The best-case and worst-case outcomes for the coronavirus

Will 2.2 million die? Or will we quickly recover? Maybe it’s up to us. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP4Q6AWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj91cmk9bnl0JTNBJTJGJTJGbmV3c2xldHRlciUyRmFkZmEzZTMzLWFjMWEtNDAyMy1iYWZhLTIwZjQ0MTA4YzhkOSZwcm9kdWN0Q29kZT1OSyZ0ZT0xJm5sPW5pY2hvbGFzLWtyaXN0b2YmZW1jPWVkaXRfbmtfMjAyMDAzMjAmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY5Mzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMjQyNiZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTJlZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMzIwVwNueXRCCgAfYth0XkCShrJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0S6aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP3RlPTEmbmw9bmljaG9sYXMta3Jpc3RvZiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ua18yMDIwMDMyMCZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD00NSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjkzNyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIyNDI2JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzIwVwNueXRCCgAfYth0XkCShrJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYxOTkwJmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDMyMFcDbnl0QgoAH2LYdF5AkoayUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [NYTimes.com/Kristof](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TQaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9jb2x1bW4vbmljaG9sYXMta3Jpc3RvZj90ZT0xJm5sPW5pY2hvbGFzLWtyaXN0b2YmZW1jPWVkaXRfbmtfMjAyMDAzMjAmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY5Mzcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMjQyNiZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMyMFcDbnl0QgoAH2LYdF5AkoayUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) March 20, 2020 Medical personnel waited Tuesday for the next patient at a Seattle drive-through coronavirus testing station.Elaine Thompson/Associated Press [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TRaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY29sdW1uL25pY2hvbGFzLWtyaXN0b2Y_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMzIwJmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2OTM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjI0MjYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMjBXA255dEIKAB9i2HReQJKGslIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) By [Nicholas Kristof](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TRaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY29sdW1uL25pY2hvbGFzLWtyaXN0b2Y_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMzIwJmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2OTM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjI0MjYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMjBXA255dEIKAB9i2HReQJKGslIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Opinion Columnist I’ve spent the last couple of weeks talking to epidemiologists and public health experts about what the best case and worst case might look like for Covid-19, and I put what I learned into my latest column. [Check it out.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLW91dGNvbWVzLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMzIwJmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2OTM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjI0MjYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMjBXA255dEIKAB9i2HReQJKGslIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) The best case, in a nutshell, is that viruses often mutate to become more virulent, some viruses fade in the summer, there are some promising treatments in trials that we may be able to use before long, and countries like South Korea and Taiwan — and perhaps Japan — have managed to break the back of the virus. It’s also promising that Washington State has seen new cases stabilize. The worst case? It’s that all of these things are uncertain, and our trajectory looks more like Italy (with an eight-day lag) than like South Korea. And Neil Ferguson, an eminent epidemiologist and expert on modeling contagions, has a worst case of 2.2 million deaths in the United States — plus, he told me that his best case for America is 1.1 million deaths. When someone like him has a “best case” of more than a million deaths, that sounds pretty dreadful to me. I’m particularly concerned by the stress on hospitals and shortages of personal protective equipment in hospitals. A Florida hospital has run out of masks and is inquiring about using homemade cloth masks [(the C.D.C. actually says that’s OK)](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2RjLmdvdi9jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy8yMDE5LW5jb3YvaGNwL3BwZS1zdHJhdGVneS9mYWNlLW1hc2tzLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMzIwJmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2OTM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjI0MjYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMjBXA255dEIKAB9i2HReQJKGslIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). The U.S. government seems to have simply abandoned front-line health workers. A Seattle doctor tells me that she and her colleagues are making preparations in case they die — wills, planning for who will care for their children, and so on. We all owe the doctors, nurses, technicians, janitors and other staff at front-line hospitals. [Here’s the column.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLW91dGNvbWVzLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMzIwJmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2OTM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjI0MjYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMjBXA255dEIKAB9i2HReQJKGslIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYxOTg3JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDMyMFcDbnl0QgoAH2LYdF5AkoayUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYxOTg5JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDMyMFcDbnl0QgoAH2LYdF5AkoayUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYxOTg4JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDMyMFcDbnl0QgoAH2LYdF5AkoayUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ China and the Pandemic I have complicated feelings about China. In 1989, I watched the government mow down protesters with machine guns, and I’ve had friends imprisoned and tortured by the government. But I’ve also seen China lift more people out of poverty more quickly than any country in the history of the world. The last week has been particularly complicated. The government expelled some of my Times colleagues who have done heroic work covering the coronavirus and Xinjiang detention camps, but I also flinch as I see President Trump trying to vilify Chinese people and find a scapegoat by renaming Covid-19 the “Chinese virus.” There are plenty of reports of anti-Chinese bigotry related to the virus, at a time when we should be trying to learn from China’s experience with Covid-19. It’s notable that a 40-minute rapid coronavirus test has been developed in China by Weihong Tan, a former University of Florida professor who taught in the U.S. for 24 years but returned to China last year because of Trump’s harsher climate for Chinese-born researchers. As ProPublica [reports](~/AAAAAQA~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), that was a loss for America. Death of a Saint Decades ago, someone told me of a woman in Ethiopia named Dr. Catherine Hamlin and described her as a modern saint. I met her for the first time in 2003, and it’s true: She was a saint. I wrote a number of columns about her, and she appears in our book “Half the Sky,” and I hugely admired her. Catherine was an Australian gynecologist and very devout Christian who moved with her husband Reg to Ethiopia and sought to eliminate the horrible childbirth injury known as obstetric fistula. She later ran a fistula hospital in Ethiopia that now bears her name and that has trained fistula surgeons worldwide. [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-1) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTI4ODA4JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDMyMFcDbnl0QgoAH2LYdF5AkoayUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTI4ODA5JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDMyMFcDbnl0QgoAH2LYdF5AkoayUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTI4ODEwJmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDMyMFcDbnl0QgoAH2LYdF5AkoayUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Catherine died on Wednesday, at the age of 96, and will be buried beside Reg on the grounds of the hospital she built and ran. Few people have done so much good for so many; few have lived a life so dedicated to others. She inspired me. I remember only one time when I saw her the least bit exasperated. It was when I suggested that she was a saint, and she scolded me and said that she loved her work so much that it was never a sacrifice. [RIP, Catherine,](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8xOS9oZWFsdGgvY2F0aGVyaW5lLWhhbWxpbi1kZWFkLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMzIwJmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2OTM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjI0MjYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMjBXA255dEIKAB9i2HReQJKGslIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) and I was right. You truly were a saint! The Best Kids Books Ever! Lots of people have more time at home with their children now, and I hope you treasure it! One of the best things about young kids is the excuse to read children’s books — nominally to them, but also to yourself. A decade ago, I published my list of the [“best kids’ books ever,”](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAwOS8wNy8wNS9vcGluaW9uLzA1a3Jpc3RvZi5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9bmljaG9sYXMta3Jpc3RvZiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ua18yMDIwMDMyMCZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD00NSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjkzNyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIyNDI2JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzIwVwNueXRCCgAfYth0XkCShrJSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) and it makes me smile just to look at the old friends on the list. Freddy the Pig! Charlotte! And so on. I hope you and your kids enjoy these books as much as I did. And now [here’s my essay](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgV11iP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLW91dGNvbWVzLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMzIwJmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2OTM3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjI0MjYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMjBXA255dEIKAB9i2HReQJKGslIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) about what the worst-case outcomes are ahead with the coronavirus, and the best-case outcomes — and what we should do to tilt the balance toward the latter. 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