Opinion Today: What happens after the world’s population peaks?

Depopulation can be a taboo topic, but it is one we should start thinking about. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP4QpAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMDkxOSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDMxMDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZwcm9kdWN0Q29kZT1UWSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ1MTI4JnRlPTEmdXJpPW55dCUzQSUyRiUyRm5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlMkY4ZjhmZmU4Ny1lNTI3LTViOWMtYjJmMi1mMGUxNDg5YmU3MDMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpk-qWNCWUAUYFjUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0SxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) [Marquee Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0SYaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMTM5JmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIzMDkxOSZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzA5MTlXA255dEIKZPqljQllAFGBY1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Read more from Opinion](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9vcGluaW9uP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) September 19, 2023 [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvc2FyYS1jaG9kb3NoP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) By [Sara Chodosh](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvc2FyYS1jaG9kb3NoP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) Graphics Editor, Opinion The chart that opens [the essay we’re featuring here today](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2h1bWFuLXBvcHVsYXRpb24tZ2xvYmFsLWdyb3d0aC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) — illustrating what the global population might look like over time — was the first thing that convinced me we should ask the economist Dean Spears to write for us. The second was Dean Spears himself. His work, done alongside his longtime collaborator Michael Geruso, looks at a phenomenon that I had long thought about but never seriously considered: What happens if birthrates continue to drop? The best current projections estimate a peak global population sometime soon — within the lifetimes of children alive today. But few researchers have looked much further than that. Dean’s work gives us a glimpse into what could happen after that point. More than that, it offers us a thoughtful examination of how we should approach this uncertain future. Depopulation is a fraught topic. So much of society is built on the implicit assumption that our population is ever-growing. It’s easy to begin vilifying anyone who chooses not to have children, or even to justify reversing abortion rights as some kind of nationalistic good. I worried that even touching the topic would be too difficult. But Dean was relentlessly considerate in his writing. He insisted that we could grapple with two realities at once: that declining birthrates are a potentially serious challenge that we don’t yet know how to tackle, and that we can also find a way to do just that. The resulting piece taught me a lot about just how intractable low birthrates are. Once they dip below about two children per woman, they generally don’t come back up. It also taught me how to start having a conversation about this sensitive, even taboo, topic. I encourage you to read the full piece to understand exactly what we might be facing in the not-so-distant future. It may be more of a shift than you think. [Read the essay here.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2h1bWFuLXBvcHVsYXRpb24tZ2xvYmFsLWdyb3d0aC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [[Article Image] The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2h1bWFuLXBvcHVsYXRpb24tZ2xvYmFsLWdyb3d0aC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [All of the Predictions Agree on One Thing: Humanity Peaks Soon Most people now live in countries where two or fewer children are born for every two adults. By Dean Spears](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2h1bWFuLXBvcHVsYXRpb24tZ2xvYmFsLWdyb3d0aC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0SXaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTk3ODUmbGk9VFkmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPVRZXzIwMjMwOTE5JnRlPTEmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMDkxOVcDbnl0Qgpk-qWNCWUAUYFjUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) Here’s what we’re focusing on today: Editors’ Picks [GUEST ESSAY Meet Putin’s Ghostwriter From the shadows, Vladimir Medinsky has helped construct the ideological edifice of Russia today. 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But more won’t cut it with fossil fuels. By Lydia Millet](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOS9vcGluaW9uL2NsaW1hdGUtc3VtbWl0LTIwMjMtdW4uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMDkxOSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDMxMDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ1MTI4JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpk-qWNCWUAUYFjUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOS9vcGluaW9uL2NsaW1hdGUtc3VtbWl0LTIwMjMtdW4uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMDkxOSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDMxMDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ1MTI4JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpk-qWNCWUAUYFjUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [A Skeptical Look at ‘Self-Care’ The psychiatrist Pooja Lakshmin argues that real self-care is about embracing internal work — not checking something off a to-do list. By ‘The Ezra Klein Show’](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOS9vcGluaW9uL2V6cmEta2xlaW4tcG9kY2FzdC1wb29qYS1sYWtzaG1pbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOS9vcGluaW9uL2V6cmEta2xlaW4tcG9kY2FzdC1wb29qYS1sYWtzaG1pbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [PETER COY These Human-Made Natural Wonders Hide in Plain Sight To hike on one of America’s long trails is to understand the power of network effects. By Peter Coy](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2FwcGFsYWNoaWFuLXRyYWlsLWdyZWVud2F5Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzA5MTkmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTAzMTAzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0NTEyOCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZPqljQllAFGBY1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2FwcGFsYWNoaWFuLXRyYWlsLWdyZWVud2F5Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzA5MTkmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTAzMTAzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE0NTEyOCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZPqljQllAFGBY1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [LETTERS Empty Offices, Empty Storefronts What should be done with the empty space? Also: Aid to Ukraine; a climate emergency; what home organizers see.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvZW1wdHktb2ZmaWNlcy1zdG9yZWZyb250cy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvZW1wdHktb2ZmaWNlcy1zdG9yZWZyb250cy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjMwOTE5Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEwMzEwMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNDUxMjgmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmT6pY0JZQBRgWNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-1) ADVERTISEMENT [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0SYaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAxODEyJmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIzMDkxOSZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMzA5MTlXA255dEIKZPqljQllAFGBY1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [LETTERS Nancy Pelosi, on the 1973 Coup in Chile The former House speaker writes to add some history about the U.S. role.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvbmFuY3ktcGVsb3NpLWNoaWxlLWNvdXAuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMDkxOSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDMxMDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ1MTI4JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpk-qWNCWUAUYFjUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRm7BKlP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMy8wOS8xOC9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvbmFuY3ktcGVsb3NpLWNoaWxlLWNvdXAuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIzMDkxOSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMDMxMDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTQ1MTI4JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0Qgpk-qWNCWUAUYFjUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) Subscribe Today New York Times Opinion curates a wide range of views, inviting rich discussion and debate that help readers analyze the world. 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