Opinion Today: Is America headed for another civil war?

Jamelle Bouie and Tim Alberta explore the extent of America’s polarization on “The Argument.” [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP4QoAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTAxNCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDU4NCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnByb2R1Y3RDb2RlPVRZJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk5NDYmdGU9MSZ1cmk9bnl0JTNBJTJGJTJGbmV3c2xldHRlciUyRjRkMWViZjE0LTEwNTgtNWYyNS1hNjM4LWFjMTI1MTc3NmE5MCZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFwk9JY7z-_IdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0SwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMDE0Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTg0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTk0NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0XCT0ljvP78h1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMTM5JmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIyMTAxNFcDbnl0QgpjRcJPSWO8_vyHUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [Read more from Opinion](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0S_aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9vcGluaW9uP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMDE0Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTg0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTk0NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0XCT0ljvP78h1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) October 14, 2022 [Author Headshot] By Anabel Bacon Editor, Opinion Audio/The Argument We’re a little over a month away from the midterms, and Americans are not feeling great about one another. Public trust in institutions [is at a record low](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdhbGx1cC5jb20vcG9sbC8zOTQyODMvY29uZmlkZW5jZS1pbnN0aXR1dGlvbnMtZG93bi1hdmVyYWdlLW5ldy1sb3cuYXNweD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTAxNCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDU4NCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk5NDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFwk9JY7z-_IdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). Threats of violence against politicians [are increasing](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8wMS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy92aW9sZW50LXRocmVhdHMtbGF3bWFrZXJzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjEwMTQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzQ1ODQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA5OTQ2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjRcJPSWO8_vyHUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~). In August, in the days following the F.B.I. search of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, [social media posts discussing the possibility of civil war spiked](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8wNS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9jaXZpbC13YXItc29jaWFsLW1lZGlhLXRydW1wLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjEwMTQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzQ1ODQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA5OTQ2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjRcJPSWO8_vyHUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~). And according to [recent polling](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP4QMAWh0dHBzOi8vdG9kYXkueW91Z292LmNvbS90b3BpY3MvcG9saXRpY3MvYXJ0aWNsZXMtcmVwb3J0cy8yMDIyLzA4LzI2L3R3by1pbi1maXZlLWFtZXJpY2Fucy1jaXZpbC13YXItc29tZXdoYXQtbGlrZWx5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMDE0Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTg0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTk0NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0XCT0ljvP78h1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) by The Economist and YouGov, 60 percent of Americans believe that political violence is likely to worsen in the coming years, while 40 percent think that civil war is at least “somewhat likely” to happen within the next decade. It’s frightening language — but is it the right language? This week on the Times Opinion podcast “[The Argument,](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMi9vcGluaW9uL3RoZS1hcmd1bWVudC1hbWVyaWNhLWNpdmlsLXdhci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMDE0Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTg0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTk0NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0XCT0ljvP78h1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)” we dig into the semantics and the history of civil conflict in the United States to get specific about what we mean when we talk about the threat of civil war in 2022 — and how worried we should really be. One of our guests, the Opinion columnist Jamelle Bouie, [has argued](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TYaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wMi8xNS9vcGluaW9uL3NlY29uZC1jaXZpbC13YXIuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTAxNCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDU4NCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk5NDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFwk9JY7z-_IdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) that our current political and cultural divisions, while heightened, are not the same as the ones that characterized the antebellum period of the 1850s. In this episode, he notes that political violence levels can be elevated while civil society remains relatively normal. “That’s a qualitatively different thing than what life looks like under conditions of civil war,” he says. But our other guest, Tim Alberta, a staff writer at The Atlantic, has spent years reporting on the far right in the United States, and he’s alarmed by both the recent increase in political violence and violent rhetoric and what he sees as our complacent response. “We all want to tell ourselves a story that we’re Americans, and we’re exceptional,” he says, “and this is just another case where we’re going to have to buckle up and we’ll survive it because that’s what we do.” But, he adds, “whether or not that’s true, it feels disingenuous to pretend like there’s not something unique about this threat.” [Listen to the full episode here.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMi9vcGluaW9uL3RoZS1hcmd1bWVudC1hbWVyaWNhLWNpdmlsLXdhci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMDE0Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTg0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTk0NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0XCT0ljvP78h1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [[Article Image] Leah Millis/Reuters](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMi9vcGluaW9uL3RoZS1hcmd1bWVudC1hbWVyaWNhLWNpdmlsLXdhci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMDE0Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTg0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTk0NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0XCT0ljvP78h1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Is America Headed for Another Civil War? Jamelle Bouie and Tim Alberta on whether America’s polarization is at a tipping point. By ‘The Argument’](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMi9vcGluaW9uL3RoZS1hcmd1bWVudC1hbWVyaWNhLWNpdmlsLXdhci5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjIxMDE0Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTg0Jm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTk0NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0XCT0ljvP78h1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0RsaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTk3ODUmbGk9VFkmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPVRZXzIwMjIxMDE0VwNueXRCCmNFwk9JY7z-_IdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~ Here’s what we’re focusing on today: Editors’ Picks [David Brooks This Is What Happens When Race Is Everything Stop turning public life into a brutal struggle of group against group. By David Brooks](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMy9vcGluaW9uL2xhLWNpdHktY291bmNpbC1yYWNpc20uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTAxNCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDU4NCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk5NDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFwk9JY7z-_IdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMy9vcGluaW9uL2xhLWNpdHktY291bmNpbC1yYWNpc20uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIyMTAxNCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDU4NCZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk5NDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFwk9JY7z-_IdSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) On the News [Paul Krugman When Trade Becomes a Weapon America abandons its sunny view of globalization. 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By David M. Perry](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMy9vcGluaW9uL2ZldHRlcm1hbi1kaXNhYmlsaXR5Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjEwMTQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzQ1ODQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA5OTQ2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjRcJPSWO8_vyHUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMy9vcGluaW9uL2ZldHRlcm1hbi1kaXNhYmlsaXR5Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjEwMTQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzQ1ODQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA5OTQ2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjRcJPSWO8_vyHUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) Ideas [Jamelle Bouie This Is How to Put the Supreme Court in Its Place Democrats in the 21st Century should not make the same mistake Republicans in the 19th Century did. By Jamelle Bouie](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xNC9vcGluaW9uL3N1cHJlbWUtY291cnQtcmVmb3JtLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjEwMTQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzQ1ODQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA5OTQ2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjRcJPSWO8_vyHUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlK9TCP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xNC9vcGluaW9uL3N1cHJlbWUtY291cnQtcmVmb3JtLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMjEwMTQmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzQ1ODQmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA5OTQ2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjRcJPSWO8_vyHUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Guest Essay Xi Jinping and the Perils of Overreach His next term could be a rough one for China as problems mount for an inflexible leader. 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