The consequences of Trump’s actions on Iran

And already we’re less safe. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP4QfAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj91cmk9bnl0Oi8vbmV3c2xldHRlci8zY2ZjMDEwNC1iZmFjLTRkMzAtYWJhZS1mMjQ0MGQ4NDc0MDgmdGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyX25rXzIwMjAwMTA5VwNueXRCCgAiwHcWXjVAQutSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0S6aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP3RlPTEmbmw9bmljaG9sYXMta3Jpc3RvZiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ua18yMDIwMDEwOT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD00NSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNTA1MCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIwMTYxJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMTA5VwNueXRCCgAiwHcWXjVAQutSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)[Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-ad-marquee) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYxOTkwJmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ [NYTimes.com/Kristof](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TQaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9jb2x1bW4vbmljaG9sYXMta3Jpc3RvZj90ZT0xJm5sPW5pY2hvbGFzLWtyaXN0b2YmZW1jPWVkaXRfbmtfMjAyMDAxMDk_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTUwNTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMDE2MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) January 8, 2020 Demonstrators in Baghdad protesting on Wednesday.Khalid Mohammed/Associated Press [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TRaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY29sdW1uL25pY2hvbGFzLWtyaXN0b2Y_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) By [Nicholas Kristof](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TRaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY29sdW1uL25pY2hvbGFzLWtyaXN0b2Y_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) Opinion Columnist For now we’ve avoided a big shooting war with Iran, but it’s not over. The Iran nuclear crisis is now looming again, and I fear that there will be more revenge attacks, perhaps with an element of plausible deniability. [The Iran crisis is the topic of my column tonight](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMS8wOC9vcGluaW9uL3RydW1wLWlyYW4td2FyLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA), and President Trump is already campaigning on his killing of General Qassim Suleimani, running an advertising campaign saying that it has made America safer. I see the opposite. Here are the consequences so far: - Iran has cast off nuclear curbs so that it is now potentially within five months of having enough fuel for a nuclear warhead, down from almost 15 years when Trump took office. - United States forces may be pushed out of Iraq, allowing Suleimani to achieve in death one of his foremost goals in life. - American forces in Syria may be difficult to support without the military presence in Iraq, so some or all of them might pull out as well, another strategic victory for Iran. - The military campaign against ISIS is on hold, giving terrorists a chance to regroup. - Iran’s regime, which had been threatened by enormous protests at home and in Iraq, has been rescued by Trump’s actions. Iranians have rallied around the flag, and the Iraqi narrative has changed overnight from the bullying of Iranians to the bullying of Americans. - Instead of bringing troops home, Trump has had to deploy more to the Middle East at huge cost. We may think we can’t afford universal pre-K, but we don’t blink at lavishing billions of dollars on these military deployments. - North Korea has gained leverage, because it knows that Trump has little appetite for two international security crises at the same time. Kim Jong-un has also surely absorbed the lesson that he must never give up his nuclear warheads, as Trump will strike countries that lack nuclear weapons while schmoozing with leaders who have them. Meanwhile, I’m reluctant in [my column](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMS8wOC9vcGluaW9uL3RydW1wLWlyYW4td2FyLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) to assigned impure motivations to people. But I would note that Trump often imputes to others characterizations that seem to be more about himself. And back in the run-up to the 2012 election, Trump repeatedly accused Barack Obama of planning to start a war with Iran so as to boost his chances for re-election. Sigh. I also think we Americans don’t get Iran. We often think its people are particularly religious, but in fact the religiosity of the regime has turned many young people off religion. In my experience, Iranians are less likely to fast during Ramadan than people elsewhere in the Gulf, and many women would cast off hijab if they could. On my visits to Iran, I’ve found it an unusually pro-American country at the level of ordinary people. I tell a story about that in my column. [Please read!](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8wMS8wOC9vcGluaW9uL3RydW1wLWlyYW4td2FyLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-0) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYxOTg3JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYxOTg5JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYxOTg4JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ Some Reminders Our book, “Tightrope,” is coming out next week, so my column writing and newsletter emailing will be somewhat sporadic for a while. Information about our book tour destinations [is here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucGVuZ3VpbnJhbmRvbWhvdXNlLmNvbS9hdXRob3JzLzE2MjkzL25pY2hvbGFzLWQta3Jpc3RvZiNldmVudHM_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA). And if you can’t make a book talk, you can order a signed and personalized copy [here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TWaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc3RyYW5kYm9va3MuY29tL3RpZ2h0cm9wZS1wcmVvcmRlci0yMDE5Lz90ZT0xJm5sPW5pY2hvbGFzLWtyaXN0b2YmZW1jPWVkaXRfbmtfMjAyMDAxMDk_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NDUmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTUwNTAmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0yMDE2MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTIyMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~). What I’m Reading: I’m a longtime John le Carré fan, and over the break I read his latest, [“Agent Running in the Field.”](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0T-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucGVuZ3VpbnJhbmRvbWhvdXNlLmNvbS9ib29rcy82MTA5OTEvYWdlbnQtcnVubmluZy1pbi10aGUtZmllbGQtYnktam9obi1sZS1jYXJyZS8_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) It’s not his best, but it’s very solid and well worth a read. I also watched the new [“Little Women”](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubGl0dGxld29tZW4ubW92aWUvP3RlPTEmbmw9bmljaG9sYXMta3Jpc3RvZiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ua18yMDIwMDEwOT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD00NSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNTA1MCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIwMTYxJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMTA5VwNueXRCCgAiwHcWXjVAQutSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) movie with my family, and it was excellent; it also reminded me that “Little Men” is an even better book than “Little Women” (that was, I realize, a gratuitous provocation!). But if you enjoyed “Little Women,” either the book or the movie, do check out the book [“Little Men.”](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TyaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucGVuZ3VpbnJhbmRvbWhvdXNlLmNvbS9ib29rcy8yNTk4MzAvbGl0dGxlLW1lbi1ieS1sb3Vpc2EtbWF5LWFsY290dC8_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) [Continue reading the main story](#a11y-skip-1) ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTI4ODA4JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTI4ODA5JmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0RtaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTI4ODEwJmxpPU5LJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1OS18yMDIwMDEwOVcDbnl0QgoAIsB3Fl41QELrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~ You can connect with me on [Facebook](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP4QjAmh0dHBzOi8vbmwubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vZi9hL050VmRFMC1zeUV5WmxZR2FqUFNLUFF-fi9BQUFBQVFBfi9SZ1JmS0daYlAwUzBhSFIwY0RvdkwzZDNkeTVtWVdObFltOXZheTVqYjIwdmEzSnBjM1J2Wmo5allXMXdZV2xuYmw5cFpEMDBOU1pwYm5OMFlXNWpaVjlwWkQweE1UTTVOaVp6WldkdFpXNTBYMmxrUFRFMU9EVTBKblZ6WlhKZmFXUTlOakZrWlRobFl6ZzNOalkwTm1NNE9XSXpOMlF4WmpRMU1qUm1OVE5oTldZbWNtVm5hVjlwWkQwM056azRNVEl4TnladWJEMXVhV05vYjJ4aGN5MXJjbWx6ZEc5bUptVnRZejFsWkdsMFgyNXJYekl3TVRrd09EQXpWd051ZVhSQ0NnQW1XLUZGWGJpRW14WlNHMkZzWlhoaGJtUnlZUzV0TG0xaGNtTm9RR2R0WVdsc0xtTnZiVmdFQUFBQUFBfn4_dGU9MSZubD1uaWNob2xhcy1rcmlzdG9mJmVtYz1lZGl0X25rXzIwMjAwMTA5P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTQ1Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTE1MDUwJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MjAxNjEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyMjAyMDAxMDlXA255dEIKACLAdxZeNUBC61IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA) or [Instagram](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRf-PzAP0TGaHR0cDovL3d3dy5pbnN0YWdyYW0uY29tL25pY2trcmlzdG9mP3RlPTEmbmw9bmljaG9sYXMta3Jpc3RvZiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9ua18yMDIwMDEwOT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD00NSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xNTA1MCZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTIwMTYxJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MjIwMjAwMTA5VwNueXRCCgAiwHcWXjVAQutSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). 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