On Politics Poll Watch: A Two-Man Race

Bernie Sanders must now compete with Joe Biden’s new coalition. Can he count on Warren supporters? [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~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~~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TFaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjExJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [On Politics](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TVaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9wb2xpdGljcz90ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzIHdpdGggbGlzYSBsZXJlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjU2NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIxOTYzJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzA2VwNueXRCCgAlDdpiXtusW5xSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) March 6, 2020 Welcome to Poll Watch from On Politics. Every Friday, we’ll bring you the [latest data and analysis](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T4aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvZGVtb2NyYXRpYy1wb2xscy5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) to track the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Current state of the race No new polls that qualify for our chart have been released since Super Tuesday. [See more detailed data here.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T4aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvZGVtb2NyYXRpYy1wb2xscy5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RsaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MzMzNTEmbGk9Q04mbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOXzIwMjAwMzA2VwNueXRCCgAlDdpiXtusW5xSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NDUyODUwJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTgzOTIwJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Who’s up? Who’s down? Here’s the latest. [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvYWxleGFuZGVyLWJ1cm5zP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) By [Alexander Burns](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvYWxleGFuZGVyLWJ1cm5zP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) National Political Correspondent One week ago, Bernie Sanders had a double-digit lead in national polls. His closest opponents — Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg — were bunched up in a group well behind him. The rest of the candidates, including Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, were even further back. Since then, the race has been transformed. Mr. Biden’s [broad victories in South Carolina](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP4QBAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjAvMDIvMjkvdXMvcG9saXRpY3Mvam9lLWJpZGVuLXNvdXRoLWNhcm9saW5hLXByaW1hcnkuaHRtbD90ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzIHdpdGggbGlzYSBsZXJlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjU2NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIxOTYzJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzA2VwNueXRCCgAlDdpiXtusW5xSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) and on [Super Tuesday](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wMy91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9zdXBlci10dWVzZGF5LXByaW1hcnktd2lubmVycy5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) have propelled him ahead of Mr. Sanders in the [delegate count](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP4QGAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2ludGVyYWN0aXZlLzIwMjAvdXMvZWxlY3Rpb25zL2RlbGVnYXRlLWNvdW50LXByaW1hcnktcmVzdWx0cy5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). [Mr. Buttigieg](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T5aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wMS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9wZXRlLWJ1dHRpZ2llZy1kcm9wcy1vdXQuaHRtbD90ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzIHdpdGggbGlzYSBsZXJlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjU2NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIxOTYzJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzA2VwNueXRCCgAlDdpiXtusW5xSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~), [Ms. Klobuchar](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T4aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wMi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9hbXkta2xvYnVjaGFyLWRyb3BzLW91dC5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) and [Mr. Bloomberg](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T8aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wNC91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9taWNoYWVsLWJsb29tYmVyZy1kcm9wcy1vdXQuaHRtbD90ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzIHdpdGggbGlzYSBsZXJlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjU2NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIxOTYzJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzA2VwNueXRCCgAlDdpiXtusW5xSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) all dropped out of the race to [endorse Mr. Biden](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP4QFAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjAvMDMvMDIvdXMvcG9saXRpY3MvcGV0ZS1idXR0aWdpZWctam9lLWJpZGVuLWVuZG9yc2VtZW50Lmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~), while Ms. Warren [ended her campaign](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T7aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wNS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9lbGl6YWJldGgtd2FycmVuLWRyb3BzLW91dC5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) without issuing an immediate endorsement. With only Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders remaining as serious contenders, Mr. Sanders will face incredible pressure in the [next round of primaries](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP4QLAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2ludGVyYWN0aXZlLzIwMTkvdXMvZWxlY3Rpb25zLzIwMjAtcHJlc2lkZW50aWFsLWVsZWN0aW9uLWNhbGVuZGFyLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) to show he can compete with the coalition Mr. Biden so suddenly assembled. Our national polling average has not caught up with any of these developments. None of the pollsters that qualify for our chart have released surveys taken since Super Tuesday, and a few polls that we do not include have suggested a drastic shift in Mr. Biden’s favor. [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-1) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjA4JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMjA5JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTY0NzIzJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ It remains to be seen how high Mr. Biden might rise, and whether Mr. Sanders will be able to expand his political base: So far, no Democratic candidate has assembled support from more than about a third of primary voters at any point in this campaign. Now that it is almost a binary contest, Mr. Biden or Mr. Sanders could be in a position to construct an electoral majority of primary voters pretty quickly. If either man manages to do that, it could bring about a swifter resolution to the Democratic primary than most party leaders have been anticipating. Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders could well split the vote more or less evenly, leading to a drawn-out campaign fought over a few undecided voters. At the moment, however, all the biggest trends are in Mr. Biden’s favor, opening the possibility — for the first time in a while — that the former vice president could establish a dominant advantage over Mr. Sanders in a matter of weeks. More resources - [See our updated polling page](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T4aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyMC91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvZGVtb2NyYXRpYy1wb2xscy5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) with charts of national polling averages over time. - [Track the delegate count](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP4QGAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL2ludGVyYWN0aXZlLzIwMjAvdXMvZWxlY3Rpb25zL2RlbGVnYXRlLWNvdW50LXByaW1hcnktcmVzdWx0cy5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) and see who won each state on our primary results page. Drop us a line! We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-2) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzIzMjk3JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzIzMjk4JmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NzIzMzAwJmxpPUNOJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1DTl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Why Warren supporters aren’t a lock to get behind Sanders [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvZ2lvdmFubmktcnVzc29uZWxsbz90ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzIHdpdGggbGlzYSBsZXJlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjU2NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIxOTYzJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzA2VwNueXRCCgAlDdpiXtusW5xSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) By [Giovanni Russonello](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TbaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvZ2lvdmFubmktcnVzc29uZWxsbz90ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzIHdpdGggbGlzYSBsZXJlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjU2NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIxOTYzJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzA2VwNueXRCCgAlDdpiXtusW5xSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) Throughout the 2020 presidential race, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have seemed like reluctant foes. They [met with each other](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP4QFAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMTgvMTIvMTMvdXMvcG9saXRpY3MvZWxpemFiZXRoLXdhcnJlbi1iZXJuaWUtc2FuZGVycy0yMDIwLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) before starting their campaigns. They [had each other’s backs](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlbmF0aW9uLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlL2FyY2hpdmUvZGVtLWRlYmF0ZS1zYW5kZXJzLXdhcnJlbi8_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) at the debates, [until they didn’t](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP4QKAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMjAvMDEvMTQvdXMvcG9saXRpY3MvYmVybmllLXNhbmRlcnMtZWxpemFiZXRoLXdhcnJlbi1kZW1vY3JhdHMuaHRtbD90ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzIHdpdGggbGlzYSBsZXJlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjU2NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIxOTYzJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMzA2VwNueXRCCgAlDdpiXtusW5xSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). Most important, they agreed on how to confront the issues — boldly and structurally — if not always on the exact details. But Ms. Warren’s pool of voters, who are casting for an alternative after [she dropped out of the Democratic race](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T7aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wNS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9lbGl6YWJldGgtd2FycmVuLWRyb3BzLW91dC5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) on Thursday, generally doesn’t look like Mr. Sanders’s base. There is [reason to believe](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP4QOAWh0dHBzOi8vbW9ybmluZ2NvbnN1bHQuY29tLzIwMjAvMDMvMDUvc2FuZGVycy1iaWRlbi1jYW4tZXhwZWN0LW5lYXItZXF1YWwtZ2Fpbi1mcm9tLXdhcnJlbnMtZXhpdC8_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) that former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. could pick up nearly as many of Ms. Warren’s former voters as Mr. Sanders does. “Obviously the more strong liberal policy folks should break more for Sanders than Biden,” Paul Maslin, a longtime Democratic pollster, said in an interview. “But I don’t know that it’s going to be anywhere near unanimous. If Biden is over the hump and is now clearly the accepted candidate as the best to beat Trump, and there’s a coalescing of the party around that view, he’s going to gain all kinds of support.” There is certainly significant overlap between the core support of Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren, the party’s two leading liberals. He is particularly well positioned to usurp the kinds of older millennials and Generation X liberals who often favored Ms. Warren. Indeed, in a [Quinnipiac poll conducted early last month](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TraHR0cHM6Ly9wb2xsLnF1LmVkdS9uYXRpb25hbC9yZWxlYXNlLWRldGFpbD9SZWxlYXNlSUQ9MzY1NSZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9uLXBvbGl0aWNzIHdpdGggbGlzYSBsZXJlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNiZjYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01NiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNjU2NyZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIxOTYzJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1Ml9jbl8yMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~), when Mr. Biden was reeling from a weak performance in the Iowa caucuses, Ms. Warren’s voters were four times as likely to name Mr. Sanders as their second choice as they were to pick Mr. Biden. Even still, only a third of her supporters in that poll pointed to Mr. Sanders as a runner-up — and a lot has happened in the past month. Most other candidates have disappeared from the race, and much of the party has united behind Mr. Biden. Most troublingly for Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren’s support profile has roughly as much overlap with Mr. Biden’s as it does with his. Her base is heavily tilted toward college graduates, women, white people and middle-to-high-earners. It’s not as if Mr. Sanders has been unable to win votes in these demographics. For instance, his backers on Super Tuesday were just as likely to be women as to be men. But there is a working-class tilt to Mr. Sanders’s support that does not play out with Ms. Warren’s. He is diminishingly popular as you go up the income scale, whereas the opposite is true of Ms. Warren. If the average Warren voter is an upper-middle-class white woman, Mr. Sanders is in a tough spot: He has serious vulnerabilities among this group. In Massachusetts — where Mr. Sanders beat Ms. Warren in her home state by five percentage points — he won just one-fifth of white women with college degrees, making this his weakest such age-education-gender group. Ultimately he lost the state to Mr. Biden by seven points. “For most suburban or upper-middle-class white women, Joe Biden is a pretty comfortable place to land,” Mr. Maslin said. “There’s the Obama connection, there’s a sense of stability and experience that’s probably pretty helpful, and then to the extent that they’re being pragmatic, they probably see him as a potentially stronger candidate against Trump,” he added, though he noted that polling did not suggest that either Mr. Biden or Mr. Sanders was significantly better positioned for the general election. But the moderate former vice president isn’t an ideal choice for Ms. Warren’s voters, either. He has not articulated policy goals nearly as far-reaching or precise as Ms. Warren did. Many of her higher-educated, technocratic-minded voters may struggle to find either candidate convincing. Ultimately, Ms. Warren’s voters are likely to wash out, unless she makes [a big endorsement](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T9aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wNS91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9lbGl6YWJldGgtd2FycmVuLWVuZG9yc2VtZW50Lmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) that effectively pushes them one way or the other. And even in that case, it can be hard for candidates to break through with certain demographics that have proved stubbornly averse to them. [Poll Watch](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TWaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY29sdW1uL3BvbGwtd2F0Y2g_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) is our weekly look at polling data and survey research on the candidates, voters and issues that will shape the 2020 election. WHAT TO READ TONIGHT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wNi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9iZXJuaWUtc2FuZGVycy1pbWFnZS5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA [Article Image] Erin Schaff/The New York Times   [The Bernie Sanders Personality Test Some candidates try to soften their image to broaden their appeal. This one, not so much. But is there a “real” Bernie the public doesn’t get to see? By Glenn Thrush and Sydney Ember](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wNi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9iZXJuaWUtc2FuZGVycy1pbWFnZS5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9b24tcG9saXRpY3Mgd2l0aCBsaXNhIGxlcmVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuXzIwMjAwMzA2JmNhbXBhaWduX2lkPTU2Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE2NTY3JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjE5NjMmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAzMDZXA255dEIKACUN2mJe26xbnFIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T6aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wNi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9lbGl6YWJldGgtd2FycmVuLXJlYWN0aW9uLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [Article Image] Ruth Fremson/The New York Times   [‘America Needs Her’: Readers React to Elizabeth Warren’s Exit The news led to an outpouring of reactions across America, on social media, and in our comments section. By Isabella Grullón Paz](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0T6aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMy8wNi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9lbGl6YWJldGgtd2FycmVuLXJlYWN0aW9uLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) Were you forwarded this newsletter? [Sign up here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRgRV8NP0TZaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbmV3c2xldHRlcnMvcG9saXRpY3M_dGU9MSZubD1vbi1wb2xpdGljcyB3aXRoIGxpc2EgbGVyZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25fMjAyMDAzMDYmY2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTYmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTY1Njcmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMTk2MyZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDMwNlcDbnl0QgoAJQ3aYl7brFucUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) to get it delivered to your inbox. Thanks for reading. 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