On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Can Larry Hogan Beat Trump? Can Any Republican?

A faction of Republicans is getting serious about challenging President Trump in a primary. But the president’s popularity in his party will make it tough. [Trouble seeing this email? View in browser]( [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( March 4, 2019 | Evening Edition [Lisa Lerer] Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host. Illustration by The New York Times; Photo by Patrick Semansky/AP Larry Hogan is a guy who has spent a whole lot of time talking about running for president. But none of it, he says, is his idea. In recent weeks, Mr. Hogan, the Republican governor of deeply blue Maryland, has become the avatar of the G.O.P.’s “Never Trump” faction, carefully positioning himself as the reluctant savior ready to step in for his party should a big bombshell drop. Mr. Hogan is a popular politician with an interesting — and perhaps prescient — personal story: His father, as a member of the House Judiciary Committee, was the very first Republican to come out for President Richard M. Nixon’s impeachment, and was the only congressional Republican to vote for all three articles of impeachment. Mr. Hogan says he had never given much thought to being president before he was approached by prominent Trump critics like William Kristol, a leader of the motley crew of moderate Republicans, libertarians and foreign policy hawks who make up the Never Trump movement. “No interest, no thought, no desire, no plans,” he told me and my colleague Alex Burns in an interview last week. “I guess I just left the door open, saying, ‘You never say never,’” he said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next several months.” He was in Iowa today for a National Governors Association event. A trip to New Hampshire later this spring is being considered. Mr. Hogan is right: A lot can happen in the next few months, particularly given the news today that the House Judiciary Committee [requested documents from 81]( agencies, individuals and companies tied to the president, including his sons and son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Former Gov. John Kasich and former Senator Jeff Flake have talked about challenging the president, and at least one potential opponent is nearly in the race already — former Gov. William F. Weld of Massachusetts, who [started]( exploratory committee]( last month. ADVERTISEMENT But there are a few key facts to remember when you hear Republicans floating the idea: 1. No sitting president in the modern era has been successfully unseated in a primary. 2. Mr. Trump is still really, really popular among Republicans. [An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll]( released over the weekend found that nearly 90 percent of Republicans approve of the president. 3. Despite the best efforts of the Never Trump movement, the party establishment — the national committee, members of Congress and party activists — is firmly behind Mr. Trump. “They have the right to jump in and lose. They’ll lose horribly,” said the Republican National Committee chairwoman, Ronna Romney McDaniel, at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference this past weekend. “Have at it. Go ahead. Waste your money, waste your time and go ahead and lose.” That’s not to say a primary race would have no effect on Mr. Trump: Strong primary challenges contributed to the general election defeats of Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George Bush. But a strong challenge — meaning one that has a chance of actual success — is pretty unlikely. Irrespective of the president, both Mr. Hogan and Mr. Weld would most likely face a serious uphill climb to win over Republican voters, given their differences with much of the base. Mr. Kasich [failed to win any state but his own]( when he ran for president in 2016 as a more moderate voice. In our interview, Mr. Hogan criticized Republicans in Congress for having tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act without proposing a suitable alternative. He said that he believed Roe v. Wade, which made abortion legal nationwide, had been correctly decided. And he declined to express any personal view of whether the Senate had been right to confirm Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, a vote that awarded Republicans control of the Supreme Court for a generation. For his part, Mr. Hogan, a popular governor who [won with cross-party support]( says he fears the current administration is “shrinking” the party’s base, leaving Republicans at a serious disadvantage in their efforts to “reach a wider audience and to not alienate people and not to be as divisive.” He may be right. But that’s not an argument likely to win over Republican voters. Just ask Mr. Kasich. ____________________ Drop us a line! We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at [onpolitics@nytimes.com](mailto:onpolitics@nytimes.com?te=1&nl=politics&emc=edit_cn_2019030420190304). ____________________ Polls, polls, polls If you’re a regular reader of this newsletter, you know we love dumping on early primary polls. At most, they are a decent gauge of name recognition — a metric that will quickly shift as candidates campaign. So we were really excited to see this far more enlightening question in the [NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll]( released over the weekend. The survey left off the names and asked about characteristics — say, “a candidate who is a woman” — as a way of testing voter biases. The results held some good news for the historically diverse Democratic field. Only 10 percent expressed reservations with an African-American candidate and 14 percent with a female candidate. Comfort with a gay or lesbian candidate surged to 68 percent, up from 43 percent in 2006. But the biggest takeaway could be bad news for a candidate who looks awfully like Bernie Sanders. Sixty-two percent of voters said they were uncomfortable backing a candidate older than age 75. Seventy-one percent expressed reservations with a socialist. Hmmm … I happen to know an aging socialist who gave a big campaign speech in Brooklyn over the weekend. ____________________ What to read tonight • Houses lay shredded and entire neighborhoods flattened in the wake of Sunday’s tornadoes in Alabama. [At least 23 people are dead, and several are still unaccounted for.]( • The Académie Française — the official guardian of the French language — is so exclusive that most of France’s greatest writers never made it in. [Now, four coveted lifetime seats are open.]( • We are living in a brave new world of high-tech veggie burgers. (Some even bleed!) But are they good for the environment? [How We Get to Next investigates](. ____________________ … Seriously R.I.P. [Dylan McKay]( … that is, Luke Perry. Riverdale with not be the same without you. _____________________ Were you forwarded this newsletter? [Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox.]( Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world. Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at [onpolitics@nytimes.com](mailto:onpolitics@nytimes.com?te=1&nl=politics&emc=edit_cn_2019030420190304). ADVERTISEMENT FOLLOW NYTimes [Facebook] [FACEBOOK]( [Twitter] [@nytimes]( Get more [NYTimes.com newsletters »]( | Get unlimited access to NYTimes.com and our NYTimes apps. [Subscribe »]( ABOUT THIS EMAIL You received this message because you signed up for NYTimes.com's Politics newsletter. 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