David Leonhardt: A red warning sign

A Wisconsin election brings double disappointment for Democrats. View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Friday, April 5, 2019 [NYTimes.com/David-Leonhardt »]( [Op-Ed Columnist] Op-Ed Columnist Democrats received doubly bad news in a Wisconsin Supreme Court election this week. Brian Hagedorn, a conservative judge who also worked for former Gov. Scott Walker, seems to have beaten the liberal candidate, Lisa Neubauer. The margin — 0.5 percentage points, or about 6,000 votes — is narrow enough that Neubauer is requesting a recount. But a 6,000-vote lead rarely disappears in a recount. The first problem for Democrats is what Hagedorn’s win will mean for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. He will have flipped a seat previously held by a liberal, giving conservatives a five-to-two majority. Only one seat is up for election next year. (Judicial elections are officially nonpartisan in Wisconsin, but effectively become left-vs.-right races.) So even if conservatives lose a seat next year, they will keep their majority for the redistricting process after the 2020 census. That process draws boundaries for both congressional and state-legislature districts, which means it will play a big role in shaping future Wisconsin politics. Hagedorn’s apparent win, as the [Daily Kos Elections newsletter]( explains, “almost certainly means the Wisconsin Supreme Court won’t act as a check on the extreme gerrymanders that Republicans have perpetrated for years.” (My colleague [Emily Bazelon]( wrote about the ridiculousness of Wisconsin gerrymandering in a 2017 Times Magazine piece.) Blue blues The second bit of bad news for Democrats was the outcome’s political signal. Wisconsin Supreme Court races are statewide, and Hagedorn’s win suggests that Wisconsin remains up for grabs heading into President Trump’s re-election campaign. Republican voters now seem quite energized, and turnout was high in conservative areas, [like Waukesha County]( just west of Milwaukee. “The GOP’s win in Wisconsin Supreme Court race showed a base that’s waking up,” [Reid Wilson]( of The Hill noted. Conservative writers were celebrating the victory. In The Washington Post, [Henry Olsen]( wrote: “Simply put, if Trump wins Wisconsin, he is almost certain to win re-election. That’s because a win for Trump in Wisconsin would likely mean victories for him in swing states that he carried that are more Republican than Wisconsin — such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa.” The Wall Street Journal [editorial board]( wrote: “The left’s un­expected de­feat in the high-stakes and rel­a­tively high-turnout elec­tion is a no­table turn from the last two years in the bellwether state … Perhaps the emerging radicalism on the left is causing voters to think twice about returning them to power.” There are still reasons to consider Trump an underdog in Wisconsin next year. His approval rating there is only slightly above 40 percent, according to [Morning Consult](. And as [Craig Gilbert]( of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted, turnout in Milwaukee, which is strongly Democratic, often slips in off-year elections like this one. But Democrats would be mistaken to dismiss the Wisconsin result. Their big wins in last year’s midterms were foreshadowed by wins in state and local races in 2017 and early 2018, and there weren’t many downside surprises like Hagedorn’s victory. It’s a reminder, says [Amy Walter]( of The Cook Political Report, that Wisconsin is the “top battleground state in 2020.” ADVERTISEMENT If you enjoy this newsletter, forward it to friends! They can [sign up for themselves here]( — and they don’t need to be a Times subscriber. The newsletter is published every weekday, with help from my colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick. David’s Morning NYT Read [‘He Will Kill Us All and the Authorities Will Do Nothing’]( By SONIA NAZARIO The United States cannot erect a wall and expect women to resign themselves to being slaughtered. The Full Opinion Report [Donald Trump Is Trying to Kill You]( By PAUL KRUGMAN Trust the pork producers; fear the wind turbines. [Winning the War on Poverty]( By DAVID BROOKS The Canadians are doing it; we’re not. 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