Canada Letter: What role do lawn signs really play in elections?

The lawn sign has proved to be remarkably resilient in the age of social media. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP4QSAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj91cmk9bnl0Oi8vbmV3c2xldHRlci84N2ZjNjlkNy05Mzc0LTRmOTItYjBmZS1lNTRmMjU1ZjZiNWQmdGU9MSZubD1jYW5hZGEtbGV0dGVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuZGFfMjAxOTEwMDU_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTAmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI4NzEmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzYxNiZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTJXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0SxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP3RlPTEmbmw9Y2FuYWRhLWxldHRlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbmRhXzIwMTkxMDA1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTUwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyODcxJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc2MTYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyVwNueXRCCgAlyGmYXUMvZKtSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0RxaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjA3NjE5JmxpPUNOREEmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOREFfMjAxOTEwMDVXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA [NYTimes.com/Canada](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0S3aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vY2FuYWRhP3RlPTEmbmw9Y2FuYWRhLWxldHRlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbmRhXzIwMTkxMDA1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTUwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyODcxJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc2MTYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyVwNueXRCCgAlyGmYXUMvZKtSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) OCTOBER 5, 2019 Who will be Canada’s next prime minister? Look to the lawn signs [Author Headshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0S-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvaWFuLWF1c3Rlbj90ZT0xJm5sPWNhbmFkYS1sZXR0ZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25kYV8yMDE5MTAwNT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01MCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMjg3MSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NjE2JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MlcDbnl0QgoAJchpmF1DL2SrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) By [Ian Austen](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0S-aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYnkvaWFuLWF1c3Rlbj90ZT0xJm5sPWNhbmFkYS1sZXR0ZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25kYV8yMDE5MTAwNT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01MCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMjg3MSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NjE2JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MlcDbnl0QgoAJchpmF1DL2SrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) I spent part of this week watching Andrew Scheer, the Conservative leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s top rival. And it was a week during which it became Mr. Scheer’s turn to be caught in this election’s seeming obsession with party leaders’ past lives, rather than the issues. Most Canadians probably now know more than they want about Saskatchewan’s licensing requirements for insurance brokers. [Read: [Justin Trudeau’s Conservative Rival Discloses He Has Dual U.S. Citizenship](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0TqaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxOS8xMC8wNC93b3JsZC9jYW5hZGEvYW5kcmV3LXNjaGVlci11cy1jaXRpemVuc2hpcC5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9Y2FuYWRhLWxldHRlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbmRhXzIwMTkxMDA1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTUwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyODcxJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc2MTYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyVwNueXRCCgAlyGmYXUMvZKtSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)] Conservative leader Andrew Scheer at a campaign rally in Brampton, Ontario, this week.Ian Austen/The New York Times Mr. Scheer has unquestionably locked up his core base of Conservative voters, and some analysts are predicting that his party may sweep Alberta on Oct. 21. But, as I wrote in my article, he still appears to be struggling to reach the larger block of uncommitted voters and disaffected Liberals. [Read: [Canada’s Conservative Leader Lacks Star Power, but Not Support](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxOS8xMC8wNC93b3JsZC9jYW5hZGEvYW5kcmV3LXNjaGVlci1lbGVjdGlvbi5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9Y2FuYWRhLWxldHRlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbmRhXzIwMTkxMDA1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTUwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyODcxJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc2MTYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyVwNueXRCCgAlyGmYXUMvZKtSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~)] But Mr. Scheer isn’t the only leader with struggles in this campaign. As Dan Bilefsky and I wrote, Mr. Trudeau has lost ground with a group that was critical to his victory in 2015: young voters. [Read: [Justin Trudeau, the Instagram Prime Minister, Struggles to Resonate With Young Voters](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxOS8wOS8yOC93b3JsZC9jYW5hZGEvdHJ1ZGVhdS1lbGVjdGlvbi15b3V0aC12b3RlLmh0bWw_dGU9MSZubD1jYW5hZGEtbGV0dGVyJmVtYz1lZGl0X2NuZGFfMjAxOTEwMDU_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9NTAmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI4NzEmc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzYxNiZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTJXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA)] As I travel around during this election, I’ve been struck by the notable resilience of lawn signs. The age of social media and mobile communications has not caused them to wither away. If anything, they seem more common than ever, which may be a factor in calls from some City Council members in Ottawa, where I live, to banish them from public property. ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0RxaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjA3NjE2JmxpPUNOREEmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOREFfMjAxOTEwMDVXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0RxaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjA3NjE3JmxpPUNOREEmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOREFfMjAxOTEwMDVXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0RxaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjA3NjE4JmxpPUNOREEmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOREFfMjAxOTEwMDVXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA Campaigns seem to spend a lot of time and money designing and handing out signs. And judging from the places I’ve been recently, many voters are happy to make a democratic statement in their front yard, in a street-facing window or on a balcony. But do lawn signs actually matter? To find out, I spoke with Janet Brown, who runs an independent polling firm in Calgary. She answered at least one aspect of that question in a project with Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, which is in the same city. Most polls, of course, come up with national or provincial popular vote numbers for each of the parties, but (readers in Canada can skip ahead) Canadians don’t vote for their prime minister or governing party. A general election here is a collection of 338 votes for local members of Parliament. Ms. Brown told me that there are a lot of hurdles to doing accurate polls for individual constituencies or ridings. “Lawn signs seemed to me to be a good proxy for support at the riding level,” she told me, adding that she persuaded Professor Bratt to join her in a “silly project” to test that idea. ADVERTISEMENT ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0RxaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAzNTA1JmxpPUNOREEmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOREFfMjAxOTEwMDVXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0RxaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAzNTA3JmxpPUNOREEmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOREFfMjAxOTEwMDVXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0RxaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAzNTA2JmxpPUNOREEmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPUNOREFfMjAxOTEwMDVXA255dEIKACXIaZhdQy9kq1IbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA So, during three special elections, or by-elections, held in Alberta in 2014 and one Calgary riding in the 2015 general election, they sent out teams to count lawn signs. They only recorded lawn signs on private property, not the ones plunked down beside roads and in parks. The result? They were a pretty good indicator of the final result in three of the four cases, and even the outlier was more of a near miss. Can lawn signs predict election results?Ian Austen/The New York Times What they didn’t find was any connection between lawn signs and voter turnout. They also concluded that signs are likely a poor indicator when there’s a last-minute surge of support for one party, like [the New Democrats’ win in Alberta’s 2015 vote](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP4QNAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tLzIwMTUvMDUvMjYvd29ybGQvYW1lcmljYXMvYWZ0ZXItYS1wb2xpdGljYWwtcmV2ZXJzYWwtaW4tYWxiZXJ0YS1hbnl0aGluZy1zZWVtcy1wb3NzaWJsZS5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9Y2FuYWRhLWxldHRlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbmRhXzIwMTkxMDA1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTUwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyODcxJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc2MTYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyVwNueXRCCgAlyGmYXUMvZKtSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). But the sign survey polling method proved so labor-intensive and time-consuming that Ms. Brown had little desire to try it again, and concluded that it would be impractical for determining a national vote. “It was quite an exercise,” she said. They didn’t attempt to answer the other big question about lawn signs: Do they affect the vote? “Nobody’s going to admit that signs change their vote,” Ms. Brown said, based on her polling experience. “But people have told me that they help them figure out who’s running.” She also doesn’t think that lawn signs will disappear anytime soon, whether they work or not. “There just aren’t a lot of tools at the disposal of local campaigns,” she said. One surprising, if anecdotal, discovery emerged from the study. They found that many of the households with little gardens of lawn signs for competing candidates are, as you might assume, politically divided. A good number, she said, are home to people who just can’t say no when asked if they would like a sign. Unfortunately, Ms. Brown was of no help with another great puzzle around campaigns in Canada. Unlike, say, presidential campaigns in the United States, bumper stickers produced and distributed by political parties here are an extremely rare, perhaps extinct, species. I welcome all theories as to why that’s the case: nytcanada@nytimes.com Please keep an eye out for special election-themed editions of Canada Letter over the next two weeks as we approach voting day. Trans Canada Clockwise from top left, scenes from “The Laundromat,” “El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie,” “Daybreak,” and “Living With Yourself.”Netflix - Our [recommendations for Netflix](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxOS8wOS8zMC93b3JsZC9jYW5hZGEvbmV0ZmxpeC1jYW5hZGEtb2N0b2Jlci5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9Y2FuYWRhLWxldHRlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbmRhXzIwMTkxMDA1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTUwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyODcxJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc2MTYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyVwNueXRCCgAlyGmYXUMvZKtSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) viewers in Canada this month include “Breakfast, Lunch & Dinner,” in which the chef David Chang and a celebrity guest explore the food culture of a different city in each episode. Also on the list is Steven Soderbergh’s “The Laundromat,” starring Meryl Streep. Around the Times Scientists on an ice floe this week in the Laptev Sea.Esther Horvath for The New York Times - Some 300 scientists will take turns on an icebreaker [that has been deliberately trapped in drifting ice](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxOS8xMC8wNC9jbGltYXRlL21vc2FpYy1hcmN0aWMtZXhwZWRpdGlvbi5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9Y2FuYWRhLWxldHRlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbmRhXzIwMTkxMDA1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTUwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyODcxJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc2MTYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyVwNueXRCCgAlyGmYXUMvZKtSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~) to study changes in the Arctic’s climate. - The secret to faster typing on a touch screen: [Be all thumbs](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0TYaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxOS8xMC8wNC90ZWNobm9sb2d5L3Bob25lLXR5cGluZy5odG1sP3RlPTEmbmw9Y2FuYWRhLWxldHRlciZlbWM9ZWRpdF9jbmRhXzIwMTkxMDA1P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTUwJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyODcxJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc2MTYmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyVwNueXRCCgAlyGmYXUMvZKtSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~). - Every year, [chimney sweeps, or “spazzacamino,”](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP0T3aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxOS8wOS8yOC93b3JsZC9ldXJvcGUvaXRhbHktY2hpbW5leS1zd2VlcHMtc2FudGEtbWFyaWEtbWFnZ2lvcmUuaHRtbD90ZT0xJm5sPWNhbmFkYS1sZXR0ZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25kYV8yMDE5MTAwNT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01MCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMjg3MSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NjE2JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MlcDbnl0QgoAJchpmF1DL2SrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~) from around the world gather in Santa Maria Maggiore, Italy. A native of Windsor, Ontario, Ian Austen was educated in Toronto, lives in Ottawa and has reported about Canada for The New York Times for the past 16 years. Follow him on Twitter at @ianrausten. How are we doing? We’re eager to have your thoughts about this newsletter and events in Canada in general. Please send them to [nytcanada@nytimes.com](mailto:nytcanada@nytimes.com?%20subject=Canada%20Letter%20Newsletter%20Feedback). Like this email? Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up [here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRfeu7IP4QXAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm55dGltZXMuY29tL25ld3NsZXR0ZXJzL2NhbmFkYS1sZXR0ZXI_c21pZD1ueXRlbWFpbCZzbXZhcj1jYW5hZGFsZXR0ZXImdGU9MSZubD1jYW5hZGEtdG9kYXkmZW1jPWVkaXRfY25kYV8yMDE5MDYyMiZ0ZT0xJm5sPWNhbmFkYS1sZXR0ZXImZW1jPWVkaXRfY25kYV8yMDE5MTAwNT9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD01MCZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMjg3MSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NjE2JnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MlcDbnl0QgoAJchpmF1DL2SrUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~). Need help? 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