Upshot: What Went Wrong With Polling?

Also, it's time to sign up for health insurance [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP4QkAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTExMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNDA0MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnByb2R1Y3RDb2RlPVVQJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00NDMyMyZ0ZT0xJnVyaT1ueXQlM0ElMkYlMkZuZXdzbGV0dGVyJTJGMTcwNWE5YWUtNzg2Ny01ZTQ4LWIyNzktZGY4YmFlZTFiYTE2JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKACynWK1fkJwULFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0SsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjAxMTEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTI0MDQxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQ0MzIzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTExMlcDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [NYTimes.com/Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0SxaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDExMTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjQwNDEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDQzMjMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAsp1itX5CcFCxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) November 12, 2020 [[Article Image] Janie Osborne for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TYaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMC91cHNob3QvcG9sbHMtd2hhdC13ZW50LXdyb25nLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDExMTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjQwNDEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDQzMjMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAsp1itX5CcFCxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [What Went Wrong With Polling? Some Early Theories Pollsters thought they had learned from the errors of 2016. It’s possible that they did, and that this election reflects new problems. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TYaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMC91cHNob3QvcG9sbHMtd2hhdC13ZW50LXdyb25nLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDExMTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjQwNDEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDQzMjMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAsp1itX5CcFCxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [[Article Image] Joshua Bright for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TcaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMC91cHNob3QvY292aWQtdGVzdGluZy1kb2N0b3ItZmVlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjAxMTEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTI0MDQxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQ0MzIzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [These Towns Trusted a Doctor to Set Up Covid Testing. Sample Patient Fee: $1,944. 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Playoff Simulator Is Back Here’s what’s new about the seventh edition, and how it works. By Josh Katz, Kevin Quealy and Rumsey Taylor](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TYaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMS91cHNob3QvbmZsLXBsYXlvZmYtc2ltdWxhdG9yLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDExMTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjQwNDEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDQzMjMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAsp1itX5CcFCxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDExJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTExMlcDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDEzJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTExMlcDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDEyJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTExMlcDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [How Did Trump Do in Counties That Backed Him in 2016? 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It Depends on the Measure By different metrics, all sorts of locations in the United States are deeply troubling, from Minot, N.D., to New York City. By Mitch Smith, Amy Harmon, Lucy Tompkins and Thomas Fuller](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMi91cy9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1jcmlzaXMtdW5pdGVkLXN0YXRlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjAxMTEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTI0MDQxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQ0MzIzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMi91cy9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1jcmlzaXMtdW5pdGVkLXN0YXRlcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjAxMTEyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTI0MDQxJm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQ0MzIzJnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). 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By Jed Kolko](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMS91cHNob3QvZWxlY3Rpb24tcmVkLWJsdWUtZWNvbm9taWMtZGl2aWRlLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDExMTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjQwNDEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDQzMjMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAsp1itX5CcFCxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMS91cHNob3QvZWxlY3Rpb24tcmVkLWJsdWUtZWNvbm9taWMtZGl2aWRlLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDExMTImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjQwNDEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDQzMjMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAsp1itX5CcFCxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) IN CASE YOU MISSED IT [[Article Image] Justin Lane/EPA, via Shutterstock](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMC9vcGluaW9uL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLXZhY2NpbmUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTExMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNDA0MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00NDMyMyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKACynWK1fkJwULFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Don’t Get Too Excited About the Coronavirus Vaccine It’s unmitigated good news. 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Carroll and Nicholas Bagley](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMC9vcGluaW9uL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLXZhY2NpbmUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTExMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNDA0MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00NDMyMyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKACynWK1fkJwULFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [[Article Image] John Moore/Getty Images](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMS9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L3VuZW1wbG95bWVudC1iZW5lZml0cy1jdXRvZmYuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTExMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNDA0MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00NDMyMyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKACynWK1fkJwULFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Millions Face Loss of Jobless Aid: ‘Without It, I’m Dead in the Water’ Emergency federal programs to assist the unemployed in the pandemic will expire at year’s end if there is no congressional action. By Ben Casselman](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xMS9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L3VuZW1wbG95bWVudC1iZW5lZml0cy1jdXRvZmYuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTExMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yNDA0MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00NDMyMyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKACynWK1fkJwULFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-1) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTE5NDU0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTExMlcDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTE5NDU1JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTExMlcDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhj92nP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTE5NDU2JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTExMlcDbnl0QgoALKdYrV-QnBQsUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Like this email? 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