Opinion: Harvey, and human activity

View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Tuesday, August 29, 2017 [NYTimes.com/Opinion »]( [David Leonhardt] David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist Journalists often struggle with the word “probably.” We are comfortable with certainty, and we’re comfortable with a distinct lack of certainty, in which we give both sides their say. But when the truth lies somewhere in between, we often don’t do a great job of conveying it. Pundits rush to false certainty, while news reporters fall back on the comforts of false equivalence and exaggerated uncertainty. The relationship between severe weather and climate change is a textbook example — maybe the most significant example these days. As you’ve no doubt heard by now, no single storm can be blamed on climate change. And yet climate change is clearly affecting weather patterns — including the terrible damage being wrought by Harvey. In [my column this morning]( I lay out the evidence and argue that it’s time to shed the reluctance to talk about the connection between climate change and specific storms. I hope you read it and [I welcome your feedback](. On a similar topic, [Zoë Schlanger]( of Quartz and [Justin Worland]( of Time have written valuable pieces. In The Times, [Bill King]( defends the Houston mayor’s decision not to evacuate, and [Robert Zaretsky]( writes of swimming house to house. Also in the news: [The Times]( and [The Washington Post]( have had scoops on the Trump campaign’s Russian contacts in the last couple of days. If you want to make sense of the big picture, I recommend making Josh Marshall, of TPM, part of your regular reading. In his [most recent piece]( Marshall argues that the latest details are likely only the beginning of worse revelations still to come. By [launching]( a ballistic missile over Japan, North Korea made good on a long-threatened show of force and silenced critics who claimed it had backed down over Guam, [explains]( Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control and nonproliferation expert. “These provocations may be the new normal with a nuclear armed North Korea,” he tweeted. The full Opinion report from The Times follows, including Peter D. Kramer and Sally L. Satel [on Trump’s mental health](. Editorial [As Harvey Rains Down Devastation, Houston Stands Together]( By THE EDITORIAL BOARD Even before the water recedes, there are lessons to consider, including about flood mitigation and the reality of climate change. Op-Ed Columnist [Harvey, the Storm That Humans Helped Cause]( By DAVID LEONHARDT Storms are more damaging than in the past, and climate change is at least partly to blame. Op-Ed Contributor [Houston’s Mayor Was Right to Not Evacuate]( By BILL KING We didn’t have the capacity to transport and house millions of evacuees. Op-Ed Contributor [Hurricane Harvey Was No Surprise]( By NOAH S. DIFFENBAUGH Weather that falls outside our historical experience is becoming more likely. We need to acknowledge and plan for that. Op-Ed Contributor [Swimming in Houston]( By ROBERT ZARETSKY Hurricane Harvey has us wading from house to house in our Texas suburb to see what nature and humanity have wrought. ADVERTISEMENT Op-Ed Columnist [How Trump Kills the G.O.P.]( By DAVID BROOKS The Republican Party has become a vehicle for white identity and racial conflict. Editorial [‘The President Speaks For Himself’]( By THE EDITORIAL BOARD The pardon of Joe Arpaio is the latest example of Mr. Trump’s distorted view of American values. Na Kim; Photo by Damon Winter/The New York Times [Op-Ed Contributors]( [Who Decides Whether Trump Is Unfit to Govern?]( By PETER D. KRAMER AND SALLY L. SATEL It’s better if that’s a political verdict, not a clinical judgment. Op-Ed Contributors [White Supremacist Groups Don’t Deserve Tax Exemptions]( By DAVID J. HERZIG AND SAMUEL D. BRUNSON The I.R.S. should revoke the tax status of groups like Richard Spencer’s. Op-Ed Contributor [Brexit Sends Labour Back to Class]( By MATTHEW J. GOODWIN If Jeremy Corbyn’s party is ever to get back in power, it has to win over its lost workers. Op-Ed Contributor [Iran Is Taking Over Syria. Can Anyone Stop It?]( By DAVID W. LESCH If Iran is the only country that cares what happens after the war ends, the Middle East will be in big trouble. Vietnam ‘67 [Lyndon Johnson vs. the Hawks]( By ROBERT K. BRIGHAM The president might have tried to end the war in 1967. Then came Senator John Stennis. On Campus [What an Unemployed Millennial Learned at Summer Camp]( By JOI LOUVIERE As I coached campers through their anxieties, I started addressing my own. Op-Ed Contributor [Charlie Parker and the Meaning of Freedom]( By ARTHUR C. BROOKS True liberation requires discipline, as he demonstrated in his music. HOW ARE WE DOING? We’d love your feedback on this newsletter. Please email thoughts and suggestions to [opinionnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:opinionnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Opinion%20Today%20Newsletter%20Feedback). ADVERTISEMENT Letters [Havoc in Houston From Floodwaters]( Readers say the large sums proposed for a border wall and a nuclear arsenal could be better spent to protect low-lying lands from storms. SIGN UP FOR THE VIETNAM ’67 NEWSLETTER Examining America’s long war in Southeast Asia [through the course]( of a single year. FOLLOW OPINION [Facebook] [FACEBOOK]( [Twitter] [@nytopinion]( [Pinterest] [Pinterest]( Get more [NYTimes.com newsletters »](  | Get unlimited access to NYTimes.com and our NYTimes apps for just $0.99. [Subscribe »]( ABOUT THIS EMAIL You received this message because you signed up for NYTimes.com's Opinion Today newsletter. 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