Upshot: 4 Scenarios for Election

What you need to know for Tuesday [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP4QlAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIyMTEwNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NjgwOCZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnByb2R1Y3RDb2RlPVVQJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzMDImdGU9MSZ1cmk9bnl0JTNBJTJGJTJGbmV3c2xldHRlciUyRjIxNjdmOTViLTBiMTctNTU0Ni04ODc0LWZiM2IyMmQyOWFhMCZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNj6ShpY8hx4jRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0StaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIyMTEwN1cDbnl0QgpjY-koaWPIceI0Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [NYTimes.com/Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0SyaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjExMDcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4MDgmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzAyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY-koaWPIceI0Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) November 7, 2022 [[Article Image] Ryan Carl](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNy91cHNob3QvZWxlY3Rpb24tbmlnaHQtc2NlbmFyaW9zLW1pZHRlcm1zLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjExMDcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4MDgmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzAyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY-koaWPIceI0Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Who Will Win the Battle for Congress? Four Scenarios. A wide range of outcomes is still possible. Here are signs to look for on election night. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNy91cHNob3QvZWxlY3Rpb24tbmlnaHQtc2NlbmFyaW9zLW1pZHRlcm1zLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjExMDcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4MDgmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzAyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY-koaWPIceI0Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNy91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvZWxlY3Rpb24td2VhdGhlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Will Rain Affect Turnout Tomorrow? The Answer Is Cloudy. Where the Election Day forecast is wetter than normal. By Eve Washington and John Keefe](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNy91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvZWxlY3Rpb24td2VhdGhlci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have a compelling data set you’d like us to pursue, send it to [dear.upshot@nytimes.com](mailto:dear.upshot@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). 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By Emily Badger](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNC91cHNob3QvY3JpbWUtbWlkdGVybXMtZWxlY3Rpb24tMjAyMi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNS91cHNob3QvcG9sbGluZy1hdmVyYWdlcy1taWR0ZXJtLWVsZWN0aW9uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjExMDcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4MDgmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzAyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY-koaWPIceI0Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Polling Averages Can Be Useful, but What’s Underneath Has Changed This year, a wave of polls from Republican-leaning firms is driving the averages. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNS91cHNob3QvcG9sbGluZy1hdmVyYWdlcy1taWR0ZXJtLWVsZWN0aW9uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjExMDcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4MDgmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzAyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY-koaWPIceI0Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNy91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvZWxlY3Rpb24tcmVzdWx0cy10aW1lLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjExMDcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4MDgmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzAyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY-koaWPIceI0Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [It Took Two Weeks to Call Every State in 2020. This Is When to Expect Results This Year. We surveyed every state about their plans for counting votes in the 2022 election. By Alicia Parlapiano and Lazaro Gamio](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNy91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvZWxlY3Rpb24tcmVzdWx0cy10aW1lLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjExMDcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzY4MDgmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTEyMzAyJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjY-koaWPIceI0Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNi91cHNob3QvcG9sbHMtbWlkdGVybS1lbGVjdGlvbnMtd2FybmluZy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [A Key Polling Warning Sign Has Dimmed Since September The emergence of Republican-leaning pollsters has reduced the risk that polling averages will overestimate Democrats. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNi91cHNob3QvcG9sbHMtbWlkdGVybS1lbGVjdGlvbnMtd2FybmluZy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Subscribe Today We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. 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See where underrepresented groups have made gains and where they have declined. By Maggie Astor and Eleanor Lutz](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMS8wNS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9taWR0ZXJtcy1kaXZlcnNpdHkuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIyMTEwNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NjgwOCZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMTIzMDImdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNj6ShpY8hx4jRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [[Article Image] Desiree Rios/The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNC91cy9zdWJ1cmJhbi13b21lbi1taWR0ZXJtcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Suburban Women, No Longer ‘Soccer Moms,’ Hold Key to Midterms A caricature of the suburban female voter looms large in American politics. But in battleground regions, many voters don’t fit the stereotype — and perhaps, never did. By Dana Goldstein, Robert Gebeloff, Allison McCann and Brent McDonald](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMS8wNC91cy9zdWJ1cmJhbi13b21lbi1taWR0ZXJtcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Like this email? Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up [here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlS63pP0S_aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbmV3c2xldHRlcnMvdXBzaG90P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMTA3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc2ODA4Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTExMjMwMiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY2PpKGljyHHiNFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). 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