Upshot: A Look at the Latest in Polling

Also, learning from Obama-era mistakes on economic stimulus [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP4QkAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnByb2R1Y3RDb2RlPVVQJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVyaT1ueXQlM0ElMkYlMkZuZXdzbGV0dGVyJTJGYjY0NjNhNjYtNWNiOC01YjEyLThjNTMtYmMzMGMxYmFhMGI0JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0SsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjAxMDIyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIzMzc3Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTQxODg2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAMh2bkV8EUdX8Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTAyMlcDbnl0QgoAMh2bkV8EUdX8Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [NYTimes.com/Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0SxaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) October 22, 2020 [[Article Image] The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP4QPAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2xpdmUvMjAyMC9wcmVzaWRlbnRpYWwtcG9sbHMtdHJ1bXAtYmlkZW4vYS1zbGlnaHQtdGlnaHRlbmluZy1idXQtYS1iaWctYmlkZW4tbGVhZC1iZWZvcmUtdGhlLWRlYmF0ZT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [A slight tightening but a big Biden lead before the debate. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP4QPAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2xpdmUvMjAyMC9wcmVzaWRlbnRpYWwtcG9sbHMtdHJ1bXAtYmlkZW4vYS1zbGlnaHQtdGlnaHRlbmluZy1idXQtYS1iaWctYmlkZW4tbGVhZC1iZWZvcmUtdGhlLWRlYmF0ZT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [[Article Image]  ](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8yMC91cHNob3QvcG9sbC1nZW9yZ2lhLWJpZGVuLXRydW1wLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Democrats Gain in Georgia Senate Races as Presidential Race Remains Tied Our latest survey shows a shift toward Biden among college-educated white voters, but surprising Trump gains among nonwhite voters. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8yMC91cHNob3QvcG9sbC1nZW9yZ2lhLWJpZGVuLXRydW1wLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [[Article Image] Doug Mills/The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TRaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8xOS91cHNob3QvYmlkZW4tc3RpbXVsdXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [How Failures of the Obama-Era Stimulus Could Guide a Biden Administration One crucial lesson: aim big, because there may be only one chance, and an overheating economy is easier to fix than a halting recovery. By Neil Irwin](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TRaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8xOS91cHNob3QvYmlkZW4tc3RpbXVsdXMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDExJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTAyMlcDbnl0QgoAMh2bkV8EUdX8Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDEzJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTAyMlcDbnl0QgoAMh2bkV8EUdX8Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDEyJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDIwMTAyMlcDbnl0QgoAMh2bkV8EUdX8Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [[Article Image] Lucy Jones](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8yMi9vcGluaW9uL2NvdmlkLXZvdGluZy1zYWZldHkuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)   [Three Steps for Safe Pandemic Voting Don’t wait until Election Day: Make a plan, vote early if you can and take the usual coronavirus precautions. By James E. Clyburn and Krutika Kuppalli](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8yMi9vcGluaW9uL2NvdmlkLXZvdGluZy1zYWZldHkuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [[Article Image] Lauren Justice for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC8xMC8yMS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy93aXNjb25zaW4tdm90aW5nLWxpbmUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)   [Wisconsin Lines Up to Vote. How Long Did They Wait? Voters in Milwaukee share their concerns and motivations on the first day of early in-person voting in the state. Photographs by Lauren Justice](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC8xMC8yMS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy93aXNjb25zaW4tdm90aW5nLWxpbmUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have a compelling data set you’d like us to pursue, send it to [dear.upshot@nytimes.com](mailto:dear.upshot@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS [The Relentless Shrinking of Trump’s Base As the population of white voters without college degrees continues to decline, these charts show how demographics are not on President Trump’s side in this election. By Ford Fessenden and Lazaro Gamio](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC8xMC8yMi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC12b3RlcnMtZGVtb2dyYXBoaWNzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Thumbnail](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC8xMC8yMi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC12b3RlcnMtZGVtb2dyYXBoaWNzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [studies show How an Ill-Fated Fishing Voyage Helped Us Understand Covid-19 The threat posed by the virus makes randomized controlled trials extremely difficult. That means “real-life experiments” are especially important. By Kim Tingley](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8yMC9tYWdhemluZS9jb3ZpZC1uYXR1cmFsLWV4cGVyaW1lbnRzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [Article Thumbnail](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TeaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8yMC9tYWdhemluZS9jb3ZpZC1uYXR1cmFsLWV4cGVyaW1lbnRzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) IN CASE YOU MISSED IT [[Article Image]  ](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC9jbGltYXRlL3RydW1wLWVudmlyb25tZW50LXJvbGxiYWNrcy1saXN0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)   [The Trump Administration Is Reversing Nearly 100 Environmental Rules. Here’s the Full List. The White House has dismantled major climate and environmental policies focused on clean air, water, wildlife and toxic chemicals. Here’s how it adds up. By Nadja Popovich, Livia Albeck-Ripka and Kendra Pierre-Louis](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC9jbGltYXRlL3RydW1wLWVudmlyb25tZW50LXJvbGxiYWNrcy1saXN0Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyMDEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjMzNzcmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NDE4ODYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgAyHZuRXwRR1fxSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) [[Article Image] Bryan R. Smith/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhdCAdP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMC8yMS9oZWFsdGgvY29yb25hdmlydXMtc3RhdGlzdGljcy1kZWF0aHMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDIwMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMzM3NyZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD00MTg4NiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKADIdm5FfBFHV_FIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)   [The Coronavirus Has Claimed 2.5 Million Years of Potential Life in the U.S., Study Finds A Harvard researcher added up the number of years that Americans who died from Covid-19 might have lived had they reached a typical life expectancy. By Katherine J. 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