Opinion Today: The disastrous weather to come

And how richer nations need to help others prepare. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP4QpAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZwcm9kdWN0Q29kZT1UWSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXJpPW55dCUzQSUyRiUyRm5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlMkZmODU1ZDZlZC05OWIzLTUxMGQtOTI2OC05MzEzMTYyNzA5NDUmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0SxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) [Marquee Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0SYaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMTM5JmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIzMTEwMSZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDFXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Read more from Opinion](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9vcGluaW9uP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) November 1, 2023 By Chris Conway Senior Staff Editor, Opinion Only a few things in life are guaranteed. One of them is the [El Niño-Southern Oscillation](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP4QFAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2FydGljbGUvd2hhdC1pcy1sYS1uaW5hLWVsLW5pbm8uaHRtbD9hY3Rpb249Y2xpY2smY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm1vZHVsZT1SZWxhdGVkTGlua3Mmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZwZ3R5cGU9QXJ0aWNsZSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), known as ENSO. It’s a climate phenomenon that originates in the equatorial Pacific but has global weather ramifications for temperature and precipitation. Scientists “can often predict its arrival many seasons in advance,” according to the federal government’s [ENSO Blog](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP4QGAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNsaW1hdGUuZ292L25ld3MtZmVhdHVyZXMvYmxvZ3MvZW5zby93aGF0LWVsLW5pJUMzJUIxbyVFMiU4MCU5M3NvdXRoZXJuLW9zY2lsbGF0aW9uLWVuc28tbnV0c2hlbGw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), which is important, because the oscillation can result in potentially disastrous floods or drought depending on which phase it is in — El Niño, La Niña, or neutral. El Niño and La Niña events tend to recur every two to seven years, though not at the same time. That general predictability is the focus of a [guest essay](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8yOS9vcGluaW9uL2VsLW5pbm8tY2xpbWF0ZS1kaXNhc3Rlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) by three economists who focus on sustainable development, Amir Jina, Jesse Anttila-Hughes and Gordon McCord. They make the case that “these forecasts can be used to help prevent damage to food systems, power supplies and, most important, human health.” Some countries already prepare for ENSO events, but the threats they pose are not being addressed adequately in some developing countries. Droughts or heavy rains can push many more millions of children into malnutrition, the authors found in their research. Organizations like the United Nations and rich nations must do more to help these countries, they say. We are now in an El Niño phase, when sea surface temperatures are warmer than usual. It will run through the spring; scientists predict the odds are that it will become a strong event. [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0SXaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTk3ODUmbGk9VFkmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPVRZXzIwMjMxMTAxJnRlPTEmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMVcDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) “We know where El Niño generally brings more rain and more drought conditions up to six months ahead of time. Now we need to use this information to prevent millions of children from experiencing extreme hunger that will physically and cognitively scar them for the rest of their lives,” they write. El Niño may already have left its handprint on Mexico last week, when [Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8yNS93b3JsZC9hbWVyaWNhcy9odXJyaWNhbmUtb3Rpcy1tZXhpY28taW1wYWN0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) into a Category 5 hurricane, battering the southern Pacific Coast with winds of up to 165 miles per hour and leaving behind [devastation in Acapulco](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8zMC93b3JsZC9hbWVyaWNhcy9odXJyaWNhbmUtb3Rpcy1hY2FwdWxjby5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) and elsewhere. Scientists are still studying what happened, but [what is clear](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0T2aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8yNi9jbGltYXRlL25pZ2h0bWFyZS1odXJyaWNhbmUtb3Rpcy1kZXZlbG9wZWQtaW4tYS1mbGFzaC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) is that the hurricane formed in an area of the Pacific that was unusually warm, in part because of this year’s [El Niño](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TVaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYXJ0aWNsZS93aGF0LWlzLWxhLW5pbmEtZWwtbmluby5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). In 2015, the following events all had in common one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded, according to the government’s [State of the Climate](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP4QLAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmNsaW1hdGUuZ292L25ld3MtZmVhdHVyZXMvdW5kZXJzdGFuZGluZy1jbGltYXRlLzIwMTUtc3RhdGUtY2xpbWF0ZS1lbC1uaSVDMyVCMW8tY2FtZS1zYXctYW5kLWNvbnF1ZXJlZD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) report from that year: “A record-smashing hurricane season in the central North Pacific. Water rationing in Puerto Rico. The biggest one-year jump in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on record. Severe drought in Ethiopia. The hottest global surface temperature — by one of the largest margins — on record.” We’re about to see what this latest El Niño will bring. All the more reason to be prepared. [Read the guest essay here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8yOS9vcGluaW9uL2VsLW5pbm8tY2xpbWF0ZS1kaXNhc3Rlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). [[Article Image] Marco Ugarte/Associated Press](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8yOS9vcGluaW9uL2VsLW5pbm8tY2xpbWF0ZS1kaXNhc3Rlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [GUEST ESSAY El Niños Are Predictable. We Should Prepare for Their Possibly Disastrous Consequences. Rich countries must deepen their assistance to developing countries in the path of the weather pattern. By Amir Jina, Jesse Anttila-Hughes and Gordon McCord](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8yOS9vcGluaW9uL2VsLW5pbm8tY2xpbWF0ZS1kaXNhc3Rlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-1) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0SYaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAxODEyJmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIzMTEwMSZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDFXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) Here’s what we’re focusing on today: Editors’ Picks [GUEST ESSAY Italy’s Prime Minister Broke Up With Her Boyfriend. It’s Actually Quite a Big Deal. Giorgia Meloni’s breakup offers a window onto the nature of power in Italy today. By Mattia Ferraresi](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL21lbG9uaS1icmVha3VwLWl0YWx5Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL21lbG9uaS1icmVha3VwLWl0YWx5Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) More From Opinion [ROSS DOUTHAT The Israel-Hamas War Will Reshape Western Politics Some ideological trends and tendencies worth watching. By Ross Douthat](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL2lzcmFlbC1oYW1hcy1nYXphLXdhci1wb2xpdGljcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL2lzcmFlbC1oYW1hcy1nYXphLXdhci1wb2xpdGljcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [DAVID FIRESTONE As the World Smolders, the New Speaker Trolls Biden Mike Johnson is playing a game with the world when the world needs American leadership. By David Firestone](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL21pa2Utam9obnNvbi1pc3JhZWwtdWtyYWluZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL21pa2Utam9obnNvbi1pc3JhZWwtdWtyYWluZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [GUEST ESSAY Christian Nationalism ‘Is No Longer Operating Beneath the Surface’ A large bloc of white evangelical voters is determined to use the power of government to roll back the civil rights, women’s rights and sexual revolutions. By Thomas B. Edsall](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL21pa2Utam9obnNvbi1jaHJpc3RpYW4tbmF0aW9uYWxpc20tc3BlYWtlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL21pa2Utam9obnNvbi1jaHJpc3RpYW4tbmF0aW9uYWxpc20tc3BlYWtlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [What Happens When You Reach Out to Your Neighbor? Through reconstructions in a special effects studio, “Neighbour Abdi” embarks on a candid journey through Abdiwahab Ali’s personal history scarred by war. By Douwe Dijkstra](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL25laWdoYm91ci1hYmRpLXNvbWFsaWEuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL25laWdoYm91ci1hYmRpLXNvbWFsaWEuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [If Palestinian Freedom Makes You Uneasy, Ask Yourself Why ‘I am undone by empathy’: A Palestinian poet on the fight to exist. By Hala Alyan and Vishakha Darbha](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL3BhbGVzdGluZS1mcmVlZG9tLWlzcmFlbC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL3BhbGVzdGluZS1mcmVlZG9tLWlzcmFlbC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [GUEST ESSAY Why Is Swearing So Much Fun? The linguist Geoff Nunberg wrote that “dirty words are magic spells that conjure up their references.” By Rebecca Roache](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL3N3ZWFyaW5nLWxhbmd1YWdlLXBvd2VyLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL3N3ZWFyaW5nLWxhbmd1YWdlLXBvd2VyLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [GUEST ESSAY Could the Next Republican President Take Us to War With Mexico? Hitting fentanyl labs could further destabilize northern Mexico and the borderlands, worsening the migrant refugee crisis. By Greg Grandin](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL3JlcHVibGljYW4td2FyLW1leGljby5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMS8wMS9vcGluaW9uL3JlcHVibGljYW4td2FyLW1leGljby5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMxMTAxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwNjYxNCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDg4NTAmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmVBMT5CZeqrfUxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-2) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0SYaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzI2NTM3JmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIzMTEwMSZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDFXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [PAUL KRUGMAN The Military-Industrial-Complex Complex National security isn’t a monetary issue. By Paul Krugman](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8zMS9vcGluaW9uL3VrcmFpbmUtbWlsaXRhcnktc3BlbmRpbmcuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8zMS9vcGluaW9uL3VrcmFpbmUtbWlsaXRhcnktc3BlbmRpbmcuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [LETTERS The Israel-Gaza War: ‘Innocent Lives Being Lost on Both Sides’ Readers react to the ground invasion by Israel and a column by Nicholas Kristof. Also: Matthew Perry; shopping online and in person.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8zMS9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvaXNyYWVsLWdhemEtaGFtYXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8xMC8zMS9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvaXNyYWVsLWdhemEtaGFtYXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) Subscribe Today New York Times Opinion curates a wide range of views, inviting rich discussion and debate that help readers analyze the world. This work is made possible with the support of subscribers. [Please consider subscribing to The Times with this special offer](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TNaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpcHRpb24_Y2FtcGFpZ25JZD05S1hGVSZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMTEwMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDY2MTQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ4ODUwJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgplQTE-QmXqq31MUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~). Games Here are [today’s Mini Crossword](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TFaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY3Jvc3N3b3Jkcy9nYW1lL21pbmk_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD), [Wordle](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TIaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vZ2FtZXMvd29yZGxlL2luZGV4Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) and [Spelling Bee](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRnJMMxP0TFaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vcHV6emxlcy9zcGVsbGluZy1iZWU_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzExMDEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTA2NjE0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0ODg1MCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZUExPkJl6qt9TFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD). 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