Opinion Today: Predictions for eight critical midterm races

Political experts place their bets. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP4QoAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnByb2R1Y3RDb2RlPVRZJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1cmk9bnl0JTNBJTJGJTJGbmV3c2xldHRlciUyRmE0YzcwNzk5LTNmOGItNWJiOS1iMWY2LWJmMDMxM2ZmNGMzZiZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0SwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMTA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODgzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjM3OSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2NEU2pjyH8VhFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMTM5JmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIyMTEwOFcDbnl0QgpjY0RTamPIfxWEUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [Read more from Opinion](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0S_aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9vcGluaW9uP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMTA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODgzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjM3OSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2NEU2pjyH8VhFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) November 8, 2022 Illustrations by Lucinda Rogers [Author Headshot] By Laura Reston Senior Staff Editor, Opinion For months now, Times Opinion has been chronicling the twists and turns of the midterm races, as Democrats surged, Republicans rallied, and we barreled into the final stretch before Election Day. As an editor handling Opinion’s politics coverage, I spent a lot of that time looking for writers who could offer a fresh perspective: a [commercial fisherman in Alaska](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wNi8wNy9vcGluaW9uL3RydW1wLW11cmtvd3NraS1hbGFza2EuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) to write about Lisa Murkowski, a [young state senator in Maine](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wNS8wMi9vcGluaW9uL2RlbW9jcmF0cy1ydXJhbC1hbWVyaWNhLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjExMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4ODMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzc5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY0RTamPIfxWEUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) to explain why Democrats struggle with rural voters, a [historian](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wNy8xMS9vcGluaW9uL3JlcHVibGljYW5zLWFib3J0aW9uLXByb2hpYml0aW9uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjExMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4ODMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzc5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY0RTamPIfxWEUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) to draw out lessons from Prohibition for today, as Republicans set out to ban abortion — voices who would expose readers to different arguments and viewpoints. But as we got closer to Election Day, I found myself wanting to hear from some familiar voices too: At a time when nothing feels certain, whom would they put their money on? So we asked several columnists and guest essayists to give us their predictions on a particular race that had fascinated or perplexed them. Ross Douthat bet on Pennsylvania’s Mehmet Oz; Gail Collins, with characteristic aplomb, chose a long shot, Ohio’s Tim Ryan. All told, [in a package we published this week](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL21pZHRlcm1zLTIwMjItcHJlZGljdGlvbnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), there are eight predictions from savvy observers spanning the political spectrum. Together, they highlight the complexities and dangers of an election that continues to defy forecasts. In a few days, once the results are in, we’ll circle back to these writers, asking them to tell us what they got right (and wrong). In that sense, the goal of this project aligns with much of what we do on Opinion: seeking out writers who have strong voices and firm convictions, of course, but who also — and perhaps more important in this political moment — have the humility to recognize when they’re wrong, and to reassess as new facts emerge. [See all of the predictions here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL21pZHRlcm1zLTIwMjItcHJlZGljdGlvbnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), and join Jamelle Bouie, Michelle Goldberg, Ezra Klein and more as they discuss the races, results and future of America live on election night at 6 p.m. E.S.T. at nytimes.com. [[Article Image] Illustrations by Lucinda Rogers](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL21pZHRlcm1zLTIwMjItcHJlZGljdGlvbnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Who Will Win in These Eight Races? Political experts place their bets on the midterm elections. By Ross Douthat, Christina Greer, Dan McCarthy, Michelle Goldberg, Steve Phillips, Michelle Cottle, Gail Collins and Lulu Garcia-Navarro](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL21pZHRlcm1zLTIwMjItcHJlZGljdGlvbnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0RsaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTk3ODUmbGk9VFkmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPVRZXzIwMjIxMTA4VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~ Here’s what we’re focusing on today: Editors’ Picks [Jamelle Bouie No One Forced Republicans to Do Any of These Things Why do we act as though the lunacy of election denial is an organic phenomenon? 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By Michelle Goldberg](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2xlZS16ZWxkaW4tYWJvcnRpb24tbnkuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2xlZS16ZWxkaW4tYWJvcnRpb24tbnkuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) Ideas [Guest Essay How to Talk to Kids About Drugs in the Age of Fentanyl Fentanyl has exponentially increased the risk of youthful experiments. By Maia Szalavitz](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TWaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2ZlbnRhbnlsLXRlZW5zLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjExMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4ODMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzc5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY0RTamPIfxWEUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TWaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2ZlbnRhbnlsLXRlZW5zLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjExMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4ODMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzc5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY0RTamPIfxWEUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [peter coy The Fed Won’t Say It, but It Doesn’t Want a Strong Stock Market When you’re fighting inflation, it’s a problem if people feel richer. By Peter Coy](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2ZlZC1zdG9jay1tYXJrZXQtaW5mbGF0aW9uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjExMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4ODMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzc5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY0RTamPIfxWEUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2ZlZC1zdG9jay1tYXJrZXQtaW5mbGF0aW9uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjExMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4ODMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzc5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY0RTamPIfxWEUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-1) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAxODEyJmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIyMTEwOFcDbnl0QgpjY0RTamPIfxWEUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Opinion Audio [George Saunders on the ‘Braindead Megaphone’ That Makes Our Politics So Awful The writer shares his observations on how social media has shaped the American psyche — and how more compassion and ‘affection’ could help. 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Also: Politics and religion; voter integrity; rising antisemitism; putting Russia on notice.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvbWlkdGVybS1lbGVjdGlvbnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlTNhEP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvbWlkdGVybS1lbGVjdGlvbnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTEwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03Njg4MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzNzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNjRFNqY8h_FYRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) Subscribe Today New York Times Opinion curates a wide range of views, inviting rich discussion and debate that help readers analyze the world. 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