Upshot: A Midterms Newsletter From Nate Cohn

Introducing The Tilt [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlAcqUP4QlAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIyMDkxMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD03MTcyNyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnByb2R1Y3RDb2RlPVVQJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xMDYwNzgmdGU9MSZ1cmk9bnl0JTNBJTJGJTJGbmV3c2xldHRlciUyRjVhYjNjMzUxLWNjYjYtNTVhNC1iNjlhLWY0ZGQ2YWM2NTllZiZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmMXlEUfY43yPwRSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlAcqUP0StaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIwOTEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTcxNzI3Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwNjA3OCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYxeURR9jjfI_BFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlAcqUP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIyMDkxMlcDbnl0QgpjF5RFH2ON8j8EUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [NYTimes.com/Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlAcqUP0SyaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjA5MTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzE3Mjcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA2MDc4JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjF5RFH2ON8j8EUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) September 12, 2022 [[Article Image] Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlAcqUP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wOS8xMi91cHNob3QvcG9sbGluZy1taWR0ZXJtcy1lbGVjdGlvbnMtdGlsdC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIwOTEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTcxNzI3Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwNjA3OCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYxeURR9jjfI_BFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Introducing ‘The Tilt,’ a Newsletter About Elections and Polling Political analysis in your inbox, twice a week or more, for Times subscribers. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlAcqUP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wOS8xMi91cHNob3QvcG9sbGluZy1taWR0ZXJtcy1lbGVjdGlvbnMtdGlsdC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjIwOTEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTcxNzI3Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTEwNjA3OCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYxeURR9jjfI_BFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [[Article Image] Dustin Franz for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlAcqUP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wOS8xMi91cHNob3QvcG9sbGluZy1taWR0ZXJtcy13YXJuaW5nLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjA5MTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzE3Mjcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA2MDc4JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjF5RFH2ON8j8EUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again Democrats are polling well in exactly the places where surveys missed most in 2020. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlAcqUP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMi8wOS8xMi91cHNob3QvcG9sbGluZy1taWR0ZXJtcy13YXJuaW5nLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMjA5MTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NzE3Mjcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTA2MDc4JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpjF5RFH2ON8j8EUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have a compelling data set you’d like us to pursue, send it to [dear.upshot@nytimes.com](mailto:dear.upshot@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). 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