On Politics: A Republican Panic Button

Could Democrats be heading for a landslide in November? [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P4Q1AWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcHJvZHVjdENvZGU9Q04mcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXJpPW55dCUzQSUyRiUyRm5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlMkYyNzg2NGQ4OS1iMzg0LTU0NDQtOGIxYS1iOGUzMzk0N2I5ZWImdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0S9aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjExJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [On Politics](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TNaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9wb2xpdGljcz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) July 27, 2020 [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TKaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvbGlzYS1sZXJlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) By [Lisa Lerer](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TKaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvbGlzYS1sZXJlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) Politics Newsletter Writer Hi. Welcome to [On Politics](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TSaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc3BvdGxpZ2h0L29uLXBvbGl0aWNzP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host. Are Republicans pressing the panic button? Last week, President Trump [revived his coronavirus briefings](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0T0aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNy8yMC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1icmllZmluZ3MuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) and canceled the Republican National Convention, a tacit acknowledgment of the reality of a virus wreaking havoc on the country — and on his political standing. In Congress, Senate Republicans rejected several of Mr. Trump’s demands for the next pandemic recovery package. Across the country, Republican governors [are contradicting](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P4QBAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjAvMDcvMTkvdXMvcG9saXRpY3MvcmVwdWJsaWNhbnMtY29udHJhZGljdC10cnVtcC1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) the president’s push to reopen. Top party donors are privately discussing [whether to redirect funds](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNy8yMC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC1wb2xscy1zZW5hdGUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) away from Mr. Trump and toward their imperiled Senate candidates. The usual suspects are separating themselves even more aggressively. Former President George W. Bush [won’t support the re-election of Mr. Trump](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0T3aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNi8wNi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC1iaWRlbi1yZXB1YmxpY2Fucy12b3RlcnMuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~), nor will Senator Mitt Romney of Utah. Senator Susan Collins of Maine, one of the most endangered Republican incumbents up for re-election this year, [is also declining](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0T2aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY25uLmNvbS8yMDIwLzA3LzIxL3BvbGl0aWNzL3N1c2FuLWNvbGxpbnMtdHJ1bXAtcmVlbGVjdGlvbi9pbmRleC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) to support Mr. Trump, as is Maryland’s governor, Larry Hogan. Last week, the Republican mayor of Miami [told me the same](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0T5aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNy8yMi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9taWFtaS1tYXlvci1mcmFuY2lzLXN1YXJlei1tYXNrcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). Certainly, there’s reason for Republicans to worry. As of this weekend, there are less than 100 days to go before the election. And right now, all the signs point toward a Democratic landslide. [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RsaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MzMzNTEmbGk9Q04mbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOXzIwMjAwNzI3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NDUyODUwJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTgzOTIwJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Last Thursday, the Cook Political Report [predicted](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P4QZAWh0dHBzOi8vY29va3BvbGl0aWNhbC5jb20vYW5hbHlzaXMvc2VuYXRlL3NlbmF0ZS1vdmVydmlldy9hbG1vc3QtMTAwLWRheXMtb3V0LWRlbW9jcmF0cy1hcmUtZmF2b3JlZC10YWtlLWJhY2stc2VuYXRlP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) that Democrats were slightly favored to win the Senate majority. A week earlier, the political forecasters there shifted ratings in 20 House districts to Democrats. “I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction,” [tweeted](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TeaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9SZWRpc3RyaWN0L3N0YXR1cy8xMjg0MTA2NjQ5MjU5NzEyNTE4P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) Dave Wasserman, Cook’s House editor. The problem facing Republican candidates is simple: Mr. Trump. His abysmal numbers are dragging them down, from Maine to Arizona. So far, there’s little sign that’s changing. Joseph R. Biden Jr. has held a nearly double-digit lead [in an average of polls](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TraHR0cHM6Ly9wcm9qZWN0cy5maXZldGhpcnR5ZWlnaHQuY29tL3BvbGxzL3ByZXNpZGVudC1nZW5lcmFsL25hdGlvbmFsLz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) for more than a month. The last time a candidate sustained such a large advantage for so long was nearly 25 years ago, when Bill Clinton led Bob Dole in 1996. The [University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P4QLAWh0dHA6Ly9jZW50ZXJmb3Jwb2xpdGljcy5vcmcvY3J5c3RhbGJhbGwvYXJ0aWNsZXMvdGhlLWVsZWN0b3JhbC1jb2xsZWdlLXRoZS1mcmluZ2Utb2YtdGhlLW1hcC1leHBhbmRzLz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) recently moved seven traditional Republican strongholds — Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina and Utah — into the slate of potentially competitive presidential races. Last week, Cook moved Florida, traditionally the country’s largest battleground prize, from a tossup to favoring Mr. Biden. [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-1) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjA4JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjA5JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTY0NzIzJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ OK, I’d be remiss if I left out the very obvious caveat to all this forecasting. Of course, the election is far from over. And of course, the dynamics could change. (In The Atlantic, Peter Nicholas does [a good job at laying out some of the factors](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P4QAAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRoZWF0bGFudGljLmNvbS9wb2xpdGljcy9hcmNoaXZlLzIwMjAvMDcvaG93LXRydW1wLWNvdWxkLXdpbi1yZWVsZWN0aW9uLzYxMjIwNS8_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDA3MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjA2OTImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mtd2l0aC1saXNhLWxlcmVyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0zNDUwNiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKACt_VR9fCBa7MlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) that could cut in Mr. Trump’s favor. The problems with voting are certainly worth watching.) It does not, however, seem as if Mr. Trump’s advisers have some grand plan to shift the current trajectory. In this moment of peril, his campaign is turning to a rationale long invoked by anxious Democrats: [But 2016!](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNS8xNS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy90cnVtcC12cy1iaWRlbi1wb2xscy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) In a briefing with reporters on Friday, Mr. Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, argued that much of the polling data was flawed, displaying slide after slide of surveys from four years ago predicting Hillary Clinton would win. “These trends are going to go unnoticed until election night, when we’re right and they’re wrong,” Mr. Stepien said. [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-2) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzIzMjk3JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzIzMjk4JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzIzMzAwJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDcyN1cDbnl0QgoAK39VH18IFrsyUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Other Republicans believe they can still turn the race around. They’re cheered by the president’s more sober tone last week and the decision to cancel the Republican National Convention in Florida, an event that would have certainly led to weeks of negative media coverage and possibly another wave of infections in one of the states hit hardest by the pandemic. “There’s a long way to go. Trump’s numbers are obviously down, but they are going to come back,” said Scott Reed, the chief strategist for the United States Chamber of Commerce and a longtime G.O.P. strategist. “This will be a tight race at the end of the day.” The reality is that Republicans are rapidly running out of time. While there are 99 days to go until Election Day, there are only 53 days before early voting begins in Minnesota and South Dakota. Other states — including Michigan and Virginia — quickly follow. Considering that we’re nearly two months into [Mr. Trump’s turnaround strategy](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0ThaHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nb29nbGUuY29tL2NhbGVuZGFyL3IvbW9udGgvMjAyMC83LzE_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDA3MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjA2OTImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mtd2l0aC1saXNhLWxlcmVyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0zNDUwNiZ0YWI9bWMmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), seven weeks doesn’t seem like much time to revive his political fortunes. Drop us a line! We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More than a dozen V.P. contenders Mr. Biden is still deliberating over his choice of running mate. While the former vice president has said he hopes to name the woman he’ll pick for the ticket on Aug. 1, many Democrats expect the announcement to come a bit later in the month. Mr. Biden is not known for his quick decision-making and many of his strategists see no reason to shake up the dynamics of the race, given the current political landscape, which shows him in a strong lead. We’ve been tracking all of the candidates and are out with [a new guide](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P4QTAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2FydGljbGUvYmlkZW4tdmljZS1wcmVzaWRlbnQtMjAyMC5odG1sP2FjdGlvbj1jbGljayZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZtb2R1bGU9VG9wK1N0b3JpZXMmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mtd2l0aC1saXNhLWxlcmVyJnBndHlwZT1Ib21lcGFnZSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) gaming out the prospects of more than a dozen top contenders. Expect to see some names you know and maybe a few that are less familiar. Whom do you think Mr. Biden should pick? Do the times call for a Black woman on the ticket? Are you set on a senator? And is experience what matters most? Let us know at onpolitics@nytimes.com. Please include your name and location and we might feature your note in a future edition. WHAT TO READ TONIGHT [[Article Image] Noriko Hayashi for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNy8yNy9idXNpbmVzcy9mYXNoaW9uLW1hc2tzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDA3MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjA2OTImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mtd2l0aC1saXNhLWxlcmVyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0zNDUwNiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKACt_VR9fCBa7MlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)   [We’ll Be Wearing Masks for a While. Why Not Make Them Nice? Motorized air purifiers and heated sanitizers. Breathable fabrics and chic prints. With face coverings here to stay, consumers are starting to demand more than cheap throwaways. By Ben Dooley and Hisako Ueno](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0TvaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNy8yNy9idXNpbmVzcy9mYXNoaW9uLW1hc2tzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDA3MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MjA2OTImbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mtd2l0aC1saXNhLWxlcmVyJnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0zNDUwNiZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKACt_VR9fCBa7MlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [[Article Image] Nick Cote for The New York Times](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0T2aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNy8yNy91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9tb250YW5hLXNlbmF0ZS1idWxsb2NrLWRhaW5lcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)   [Why Montana Is a Test Case for Democrats’ Winning the Senate The race between Steve Daines, the Republican incumbent, and Steve Bullock could prove crucial in a year when Democrats need to win in conservative-leaning states where President Trump may still prevail. By Jonathan Martin](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P0T2aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wNy8yNy91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9tb250YW5hLXNlbmF0ZS1idWxsb2NrLWRhaW5lcy5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2JmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwNzI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTIwNjkyJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzLXdpdGgtbGlzYS1sZXJlciZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MzQ1MDYmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) … Seriously [Why so serious, New York City?](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRhAdp_P4RMAWh0dHBzOi8vbnlwb3N0LmNvbS8yMDIwLzA3LzI2L2pva2VyLXNwb3R0ZWQtamV0LXNraWluZy1vbi10aGUtZWFzdC1yaXZlci8_X190d2l0dGVyX2ltcHJlc3Npb249dHJ1ZSZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDcyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0yMDY5MiZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcy13aXRoLWxpc2EtbGVyZXImcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTM0NTA2JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249U29jaWFsRmxvdyZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPVNvY2lhbEZsb3cmdXRtX3NvdXJjZT1OWVBUd2l0dGVyVwNueXRCCgArf1UfXwgWuzJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) Were you forwarded this newsletter? 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