In January, the economy gained 353,000 jobs.] Ella Koeze](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8wMi9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L2pvYnMtcmVwb3J0LWphbnVhcnktMjAyNC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjA1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNDM3MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTczNDUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW63QHBZVUMkZdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Job Market Starts 2024 With a Bang U.S. employers added 353,000 jobs in January, far exceeding forecasts, and revised figures showed last year was even stronger than previously reported. By Lydia DePillis](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wMi8wMi9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L2pvYnMtcmVwb3J0LWphbnVhcnktMjAyNC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjA1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNDM3MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTczNDUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW63QHBZVUMkZdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) Like this email? Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up [here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRno4bdP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbmV3c2xldHRlcnMvdXBzaG90P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwMjA1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExNDM3MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTczNDUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmW63QHBZVUMkZdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) Need help? 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