The Morning: Predictions from the past

On New Year’s Eve, a look back at coverage that preceded big years in history. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QyAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9keW5hbWljL3JlbmRlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZwYWlkX3JlZ2k9MiZwcm9kdWN0Q29kZT1OTiZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXJpPW55dCUzQSUyRiUyRm5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlMkZlZGYwMjFjNi04ZjczLTUwODctOTYzYy1iZTc1ZDMwYjllZmMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0SuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)[Continue reading the main story](#) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0SWaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9ODU5MTgxJmxpPU5OJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OTl8yMDIzMTIzMSZ0ZT0xJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxVwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) The Morning December 31, 2023 [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TFaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvaWFuLXByYXNhZC1waGlsYnJpY2s_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) By [Ian Prasad Philbrick](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TFaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvaWFuLXByYXNhZC1waGlsYnJpY2s_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) Good morning. With 2024 about to begin, we’re looking back at predictions before big years in history. [A black-and-white photo of a crowded street, with a person in a party hat blowing into a plastic horn.] New Year’s Eve in San Francisco in 1967. Jerry Telfer/San Francisco Chronicle, via Getty Images As history turns 2024 is shaping up to be a big year. Countries home to more than half the world’s population — the highest share ever — are set to hold national elections this year, [according to The Economist](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QMAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmVjb25vbWlzdC5jb20vdGhlLXdvcmxkLWFoZWFkLzIwMjMvMTEvMTMvMjAyNC13aWxsLWJlLXN0cmVzc2Z1bC1mb3ItdGhvc2Utd2hvLWNhcmUtYWJvdXQtbGliZXJhbC1kZW1vY3JhY3k_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). They include Britain, India and the U.S., where a likely rematch between President Biden and Donald Trump will have huge stakes for the country and for the world. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza may take major turns. And that’s only the expected events. Many of the most important news stories are impossible to predict in advance. To prepare you for 2024, my colleagues and I decided to take a look back at The New York Times’s New Year’s coverage from other years when history turned. We included the turn from 1860 to 1861, months before the Civil War began, as well as from 2006 to 2007, as the smartphone era dawned. Sometimes, the coverage looking ahead was prescient, as in 1938-39, when anxiety about a new world war colored the paper’s account of the ball drop in Times Square. Other New Year stories — as in 1928, the year before the Great Depression began, and in 1967, the year before a chaotic presidential election — missed the mark, which is a reminder of how fickle the future can be. 1860-61 [A section from the front page of an old New York Times.] The New York Times Alongside coverage of New Year’s celebrations, The Times reported “[warlike preparations](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QKAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzE4NjAvMTIvMzEvYXJjaGl2ZXMvdGhlLW5hdGlvbmFsLWNyaXNpcy1oaWdobHktaW1wb3J0YW50LWZyb20td2FzaGluZ3Rvbi1yZXNpZ25hdGlvbi1vZi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)” — including Southern demands that federal troops vacate Fort Sumter, near Charleston, S.C. Still, the first paper of 1861 [sounded hopeful](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly90aW1lc21hY2hpbmUubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vdGltZXNtYWNoaW5lLzE4NjEvMDEvMDEvODgxNTI3ODQuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZwYWdlTnVtYmVyPTUmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), predicting that “the great Republic will grow stronger and greater with the procession of the months.” Instead, the Civil War began in April, with the Confederate attack on Fort Sumter. 1928-29 A [Times story](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QJAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzE5MjkvMDEvMDEvYXJjaGl2ZXMvdGhlLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1vdXRsb29rLWZvci0xOTI5LWhpZ2hseS1jb25mbGljdGluZy1pbmZsdWVuY2VzLXdoaWNoLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) about the country’s financial outlook on Jan. 1, 1929, acknowledged the difficulty of prediction but concluded on an upbeat note: “as to the underlying strength of the American economic system, however, there is only one opinion.” That opinion was bullishness. One Chicago banker [predicted](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QAAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzE5MjgvMTIvMzEvYXJjaGl2ZXMvYmFzZXMtaG9wZS1mb3ItMTkyOS1vbi1yZWNvcmRzLW9mLTE5MjgtYmFua2VyLWNvbW1lbnRzLW9uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) that the newly elected president, Herbert Hoover, would “give the country a most constructive and able administration.” The stock market crashed less than 10 months later. 1938-39 [A section from the front page of an old New York Times with the motto, “All the News That’s Fit to Print.”] The New York Times The threat of another world war stalked Times Square revelers ringing in 1939. “Among the funmakers, there were few who did not realize that the twelve months that had passed had seen drastic changes in the map of the world,” The Times [reported](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QFAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzE5MzkvMDEvMDEvYXJjaGl2ZXMvY2l0eS1ncmVldHMtMTkzOS13aXRoLWpveW91cy1kaW4tdmFzdC1jcm93ZHMtb3V0LW1pbGxpb24tbm9pc3kuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), referring to Nazi Germany’s annexation of Austria. The newspaper also quoted a German economist visiting New York who [predicted](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QEAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzE5MzkvMDEvMDEvYXJjaGl2ZXMvY3Jpc2lzLWphbi0xMS1mb3JlY2FzdC10aHJlYXQtb2Ytd2FyLXNlZW4tYnktZ2VybWFuLWVjb25vbWlzdC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) “a general European war in 1939.” Germany invaded Poland eight months later, and England and France declared war. 1967-68 Times journalists knew 1968 would be a big political year — but got the specifics wrong. A New Year’s Eve story [declared](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QGAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzE5NjgvMDEvMDEvYXJjaGl2ZXMvZ29wLWxlYWRlcnMtc2F5LW9ubHktcm9ja2VmZWxsZXItY2FuLWJlYXQtam9obnNvbi01MHN0YXRlLWNoZWNrLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) Nelson Rockefeller, New York’s governor, to be the only candidate whom Republican officials believed would beat President Lyndon Johnson. In reality, Johnson was so unpopular that he dropped out of the race, while Rockefeller dithered and launched a late and ultimately failed campaign. Richard Nixon took office in January 1969. 1983-84 [A headline from an old New York Times, reading, “American Looks to Future in Hope, Poll Finds.”] The New York Times [A poll by The Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMTk4NC8wMS8wMS91cy9hbWVyaWNhLWxvb2tzLXRvLWZ1dHVyZS1pbi1ob3BlLXBvbGwtZmluZHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), published on the first day of 1984, captured rising American optimism. But there were enough mixed signs that one G.O.P. pollster said he did not expect “a big party sweep” in the November elections. In fact, Ronald Reagan won re-election with the biggest Electoral College margin since Franklin Roosevelt’s in 1936. 1990-91 Turmoil in the Soviet Union filled the news as 1991 began. The Soviet foreign minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, had recently resigned, “a vivid reminder of the fragility of President Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s experiment,” [one Times story noted](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QQAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzE5OTAvMTIvMzEvYnVzaW5lc3MvaW50ZXJuYXRpb25hbC1yZXBvcnQtd29ybGQtbWFya2V0cy1iZWdpbi0xOTkxLXByZXNzZWQtYnktcHJvYmxlbXMtb2YtMTk5MC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). By the end of the year, the Soviet Union had collapsed. 2006-07 “Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cellphone,” [a Times technology columnist wrote in 2006](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly9hcmNoaXZlLm55dGltZXMuY29tL3BvZ3VlLmJsb2dzLm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMDYvMDkvMjcvMjdwb2d1ZXMtcG9zdHMtMy8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). “My answer is, ‘Probably never.’” Apple introduced the iPhone in June 2007, transforming life [in ways both good and bad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wMi8yNy9icmllZmluZy9waG9uZXMtbWVudGFsLWhlYWx0aC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). (That columnist, David Pogue, later included this episode in an article he wrote about [the worst tech predictions of all time](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2NpZW50aWZpY2FtZXJpY2FuLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlL3BvZ3VlLWFsbC10aW1lLXdvcnN0LXRlY2gtcHJlZGljdGlvbnMvP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~).) For more - In the interest of creating grist for future journalists looking to revisit old predictions, we also offer a [list of the events that might shape 2024](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8wOC9zcGVjaWFsLXNlcmllcy8yMDI0LWdsb2JhbC1ldmVudHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), and a forecast of [what people will buy next year](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8wOS9zcGVjaWFsLXNlcmllcy9nbG9iYWwtY29uc3VtZXItcGF0dGVybnMtMjAyNC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). - Recession fears, the future of Kevin McCarthy’s speakership and more: Politico rounded up [the worst political predictions of 2023](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucG9saXRpY28uY29tL25ld3MvbWFnYXppbmUvMjAyMy8xMi8yOS8yMDIzLXdvcnN0LXBvbGl0aWNhbC1wcmVkaWN0aW9ucy0wMDEzMjU2OD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0SWaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9ODU5MTg3JmxpPU5OJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OTl8yMDIzMTIzMSZ0ZT0xJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxVwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) NEWS War in Ukraine [Soliders stand amid red-and-white cordon tape on a street. ] Damage in Belgorod, Russia, yesterday. Reuters - Moscow said [a Ukrainian missile had killed at least 22 people](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC93b3JsZC9ldXJvcGUvdWtyYWluZS1ydXNzaWEtYmVsZ29yb2QtYXR0YWNrcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) in the city of Belgorod, in what would be the deadliest single assault on Russian soil since the start of the war. The claims could not be independently verified. - A large bombardment of several Ukrainian cities on Friday shows how Russia has [learned the best ways to evade](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC93b3JsZC9ldXJvcGUvcnVzc2lhLXVrcmFpbmUtbWlzc2lsZXMta3lpdi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) Ukraine’s Western-supplied air-defense systems. - As the war stalls at the front, both Russia and Ukraine have [turned to guerrilla tactics](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMS93b3JsZC9ldXJvcGUvdWtyYWluZS1ydXNzaWEtdHJhaW4tc2Fib3RhZ2UuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), including sabotage and targeted assassinations. Israel-Hamas War - Israel said it had destroyed a Gaza City apartment that the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar [used as a hide-out](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4Q-AWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2xpdmUvMjAyMy8xMi8zMC93b3JsZC9pc3JhZWwtaGFtYXMtd2FyLWdhemEtbmV3cy90aGUtbGVhZGVyLXdob3NlLWhpZGUtb3V0LWlzcmFlbC1zYXlzLWl0LWRlc3Ryb3llZC1pcy1hLWZvdW5kaW5nLW1lbWJlci1vZi1oYW1hcz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnNtaWQ9dXJsLXNoYXJlJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). - U.S. military helicopters [sunk three Houthi boats](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QAAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjMvMTIvMzEvd29ybGQvbWlkZGxlZWFzdC91cy1taWxpdGFyeS1ob3V0aGlzLXJlZC1zZWEtbWFlcnNrLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZzbWlkPXVybC1zaGFyZSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), killing all aboard, after trying to repel an attack on a commercial ship in the Red Sea, officials said. - The Biden administration [bypassed Congress for the second time](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0T6aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC93b3JsZC9taWRkbGVlYXN0L2JpZGVuLXVzLWlzcmFlbC13ZWFwb25zLXNhbGUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnNtaWQ9dXJsLXNoYXJlJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) since the start of the war to approve a weapons sale to Israel. - Hand in Hand schools, institutions in Israel with both Jewish and Arab students, are [trying to overcome difference](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMS93b3JsZC9taWRkbGVlYXN0L2lzcmFlbC1zY2hvb2xzLWpld3MtYXJhYnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) at a time when support for peace is at a low. Politics - “We are walking in new constitutional snow”: Officials and democracy experts are divided over [whether to keep Trump off the 2024 ballot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TWaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC91cy90cnVtcC1tYWluZS1kZW1vY3JhY3kuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). - Departing Pentagon officials once migrated to weapons makers, now many are joining venture capital firms that push the government to invest in [defense-technology startups](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9wZW50YWdvbi12ZW50dXJlLWNhcGl0YWxpc3RzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). Other Big Stories [A man wearing a green prison uniform, sitting at a wooden desk in a room with barred windows.] Marco Flores Lauren O'Neil for The New York Times - Marco Flores has been incarcerated since he was 17 for killing a man who was accused of raping him. Now 30, Flores is [fighting deportation to El Salvador](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMS91cy9tYXJjby1mbG9yZXMtbWFzc2FjaHVzZXR0cy1kZXBvcnRhdGlvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~), which he left when he was 6. - Apps that remotely track cars are being [weaponized by abusive partners](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMS90ZWNobm9sb2d5L2Nhci10cmFja2Vycy1ncHMtYWJ1c2UuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). Victims say car manufacturers have been slow to respond. - An Indiana man was rescued from the wreckage of a pickup truck [six days after he crashed](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC91cy9pbmRpYW5hLXRydWNrLXdyZWNrLXJlc2N1ZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~), the police said. FROM OPINION Biden needs courage to follow California’s lead on [transitioning America’s trucks](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC9vcGluaW9uL2RpZXNlbC1lbGVjdHJpYy10cnVja3MtcG9sbHV0aW9uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) to electric vehicles, Andrea Marpillero-Colomina writes. Here is a column by Nick Kristof on [the best year for humanity](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC9vcGluaW9uLzIwMjMtaHVtYW5pdHktcG92ZXJ0eS1ncm93dGguaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). The Sunday question: Should Ukraine begin negotiations with Russia? “Russia has broken every peace treaty it ever signed with Ukraine,” indicating it can’t be trusted to negotiate in good faith, [Anastassia Fedyk and Tatyana Deryugina write for The Los Angeles Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubGF0aW1lcy5jb20vb3Bpbmlvbi9zdG9yeS8yMDIzLTEyLTE1L3VrcmFpbmUtcnVzc2lhLXdhci1uZWdvdGlhdGlvbi10cmVhdGllcz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). But nonmilitary engagement with Russia is already in the works through informal talks, [Bruce Dayton writes for The Hill](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QKAWh0dHBzOi8vdGhlaGlsbC5jb20vb3Bpbmlvbi9pbnRlcm5hdGlvbmFsLzQzNjIwMjktaW5mb3JtYWwtZGlwbG9tYWN5LWNvdWxkLXBsYXktYS1yb2xlLWluLWVuZGluZy10aGUtd2FyLWluLXVrcmFpbmUvP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~): “This peacemaking must now intensify.” All of The Times. All in one subscription. Enjoy unlimited access to everything we offer — [with this introductory offer](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TWaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc3Vic2NyaXB0aW9uL2FsbC1hY2Nlc3M_Y2FtcGFpZ25JZD04N0pLUiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). You’ll benefit from more of the insights that you find in The Morning, every morning. MORNING READS [A man behind red bars holding a cat.] Behind bars in Santiago, Chile.  Cristobal Olivares for The New York Times Feline companions: The hundreds of cats that roam Chile’s largest prison aren’t only good for getting rid of the rats — [they’re good for the inmates, too](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMS93b3JsZC9hbWVyaWNhcy9jYXQtcHJpc29uLWNoaWxlLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). Football Sunday: The Upshot has created a tracker showing [every N.F.L. team’s path to the playoffs](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8xMi8zMC91cHNob3QvbmZsLXBsYXlvZmYtcGljdHVyZS13ZWVrLTE3Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). Vows: Once she got past the dating profile photo of him on a flamingo float, the pair bonded over [a love for baseball](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8yOS9zdHlsZS9tYXJnYXJldC1rcmV0em1lci1wYXRyaWNrLXBlbm5lbC13ZWRkaW5nLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). Lives Lived: Mbongeni Ngema was a South African playwright whose stage works, including the Tony-nominated “Sarafina!,” challenged and mocked his homeland’s policy of racial apartheid. He [died at 68](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TZaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8zMC90aGVhdGVyL21ib25nZW5pLW5nZW1hLWRlYWQuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0SWaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9ODU5MTkyJmxpPU5OJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OTl8yMDIzMTIzMSZ0ZT0xJm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxVwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) TALK | FROM THE TIMES MAGAZINE [A photo illustration of Hannah Ritchie.] Hannah Ritchie Photo illustration by Bráulio Amado By [David Marchese](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0S_aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvZGF2aWQtbWFyY2hlc2U_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) I recently spoke with the data scientist Hannah Ritchie, author of the new book “Not the End of the World,” about the problem of climate pessimism. Can you tell me about the decision to start the book with the sentence, “It has become common to tell kids that they’re going to die from climate change”? Who are these people telling children that? I’m not saying that everyone is telling their kids that they’re going to die from climate change, but there are strong activist groups where that is a core message. How is a 12- or 14-year-old supposed to understand that? The reality is bad enough, we don’t need to overblow it. This rhetoric does work for some demographics and does inspire them into action. But there’s a large demographic where it has the opposite effect. And your belief is that data works with those people? I think narrative built around data. What’s key, and you can incorporate data into this, is trying to build a narrative for people which is positive in terms of its future outlook. It’s: “This is the world we can build.” Which is more appealing than “We’re all going to die from climate change.” I was thinking about the anger of Greta Thunberg or the moral urgency of Bill McKibben. Both of whom have been undeniably successful in motivating people. Do you think a book like yours also has that motivating potential? I agree, Greta Thunberg and Bill McKibben have done an amazing job of rallying people to the cause. My point is not that my message should replace their message. It should stand alongside it, and with that we can build up a larger group of people that want to see change. You’re never going to get that with just a single message. [Read more of the interview here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8xMi8zMS9tYWdhemluZS9oYW5uYWgtcmljaGllLWludGVydmlldy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). More from the magazine This week’s magazine is [The Lives They Lived](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8xMi8yMi9tYWdhemluZS9wZW9wbGUtd2hvLWRpZWQuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), an annual issue remembering people — some famous, some not — who died in the past year. Below is a selection of the stories. - Harry Belafonte was America’s first Black megastar. He [harnessed the power of celebrity](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8xMi8yMi9tYWdhemluZS9oYXJyeS1iZWxhZm9udGUtZGVhdGguaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) to advocate for change. - Donald Triplett was the [first child diagnosed with autism](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8xMi8yMi9tYWdhemluZS9kb25hbGQtdHJpcGxldHQtZGVhdGguaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), helping the world understand a hidden part of life. - Tina Turner’s body was sculpted for public consumption, but she ultimately [reclaimed it for herself](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8xMi8yMi9tYWdhemluZS90aW5hLXR1cm5lci1kZWF0aC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). BOOKS [An abstract collage showing snippets of book jackets separated by pink slashes.] Staff recommendations: Times reporters, editors and bureau chiefs describe their [favorite books of the year](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8yOC9ib29rcy90aW1lcy1zdGFmZmVycy1mYXZvcml0ZS1ib29rcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). Our editors’ picks: “Magic: The Life of Earvin ‘Magic’ Johnson,” a biography rich in basketball and cultural lore, and [eight other books](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMi8yOC9ib29rcy9yZXZpZXcvbmV3LWJvb2tzLXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). Times best sellers: Daniel Mason’s “North Woods,” a book about a cabin in New England, is new this week on the [hardcover fiction best-seller list](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYm9va3MvYmVzdC1zZWxsZXJzLzIwMjQvMDEvMDcvaGFyZGNvdmVyLWZpY3Rpb24vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Mix [whisky and vermouth](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TJaHR0cHM6Ly9jb29raW5nLm55dGltZXMuY29tL3JlY2lwZXMvMTAyNDIyMC1yb2Itcm95P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTkmZW1jPWVkaXRfbm5fMjAyMzEyMzEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTExMzY3Jm5sPXRoZS1tb3JuaW5nJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNTM5MjImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmWDw1yRZbrwKb1SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) for an easy New Year’s cocktail. Keep [cozy this winter](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TaaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vd2lyZWN1dHRlci9saXN0cy9jb3p5LWZhbGwtYW5kLXdpbnRlci1waWNrcy8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). Pick the [best helmet](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vd2lyZWN1dHRlci9yZXZpZXdzL2Jlc3QtYmlrZS1oZWxtZXQtZm9yLWNvbW11dGVycy8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) for your two-wheeled commute. THE WEEK AHEAD What to Watch For - Tuesday is the last day for Donald Trump to appeal the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to take him off the state’s ballot. The state Republican Party has already appealed the ruling. - New York City’s ban on street vendors operating on Brooklyn Bridge begins Wednesday. What to Cook This Week [A Dutch oven full of chicken noodle soup with a ladle stuck in for serving.] Christopher Testani for The New York Times Worn down by the relentless holiday season? For this week’s edition of [Five Weeknight Dishes](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP4QCAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjMvMTIvMjYvZGluaW5nL2NoZWFwLWFuZC1jb3p5LW9uZS1wb3Qtc291cHMtYmVjYXVzZS10aGUtaG9saWRheXMtd29yZS11cy1vdXQuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD05JmVtYz1lZGl0X25uXzIwMjMxMjMxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTExMTM2NyZubD10aGUtbW9ybmluZyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTUzOTIyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgplg8NckWW68Cm9Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) newsletter, Margaux Laskey has put together a collection of one-pot soups and stews that will make dinnertime easy. Try ham and bean soup, a great way to use up leftovers; t’chicha, a salty-sweet tomato and barley soup from North Africa; and Ali Slagle’s chicken noodle soup. NOW TIME TO PLAY ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TCaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vcHV6emxlcy9zcGVsbGluZy1iZWU_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD Here is [today’s Spelling Bee](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TCaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vcHV6emxlcy9zcGVsbGluZy1iZWU_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). Yesterday’s pangram was zirconia. And here are [today’s Mini Crossword](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TCaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY3Jvc3N3b3Jkcy9nYW1lL21pbmk_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), [Wordle](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0TFaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vZ2FtZXMvd29yZGxlL2luZGV4Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), [Sudoku](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0S8aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vcHV6emxlcy9zdWRva3U_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) and [Connections](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnc-HDP0S_aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vZ2FtZXMvY29ubmVjdGlvbnM_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9OSZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ubl8yMDIzMTIzMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMTEzNjcmbmw9dGhlLW1vcm5pbmcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE1MzkyMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZYPDXJFluvApvVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). 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