Upshot: Hanging Up on Pollsters

Nearing the end of polling by telephone [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P4QlAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIyMTAxMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDUxMCZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnByb2R1Y3RDb2RlPVVQJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk4NTYmdGU9MSZ1cmk9bnl0JTNBJTJGJTJGbmV3c2xldHRlciUyRmNmZWYwMzc1LTgxNDEtNTMzYS1iMjU2LTY0ODIyYjY1YWI0ZSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFfjVIY7kc5VNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0StaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMDEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTEwJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTg1NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0V-NUhjuRzlU1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIyMTAxM1cDbnl0QgpjRX41SGO5HOVTUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [NYTimes.com/Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0SyaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjEwMTMmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzQ1MTAmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA5ODU2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjRX41SGO5HOVTUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) October 13, 2022 [[Article Image] Ryan Carl](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMi91cHNob3QvbWlkdGVybXMtcG9sbGluZy1waG9uZS1jYWxscy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMDEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTEwJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTg1NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0V-NUhjuRzlU1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Who in the World Is Still Answering Pollsters’ Phone Calls? Response rates suggest the “death of telephone polling” is getting closer. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMi91cHNob3QvbWlkdGVybXMtcG9sbGluZy1waG9uZS1jYWxscy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMDEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTEwJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTg1NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0V-NUhjuRzlU1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have a compelling data set you’d like us to pursue, send it to [dear.upshot@nytimes.com](mailto:dear.upshot@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS [[Article Image] Ryan Carl](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMS91cHNob3QvcmVwdWJsaWNhbnMtbWlkdGVybXMtaG91c2UtYW5hbHlzaXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIyMTAxMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDUxMCZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk4NTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFfjVIY7kc5VNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Why Republicans Could Prevail in the Popular Vote but Lose in the House In a potential reversal of recent structural trends, there’s a small chance of something we haven’t seen since 1952. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMS91cHNob3QvcmVwdWJsaWNhbnMtbWlkdGVybXMtaG91c2UtYW5hbHlzaXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIyMTAxMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDUxMCZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk4NTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFfjVIY7kc5VNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [[Article Image] Verónica G. Cárdenas for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMi9vcGluaW9uL21pZHRlcm1zLWxhdGluby12b3RlcnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIyMTAxMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDUxMCZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk4NTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFfjVIY7kc5VNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Guest Essay The ‘Sleeping Giant’ That May Decide the Midterms The choices made by Latino voters will be crucial to the outcome in a disproportionate share of Senate battleground states and key House races. By Thomas B. Edsall](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8xMC8xMi9vcGluaW9uL21pZHRlcm1zLWxhdGluby12b3RlcnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIyMTAxMyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03NDUxMCZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDk4NTYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmNFfjVIY7kc5VNSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-universal-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDExJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIyMTAxM1cDbnl0QgpjRX41SGO5HOVTUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Subscribe Today We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. 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Playoff Picture: Each Team’s Path to the Postseason An interactive calculator that lets you explore every team’s path to the N.F.L. playoffs. By Josh Katz, Kevin Quealy and Rumsey Taylor](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi91cHNob3QvbmZsLXBsYXlvZmYtcGljdHVyZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMDEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTEwJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTg1NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0V-NUhjuRzlU1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [[Article Image] Saumya Khandelwal for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TyaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMC8wNC9jbGltYXRlL3NvdXRoLWFzaWEtbW9uc29vbi1jbGltYXRlLWNoYW5nZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMDEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTEwJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTg1NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0V-NUhjuRzlU1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [The Monsoon Is Becoming More Extreme South Asia’s monsoon is inextricably linked, culturally and economically, to much of Asia. Climate change is making it increasingly violent and erratic. By Henry Fountain, Zach Levitt and Jeremy White](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0TyaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMi8xMC8wNC9jbGltYXRlL3NvdXRoLWFzaWEtbW9uc29vbi1jbGltYXRlLWNoYW5nZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMDEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTEwJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTg1NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0V-NUhjuRzlU1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Like this email? Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up [here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlKrp-P0S_aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbmV3c2xldHRlcnMvdXBzaG90P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIxMDEzJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTc0NTEwJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwOTg1NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKY0V-NUhjuRzlU1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). 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