Opinion Today: An election simulation, a $53,000 vote and the debt-ceiling saga

David Shor is predicting our political future. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP4Q4AWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9hYlZhcmlhbnRJZD0xJmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcHJvZHVjdENvZGUlM0RUWT0mcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXJpPW55dCUzQSUyRiUyRm5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlMkYyOTdhOWNmMS0zNzBmLTUxM2ItOWZkNi01NDIwOWU3NDU1MDcmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0SvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMTM5JmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIxMTAwOFcDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [Read more from Opinion](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0S-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9vcGluaW9uP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) October 8, 2021 [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0S8aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvZXpyYS1rbGVpbj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) By [Ezra Klein](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0S8aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvZXpyYS1rbGVpbj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Opinion Columnist David Shor started modeling elections in 2008, when he was a 20-something blogger, and he proved good at it. By 2012, he was deep inside Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, putting together the fabled “Golden Report,” which modeled the election daily, and ultimately called the popular vote to within a tenth of a percentage point and correctly predicted every state but Ohio. Now he’s scared. Since 2019, he’s been building something he calls “the power simulator.” It’s a model that predicts every House and Senate and presidential race between now and 2032 to try and map out the likeliest future for American politics. He’s been obsessively running and refining these simulations over the past two years. And they keep telling him the same thing. “We’re screwed in the Senate,” he told me. Only he didn’t use the word screwed. Let’s say Senate Democrats have a pretty good year for the in-power party in 2022 and win 51 percent of the total Senate vote. Shor’s model suggests they’ll lose a seat, and so the Senate. But it’s 2024 where things get very grim for them. Let’s say they win 51 percent of the vote again. Shor’s model predicts they’ll lose seven seats. This is how bad the Democrats’ Senate woes are: They could win a majority of voters in the next two elections and end with only 42 seats in the Senate. As frustrated as Democrats are by the hammerlock Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have on their agenda now, this may be the high watermark of power the party holds for the next decade. [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0RsaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTk3ODUmbGk9VFkmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPVRZXzIwMjExMDA4VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~ We’ve built [a version of Shor’s model](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TyaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2RlbW9jcmF0cy1kYXZpZC1zaG9yLWVkdWNhdGlvbi1wb2xhcml6YXRpb24uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) that you can use to simulate the next two Senate elections yourself. It allows you to see what he sees. The problem Democrats face is twofold: First, the country is polarizing by education, and Democrats’ more college-educated base is clustered in cities and suburbs, while the Senate favors rural voters, and thus the Republican Party. Second, voters used to cheerfully split their tickets, voting for a president of one party and a senator of another. But that’s become rare, so it’s nearly impossible for individual Democratic Senate candidates to escape the reputation of their party. Atop this analysis, Shor has developed a theory of what Democrats need to do to prevent electoral Armageddon. And it begins with recognizing that the Democratic Party’s biggest problem is, well, the Democratic Party. This theory has made Shor one of the most influential and controversial figures in Democratic politics. But he’s kicked off a debate Democrats need to have, and [it’s one I profile here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TyaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2RlbW9jcmF0cy1kYXZpZC1zaG9yLWVkdWNhdGlvbi1wb2xhcml6YXRpb24uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). [[Article Image] Cristina Daura](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TyaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2RlbW9jcmF0cy1kYXZpZC1zaG9yLWVkdWNhdGlvbi1wb2xhcml6YXRpb24uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Ezra Klein David Shor Is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear His forecasting model shows a looming disaster for Senate Democrats. Are they going to do anything about it? By Ezra Klein](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TyaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2RlbW9jcmF0cy1kYXZpZC1zaG9yLWVkdWNhdGlvbi1wb2xhcml6YXRpb24uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Interested in exploring how race and language shape our politics and culture? Join John McWhorter and Jane Coaston for a discussion — and a special live performance — in this virtual event on Thursday, Oct. 14, exclusively for Times subscribers. [R.S.V.P. here to attend.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8wOS8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3dva2Utam9obi1tY3dob3J0ZXItbGFuZ3VhZ2UtZXZlbnQuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-1) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAxODEyJmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIxMTAwOFcDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Here’s what we’re focusing on today: Editors’ Picks [When It Costs $53,000 to Vote Outstanding fines prevent too many Floridians from voting. 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By Frank Bruni](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL3RleGFzLXBvbGl0aWNzLWdyZWctYWJib3R0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL3RleGFzLXBvbGl0aWNzLWdyZWctYWJib3R0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Jamelle Bouie Joe Manchin Should Stop Talking About ‘Entitlement’ And the left should start. By Jamelle Bouie](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL21hbmNoaW4tZW50aXRsZW1lbnQtYW1lcmljYW4tZmFtaWxpZXMtcGxhbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL21hbmNoaW4tZW50aXRsZW1lbnQtYW1lcmljYW4tZmFtaWxpZXMtcGxhbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Spencer Bokat-Lindell Why Does Congress Keep Playing Chicken With the Debt Ceiling? Congress appears to have averted economic disaster for now, but only by punting it to early December. By Spencer Bokat-Lindell](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2RlYnQtY2VpbGluZy1jb25ncmVzcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2RlYnQtY2VpbGluZy1jb25ncmVzcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Guest Essay Let Me Tell You What It Was Like to Work at Ozy What went wrong at the ambitious media start-up? By Eugene S. Robinson](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TYaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL296eS1jYXJsb3Mtd2F0c29uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TYaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL296eS1jYXJsb3Mtd2F0c29uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-2) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzI2NTM3JmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDIxMTAwOFcDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Ideas [Paul Krugman What if Things Are About to Get Better? Early signs of improvement on Covid, containers and crime. By Paul Krugman](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL3JlY292ZXJ5LWNvdmlkLWVjb25vbXkuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL3JlY292ZXJ5LWNvdmlkLWVjb25vbXkuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [David Brooks Here’s the Mind-Set That’s Tearing Us Apart When all you see is groups, and not people. By David Brooks](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2Vzc2VudGlhbGlzbS1zdGVyZW90eXBlcy1iaWFzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2Vzc2VudGlhbGlzbS1zdGVyZW90eXBlcy1iaWFzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Michelle Cottle Louis DeJoy Is Doing Something Progressives Like The Postal Service needs big reforms. It’s getting small ones instead. By Michelle Cottle](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2xvdWlzLWRlam95LXVzLXBvc3RhbC1zZXJ2aWNlLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2xvdWlzLWRlam95LXVzLXBvc3RhbC1zZXJ2aWNlLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Farah Stockman What Killed the Blue-Collar Struggle for Social Justice For Americans without a college degree, the labor movement, the civil rights movement and the women’s liberation movement boiled down to jobs. By Farah Stockman](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2dsb2JhbGl6YXRpb24td29yay10cnVtcC1zb2NpYWwtanVzdGljZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2dsb2JhbGl6YXRpb24td29yay10cnVtcC1zb2NpYWwtanVzdGljZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Jay Caspian Kang The Enduring Importance of the 1965 Immigration Act How Asians arrived in America. By Jay Caspian Kang](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2FzaWFuLWFtZXJpY2Fucy0xOTY1LWltbWlncmF0aW9uLWFjdC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2FzaWFuLWFtZXJpY2Fucy0xOTY1LWltbWlncmF0aW9uLWFjdC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjExMDA4Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQyMzMzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcwOTk1JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgphXyo0YGE_vW5RUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Guest Essay To Combat Gun Violence, Clean Up the Neighborhood Gun violence interventions often focus on high-risk people. To achieve meaningful change, policy makers should focus on high-risk places, too. By Eugenia C. South](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2d1bi12aW9sZW5jZS1iaWRlbi1waGlsYWRlbHBoaWEuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2d1bi12aW9sZW5jZS1iaWRlbi1waGlsYWRlbHBoaWEuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Opinion Audio [What if We’ll Never Truly Be Free? The poet and theorist Maggie Nelson examines freedom and its limitations. By ‘The Ezra Klein Show’](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2V6cmEta2xlaW4tcG9kY2FzdC1tYWdnaWUtbmVsc29uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TnaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wOC9vcGluaW9uL2V6cmEta2xlaW4tcG9kY2FzdC1tYWdnaWUtbmVsc29uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) What You’re Saying [letters Behind the Scenes of the Events of Jan. 6 John Eastman, a lawyer who advised Donald Trump, and others discuss Jan. 6. Also: A non-coup pledge; missing Yazidis; clerical celibacy; taxing the ultrarich.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvamFuLTYtY2FwaXRvbC1yaW90Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMS8xMC8wNy9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvamFuLTYtY2FwaXRvbC1yaW90Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) Subscribe Today New York Times Opinion curates a wide range of views, inviting rich discussion and debate that helps readers analyze the world. This work is made possible with the support of subscribers. [Please consider subscribing to The Times with this special offer](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TLaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpcHRpb24_Y2FtcGFpZ25JZD05S1hGVSZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDIxMTAwOCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MjMzMyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MDk5NSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKYV8qNGBhP71uUVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). Games Here is [today’s Mini Crossword](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TDaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY3Jvc3N3b3Jkcy9nYW1lL21pbmk_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) and [Spelling Bee](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjQrkqP0TDaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vcHV6emxlcy9zcGVsbGluZy1iZWU_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyMTEwMDgmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDIzMzMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzA5OTUmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmFfKjRgYT-9blFSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). 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